Over the next several weeks, we'll be covering dynasty prospects at every MLB position. I'll do my best to provide a thorough list with analysis for some of my favorite picks. But there may be a few blind spots, particularly in the lower minors and international leagues. If there is ever a player you think deserves mention, I'd like to hear about it. The surest way to contact me is via Twitter @BaseballATeam. I intend to actively cultivate and update these rankings, so we will re-publish after any major updates.

Dynasty and keeper leagues come in all shapes and sizes. While this series will cater to the deepest keeper leagues and standard dynasty formats, it's always helpful to stay a step ahead of the competition in any fantasy baseball league. I'll be considering two major criteria when attempting to rank these youngsters. Scouting reports are important. We need to know how likely a player is to even stick in the majors. Since we're talking fantasy baseball, expected 5x5 roto production is important, too. A player can be a top prospect due to elite defense, but if he has a limp bat, he won't be a sexy dynasty property. Austin Hedges is a prime example.

Most position-by-position series start at one either catcher or first base. But most top catching prospects are either defense-focused, or will quickly move from the position. There just aren't many Buster Poseys. First base isn't great either, since it's kind of a catch-all for bad-body, pure hitters, and many eventual first basemen like Joey Gallo actually enter the majors at another position. Nevertheless, there are some gems out there, so let's take a look at the current crop of available 1B prospects.

Note: The statistics reported are for the listed level only.

 

First Base Dynasty Rankings

1. Byung-ho Park (1B, Twins)
Stats: 537 PA, .348/.439/.731, 47 HR, 9 SB, 25.3% K rate, 12.3% BB rate
Age 29

The top dynasty asset at first base isn't even in the minors. Byung-ho Park plays for the Nexen Heroes of the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO). While it's not guaranteed, there is talk that he could be posted this offseason. The success of Jung-ho Kang should help major league clubs feel comfortable targeting him.

Park has three consecutive seasons with a four-digit OPS, including a career best 1.170 OPS last season. By way of comparison, Jung Ho Kang's platform year included a 1.198 OPS with 40 home runs. Kang has adjusted well to life in the majors with a .288/.360/.461 line and 13 home runs. Park is a more prodigious source of power. He's likely to retain 20-to-30 home run power while switching leagues. However, there is a lot more swing-and-miss in the profile, which certainly increases the risk of a bust.

If the Korean slugger is posted, he'll probably be regarded as the second-best free agent first baseman. Chris Davis is the big catch while alternatives like Mike Napoli and Justin Morneau are dead-cat-bounce options. It's hard to predict exactly how Park will adjust to life in the majors. Whoever inks him will be sure to offer every opportunity for success.

As many as 17 teams have scouted him. Most AL teams and any NL club without an established first baseman could show interest.

Update: On December 1st, 2015, Park was signed by the Twins. He will most likely function as the DH, as Joe Mauer is the regular first baseman.

 

2. Josh Bell (1B, PIT, AAA)
Stats: 132 PA, .355/.447/.509, 2 HR, 2 SB, 11.4% K rate, 14.4% BB rate
Age 23

Bell was actually an outfielder by trade, but the Pirates have long struggled with first base. The outfield is comfortably set with Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco so the club shifted Bell to first base this season. It's possible he may still see enough time in the outfield to qualify for fantasy purposes. Even so, defense is not his strong suit.

The switch-hitter is best against right-handed pitching per scouting reports. He hasn't shown much power in the minors, and PNC Park is notoriously pitcher friendly. As such, he offers an unusual fantasy profile for a first baseman. If his high OBP, low strikeout approach transfers to the majors, he'll look like vintage James Loney. That may sound like a knock, but Loney was a sneaky good fantasy asset over the last two years. Bell also has enough raw power to grow into 15 home runs per season.

He should have an opportunity to earn a job out of Spring Training, but an early May call-up is likely.

 

3. A.J. Reed (1B, HOU, AA)
Stats: 218 PA, .340/413/.590, 11 HR, 20.6% K rate, 11.5% BB rate
Age 22

The 42nd overall pick of the 2014 draft, Reed has done much to improve his stock this season. He offers a classic first baseman's profile with power, patience, and strikeouts. This year, he's bashed 34 home runs over 503 plate appearances split between High-A and Double-A. He was also a college ace, but he's not athletic enough for a position where he can show off his arm strength.

Of the Astros three first base prospects, Reed has the highest fantasy ceiling. He's also the farthest from the majors. Dated scouting reports from spring training say he'll need to prove himself at every level. His swing features an "arm bar," a mechanical quirk that doesn't often play well against elite offspeed stuff.

He's already passing his first test against Double-A opponents, and he may open 2016 in Triple-A. If he makes short work of that level, we could see him by the end of the 2016 season.

 

4. Jon Singleton (1B, HOU, AAA)
Stats: 435 PA, .255/.359/.497, 20 HR, 2 SB, 22.5% K rate, 14.0% BB rate
Age 23

It can be hard to remain patient with prospects, especially when players like Mike Trout, Carlos Correa, and Kris Bryant tackle the majors with little apparent effort. Sometimes, a good young player just needs time to make subtle adjustments to his game. It can even be as simple as mastering nerves or developing a better plan at the plate.

I say this because it's obvious that Singleton has failed in his first two stints. He's a career .172/.289/.333 hitter over 415 plate appearances. A high swinging strike rate coupled with a passive approach at the plate have conspired against him.

A patient plate approach is usually viewed as a good thing. The narrative is simple - hitter works the count, hitter gets better pitches, hitter succeeds. But in this era of elite fastballs, falling behind in the count can rapidly end at-bats. This seems to be what is happening to Singleton. He takes strike one, then falls to major league breaking balls.

I hope he'll learn to be more aggressive. He has the raw talent to pop 20 to 30 home runs with a high OBP. The best case scenario for his profile resembles Brandon Belt. With the help of a .362 BABIP, Belt has managed to produce 17 home runs, a .281/.356/.480 slash, and 127 R+RBI. Unfortunately, Singleton has a lot to figure out before he's even Ryan Howard or Adam LaRoche.

 

5. Josh Naylor (1B, MIA, R)
Stats: 105 PA, .327/.352/.418, 1 HR, 1 SB, 10.5% K rate, 3.8% BB rate
Age 18

Naylor was the 12th overall pick of the 2015 draft. He's also the only first baseman taken in the first few rounds. Of course, some of the other top hitters will eventually move down the defensive spectrum. The Canadian is sometimes compared physically to Prince Fielder (for what it's worth, he looks much less...uh...girthy). He's considered a solid pure hitter who should grow into a 30 home run ceiling.

He's a long, long way from the majors. If we see him in 2019, he will have developed quickly. Your league's specific keeper rules will determine if it's worth monitoring Naylor. He was owned before the draft in my dynasty league.

 

6. Dominic Smith (1B, NYM, A+)
Stats: 497 PA, .305/.354/.417, 6 HR, 2 SB, 15.1% K rate, 7.0% BB rate
Age 20

Most of the first basemen we're discussing are within a hair's breadth of the majors. But like Naylor, Smith is a long way off. The 11th overall pick of the 2013 draft hasn't posted awe inspiring numbers, but it's hard to be upset with his performance. Scouts expect to see more power down the road. He has an advanced plate approach and sprays the ball to all fields. The result is a high average hitter who should eventually grow into his power.

He's probably three years from reaching the majors, but he could eventually develop into a top five prospect. Owners in deep dynasty leagues can afford to be patient (I own him in my 20-team, 47 player league). Ideally, he'll start to creep above 10 home run power next season.

 

7. Max Kepler (1B, MIN, AA)
Stats: 463 PA, .327/.416/.543, 9 HR, 18 SB, 13.0% K rate, 13.2% BB rate
Age 22

Kepler may actually stick in the outfield. He has the speed and athleticism for it, but his arm draws very critical reviews. Given the Twins abundance of outfielders, I suspect Kepler will be forced down the defensive spectrum.

He was named the Southern League MVP this season. A 2009 international signing out of Germany, he has above average tools at the plate. He walked more than he struck out this season while posting a .215 ISO. He has enough speed and power to be a five category fantasy star. It's not clear if he'll stand out in any particular category. He strikes me as a high floor, moderate ceiling prospect.

I do expect to see some growth pains in the next couple years as he continues to adjust to professional baseball. When he was signed, he had very little baseball experience. Now he's on the cusp of becoming the top German born player in baseball (Aaron Altherr was also born in Germany).

 

8. Greg Bird (1B, NYY, MLB)
Stats: 72 PA, .254/.333/.429, 3 HR, 27.8% K rate, 11.1% BB rate
Age 22

Bird is the only player listed here who is actively playing for his major league club. An injury to Mark Teixeira has opened the door. Bird appears to be slightly overmatched at the major league level, but it could be a lot worse. He's striking out nearly 30 percent of the time despite a reasonable 9.6 percent swinging strike rate. Most high strikeout guys swing through pitches 12-to-15 percent of the time.

If his strikeout rate improves as I suspect, he should be a solid mixed league quality asset. Bird features 20 home run power with decent supporting stats. Expect decent run production and a .255 average. He's well and truly blocked in New York when Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez are healthy.

If Bird is freely available in your league, it's not a dynasty. It's not even a deep keeper league. There's nothing wrong with inquiring about him in trade talks, although I worry the asking price may involve more hype than substance.

Update: On February 1st, 2016, doctors recommended that Bird undergo season-ending shoulder surgery. He still projects be the top Yankees first base option for 2017, assuming he makes a full recovery.

 

9. Dan Vogelbach (1B, CHC, AA)
Stats: 298 PA, .279/.403/.439, 7 HR, 1 SB, 19.8% K rate, 17.4% BB rate
Age 22

Vogelbach feels like the ugly step child of these rankings. Some scouts believe first base could be too difficult for him defensively. One thing is certain, he's an excellent pure hitter. At 5'11'' and 250 pounds, he won't shock anyone with fleet feet. He's a candidate for a high average and OBP with 15-to-25 home run power.

He's completely blocked in Chicago, but he's a better fit for an AL team anyway. This may be the offseason we see him traded. If he lands with the right team, we may see him in the majors at some point in 2016. If he remains with the Cubs, he will only get a taste of action if something happens to Anthony Rizzo.

 

Names To Watch

It all goes downhill from here. Most of these players will probably taste the majors at some point. A few of these guys may be major league regulars, but I'm not betting on star-quality production. That said, a list of 14 players who should get a taste of the majors will probably produce a surprise or two.

Some of the below players are well-regarded by multiple outlets. I'm a little down on them for a variety of reasons:

 

Casey Gillaspie (1B, TBR, A+)

The next scouting report I acquire on Casey Gillaspie could encourage me to rank him higher. I'll profile him in detail the next time we talk about first basemen.

Ronald Guzman (1B, TEX, A+)

Guzman is one of those prospects whose tools outstrip the production. He managed just 12 home runs across two levels (551 PA). Scouts do think he'll have a major league quality bat, but it might play fringy at first base. With teams giving regular work to players like James Loney and Mark Reynolds, there should be a role for Guzman somewhere.

Sam Travis (1B, BOS, AA)

Travis could jump up the list in 2016. I'm down on him due to a lack of power (like Guzman). Travis did swipe 19 bases which would be massively helpful in most fantasy formats. First basemen who can run can win fantasy championships. Travis is said to have plus power.

Matt Olson (1B, OAK, AA)

Olson is one of the Athletics' top prospects. The reports I've read seem to say Quad-A bat even while hyping him as a regular. Of course, Brandon Moss was a Quad-A bat at one point. It's important to understand that expectations for prospects can be very fluid.

Cody Bellinger (1B, LAD, A+)

Bellinger is a big upside play after popping 30 home runs in High-A. He also stole 10 bases. Scouting reports are a little thin on him at the moment.

Richie Shaffer (1B/3B, TBR, AAA)

Shaffer has experienced some modest success in 46 major league plate appearances. He has three home runs to go with a .220/.319/.463 line. Strikeouts may prevent him from becoming a major league regular.

Christian Walker (1B, BAL, AAA)

Walker looks like a Quad-A first baseman. But sometimes those players turn into Moss or Chris Colabello.

Bobby Bradley (1B, CLE, A)

Bradley is a young 19 and hit 27 home runs in Low-A, but he has massive contact problems and serious power. He also posted a 31.8 percent strikeout rate. He could be a less exciting version of Gallo.

Nellie Rodriguez (1B, CLE, AA)

Rodriguez thrived at High-A, but then flopped in 100 plate appearance at Double-A. The profile feels similar to Walker.

Jesus Aguilar (1B, CLE, AAA)

This feels like a cluster of Indians. Aguilar can't get closer to the majors. He's hit well at Triple-A in two consecutive seasons, but the club isn't eager to give him a look.

Rowdy Tellez (1B, TOR, A+)

I may be underrating Tellez. He is talked about as a taller, slightly more athletic Vogelbach. But he is a little farther from the majors and has more to prove. We'll see if the strikeout rate remains below 20 percent once he tests Double-A.

Tyler White (1B/3B, HOU, AAA)

White isn't viewed as a prospect by many, but his minor league numbers are interesting. He walked more than he struck out at two levels while popping 14 home runs in 490 plate appearances.

Rhys Hoskins (1B, PHI, A+)

Hoskins has big numbers and raw power, but he'll need to find more power in the upper minors.

Rangel Ravelo (1B/3B, OAK, AAA)

Ravelo is adjacent to the majors but lacks typical first base power. He missed a big chunk of 2015 due to a wrist injury.

Jake Bauers (1B, TBR, A+)

Bauers is said to be near his physical ceiling despite playing in his age 19 season. He hit 11 home runs and stole eight bases across two levels (530 PA). Developing a more advanced feel for hitting could help him move up the ladder.

Chris Shaw (1B, SFG, A-)

The 31st overall pick of the 2015 draft, Shaw knocked 12 home runs in 200 plate appearances in Low-A. Scouting reports are a little sparse at the moment.

Trey Mancini (1B, BAL, AA)

A powerful all-fields approach led to a 21-HR breakout this season. Prior to the season, his swing was described as long - scout parlance for "he'll strikeout too much against real fastballs." Recent reports are scant.

 

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