In sports, both real world and fantasy, injuries can really muddle a player’s overall value. Just like a Major League ball club may be bullish on signing a big name player who is returning from a significant injury to a big contract, a fantasy owner may hesitate to commit to drafting a big name player that is recovering from a major injury suffered in the previous season. Heading into 2016, one of the biggest names that presents fantasy owners with unprecedented volatility is Adam Wainwright.

Wainwright’s ADP is currently 73.1. Gone are the days of drafting Waino in the second and third rounds alongside guys like Felix Hernandez, Chris Sale, and Madison Bumgarner. For standard 10-team leagues, this puts Wainwright in roughly the mid-to-late 8^th round. For 12 team leagues, this ADP bumps him up to early-to-mid 7^th round.

Editor's note: Be sure to check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard, which is already loaded up with lots of great articles. Aside from staff rankings and ADP analysis across all positions, we also dig into MLB prospect rankings, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well.

Background

Even after Tommy John surgery in 2011, Wainwright was one of the most heralded fantasy selections in leagues across the country. This remained true even into 2015, despite his age and career workload knocking on the door. However those who decided to draft Wainwright in 2015 were met with severe disappointment when he ruptured his Achilles tendon in an April at-bat against the Milwaukee Brewers and would not return. In true veteran fashion, Wainwright declared he would be back before the end of the season shortly after he went down. St Louis Cardinals GM John Mozeliak had to taper Wainwright’s optimism, telling Wainwright to “pump the brakes” on his very public guarantee. Sure enough, Wainwright was not exaggerating; he returned to the mount of September 30^th, 2015 to pitch in a relief appearance against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Aside from the two major injuries, Wainwright really has stayed healthy. The only other injury is a finger strain that caused him to miss a few starts in 2008. His durability is often in question but looking past the two major injuries, we see that Wainwright has been solid.

But enough about his health and onto his baseball credentials. While he has never started a game in the World Series, he has two World Series rings. Wainwright has also finished in the top three for National League Cy Young Voting on four separate occasions and led the National League in wins in 2009 and 2013. He owns a career 2.98 ERA with a gleaming 121-67 record.

2016 Outlook

It is really difficult to discredit Wainwright’s fantasy relevance. You could make the case that Wainwright is getting old and that the workload plus the injuries are going to catch up to him sooner than later. After all, he has averaged 209.1 IP from 2007-2014. In those same years, his ERA was only higher than 3.00 three times, and he achieved a career-low ERA of 2.38 and a career-low WHIP of 1.03 in 2014. In that same year, Wainwright’s average fastball velocity was just 0.01mph lower than it was in 2009. His more famous pitch, his curveball, maintained stable velocity that was in line with all previous years of his career. If we are looking for warning signs to tell us that the 2016 Adam Wainwright is not the same Adam Wainwright we are used to, workload, velocity, and ERA are not them.

Nor can we look to the opposing batters’ average against Wainwright, which tied a career low of .219 in 2014, or the opposing BABIP, also a career low of .267. Thus far, it is hard to claim that Wainwright will not be his usual self in 2016.

The lone decrease in Wainwright’s numbers in recent years has been regarding his strikeouts, and it isnot that substantial. In 2014, his last full season he threw 179 SO, which was the second-lowest total since 2008. His 2014 K/9 (6.43) was also second lowest since 2008, and his K% was the lowest it has been since 2008 (18.0%). So he isn’t striking out as many batters as he usually does. So what? Often times, aging pitchers need to find ways to reinvent themselves. John Smoltz did it, why can’t Wainwright? It’s not like Wainwright was a strikeout machine to begin with. Instead, he is an intelligent pitcher with a diverse repertoire that can carve up the strike zone in a variety of ways.

Conclusion

The only negative thing we can say about Adam Wainwright’s fantasy outlook in 2016 is that we simply do not know what will happen following a season lost to injury. If the seventh, eighth, and ninth rounds come around and Wainwright is still on the board, my vote is to snag him. A pitcher like Wainwright does not come along very often and regardless of his age and injury history, he has still been able to accomplish great things on the mound. Buyers need to acknowledge that there is always the possibility that Waino is not himself, but I am willing to bet that will not happen for a few more seasons. He has a great supporting cast, he is the freshest he has been in a while, and 2016 may be the year that Wainwright wins Comeback Player of the Year.

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