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Happy Holidays! As we head into Week 16 of the NFL season, we have a full slate of games on tap for Christmas Eve. With the fantasy playoffs underway, every decision matters for fantasy managers.
The NFL – and fantasy football -– is a game of constantly moving parts, and just when you think you know everything, things can change.
In the interest of keeping fantasy GMs up to date and informed, I'll be putting some interesting nuggets in one convenient place. This info might be in the form of stats, trends, or injury news, but it's info that I believe can help fantasy managers win their matchups this week. Without further delay, here are 10 Things You Should Know Ahead of Week 16.
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#1. Minshew Mania
Philadelphia's MVP-contending QB Jalen Hurts has officially been ruled out for the Eagles' Christmas Eve divisional clash with the Dallas Cowboys. Enter Gardner Minshew, the man who inspired a thousand GIFs when breaking on the scene with the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2019.
Minshew has settled in nicely as the backup to Hurts in Philly. He played well in a Week 13 spot start last year, going 20 of 25 for 242 yards and two TDs in a 33-18 win over the New York Jets. Minshew's other 2021 start didn't go as well, as he and the Eagles were destroyed by the Dallas Cowboys in last year's regular-season finale while Hurts and the majority of the Philly starters were rested.
He'll get another shot at the Cowboys this week, and while Dallas boasts some of the best defensive numbers in the league (third in Total Defense DVOA, fourth in Pass Defense DVOA), last week's thrashing at the hands of Trevor Lawrence reminded us that they certainly aren't infallible.
Hurts has played at a legit MVP level this season, so you can't reasonably say that Minshew's presence isn't a downgrade for the fantasy prospects of A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and a returning Dallas Goedert...but Minshew is a proven commodity and can fairly be considered one of the better backup QBs in the NFL. He should prevent the Philly offense from cratering here.
#2. It's The Most Wonderful Time of the Year...For Derrick Henry
When you start hearing Christmas music at the store, remind yourself that it's Derrick Henry's time. The King always seems to get going in December. In 24 career games in the month of December, Henry has rushed for 2,286 yards and scored 24 TDs on 418 carries.
Henry has rushed for a combined 225 yards and two TDs over Tennessee's last two games. He might equal those numbers in a single game this week, as he draws a dream matchup against the Houston Texans, a team that ranks last in virtually every rush defense metric in 2022 and one that Henry dropped a ridiculous 32/219/2 rushing stat line on in Week 8.
#3. The Curious Case of Alvin Kamara
Do we believe that Alvin Kamara simply isn't good anymore? Is it the absence of Sean Payton? Playing with a bad quarterback? Spotty offensive line play? Taysom Hill's presence around the goal line? WHAT THE F*#K IS GOING ON IN NEW ORLEANS?
Maybe it's all those factors. Maybe it's none. Maybe it's a different combination of factors. Whatever it is...something hasn't clicked for Kamara and the Saints in 2022. Long one of the NFL's most explosive backs, Kamara has topped 100 rushing yards just once this year, while he's scored just three TDs this season (all of which came in the same Week 8 game).
With Mark Ingram on the shelf and just the corpse of David Johnson behind him on the RB depth chart last week, Kamara logged his most carries (21) since Week 3, although he still puzzlingly ceded 33% of New Orleans' offensive snaps to the washed Johnson.
Perhaps the spike in rushing attempts last week is a sign that the Saints are figuring out that it might be a good idea to, ya know, get Alvin Kamara the ball. We'll see...as he draws a juicy matchup against the Cleveland Browns this week.
#4. Running Up That Hill
The NFL record for combined rushing attempts in a single game is 108. While I don't know if the Baltimore Ravens and Atlanta Falcons will break that 74-year-old record this week, they might come close.
With both teams' starting quarterbacks sidelined, and with cold and windy weather expected in Baltimore, I don't look for any passing records to be broken with Tyler Huntley and Desmond Ridder at the helms of their respective offenses.
These already-run-heavy teams will likely force fans of old-school ground-and-pound football to smile as they pour a glass of wine, put another log on the fire, and remember days gone by this Christmas Eve, while fantasy managers trying to win a playoff matchup with Drake London or Mark Andrews will be off crying in a corner and simply begging for it all to end.
#5. Crashing Cardinals
In last week's "10 Things..." we talked about the trainwreck that was taking place in Arizona, with QB Kyler Murray out for the season, HC Kliff Kingsbury on the hot seat, and GM Steve Keim taking a health-related leave of absence.
Well...somehow things have actually gotten worse for the Cardinals since last week, as veteran backup QB Colt McCoy went down with a concussion in Week 15 and has been ruled out for a Christmas Day date with the Tampa Bay Bucs.
In his fourth NFL season, Baltimore Ravens castoff Trace McSorley will make the first start of his NFL career this week for the Cardinals. If you watch the broadcast I'm sure you'll hear terms like moxie, gamer, and gritty being freely tossed around to describe McSorley, though I'm not sure anything short of an actual Christmas miracle will help DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, and the Arizona passing attack this week. The most likely gift fantasy managers will get from the Cards is that James Conner will continue to garner a Santa's-sleigh sized workload.
#6. I Feel The Need, The Need For Shaheed
Chris Olave has put together a very successful rookie campaign. The Saints' 2022 first-round pick has exceeded all expectations this season, posting 940 receiving yards and three TDs on 63 receptions. Unfortunately, the dynamic rookie has battled a hamstring injury as of late. He has not practiced this week due to the hamstring issue and has officially been ruled out for a Week 16 date with the Cleveland Browns.
Olave hasn't been the only impressive rookie in the Saints' receiving corps. Unheralded UDFA Rashid Shaheed has made a noticeable impact in recent weeks. New Orleans' many injuries at WR have allowed him to get on the field and Shaheed's blazing speed has done the rest. The Weber State product has proven himself to be a big-play threat and has logged seven catches for 170 yards and a TD over the Saints' last two games.
With Olave – as well as Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas – sidelined this week against Cleveland, Shaheed's role in the Saints' passing attack should continue to grow. His game has some shades of old-school DeSean Jackson with a dash of Tyreek Hill sprinkled in...he's a boom-or-bust fantasy option and a whole lotta fun to watch.
#7. Dallas In December
I like to consider myself pretty knowledgeable about all things football, but I have to admit I was dead wrong about how the Cowboys have played down the stretch in recent years. Chalk it up to a personal bias, perceived notion, or just bad memory, but I was sure that Dallas had struggled mightily down the stretch of the regular season in recent years.
However, my memory was dead wrong, as it's actually been the opposite. Including last week's OT loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, Dallas is now a remarkable 9-2 in December games since 2020. The Cowboys will try to keep their holiday heroics going this week against their hated divisional rival, the Philadelphia Eagles. Philly will be without Jalen Hurts and has struggled to stop the run at times - though they beat a Dak-less 'Boys squad 26-17 back in Week 6.
#8. Movin' On Up In Motown
Dan Campbell and the Detroit Lions continued their beautiful, crazy, ankle-bitin' magic carpet ride with a grind-it-out 20-17 win over the New York Jets in Week 15.
While Campbell projects the personality of a meathead that would prefer a three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust offensive strategy, winning ugly, like last week, has been an outlier result for a Lions offense that's under-the-radar progressive. Detroit ranks fifth in the NFL in both average points (26.4) and total yards (383.9), while their 249.1 passing yards per game is eighth-best in the league.
The Lions have now won three in a row - and six of their last seven - to sit at 7-7. They have a chance to be the first team since the 1970 Cincinnati Bengals to start a season 1-6 and make the playoffs. With a remaining schedule that includes the Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, and Green Bay Packers, Campbell and his ragtag bunch of #Grit warriors shouldn't be counted out.
#9. Somebody's Gotta Win The NFC South - Part II: The Purge
In the brief lifespan of this article, the NFC South has quickly become our first running joke. So, let's check in on the standings of the NFL's worst division. Hint: It's glorious...
#10. Niners Stay Relevant
With Mr. Irrelevant himself at the helm, the Niners have managed to stay, well, relevant. Despite losing not one, but two starting QBs to season-ending injuries, Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers continue to roll.
San Fran has won seven straight behind a ferocious defense that is unquestionably the best unit in the league. The 49ers rank first in Total Defense DVOA and are allowing the fewest total yards (305.6) and points (15.0) per game.
The organization's mid-season acquisition of Christian McCaffrey has paid huge dividends, as CMC currently stands as the overall fantasy RB3. As for Mr. Irrelevant? Well, Brock Purdy has handled himself and this Niners offense just fine. Since entering the lineup for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13, the rookie has thrown for 612 passing yards and six TDs to just a single INT.
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