RADIO
This week is a completely different week and as a result, this article is coming out a little late as we wanted to get the bracket released before really making any assessments on the week. Now that it has been dropped, there are a few names that have shaken out and there are some groups that are front runners for the group of death. I am usually very stat heavy when it comes to betting, but I think this week we can let the Maniac take the wheel and rely on a gut feel or hunch based off golfers they are surrounded by.
We are going to ask a few questions that will guide us through a multitude of areas that impact how we go about handicapping an event. We look at historical odds of winners, traditional weather, skills that matter, and a few more interesting things. The goal of this article is to provide you with a high-level understanding of the nuances associated with this week's course and players.
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#1. What is the format this week?
We have match play this week, with this week being its Swan Song, as it has been removed from the schedule going forward. Golfers will play three matches to get try and escape their pod along. Below are the golfers in their respective pods with their DK pricing and their "Death or Divine" score that we will get to later in the article.
#2. How to escape your pod?
Golfers will play three matches before they advance to the round of 16. They are awarded 1 point for a win, 0.5 points for a draw, and no points for a loss. 3 points secures you a ticket to the next round, while we have seen golfers have to win a sudden death playoff to decided who of the two golfers with 2.5 or 2 points gets to advance. Having already beat the guy who you have to go up against in a playoff does not give you an advantage to make it through, you still have to duel it out in a playoff (it's a dumb rule).
#3. Birdies or Bogeys?
All that matters this week is the man across from you. We want golfers who can make a lot of birdies, while also limiting the amount of "freebies" you give your opponent when making a bogey. Sometimes a clutch 15 foot par save can just suck the soul out of your opponent if its the fourth one of its kind that day.
Birdie leaders in the field:
Best bogey avoiders:
#4. Weak or Peak?
Is the strength of the field at its peak or is it weak?
We have 8 of the top 10 players in the world playing this week.
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#5. Death or Divine?
This week we will switch out the weather for two pods that I believe are the death pod and the divine delivery pod. The death pod has the lowest average outright odds, while the divine deliver pod has the highest outright odds.
The Death Pod - Jon Rahm, Billy Horschel, Keith Mitchell, Rickie Fowler. It averages the lowest odds to win the event at 56.5. Billy Horschel's three opponents average as the lowest odds in the field by 6 points.
The Divine Pod - Will Zalatoris, Ryan Fox, Harris English, and Andrew Putnam. Their pod has been graced by angels, unicorns, and Sister Jean as it has an average odds to win the event of 120. Will Zalatoris has three opponents that average 148.33 to win the event with all three of them at 110-1 or higher.
#6. Distance or Direction?
Is distance or direction the most important stat off the tee?
I think distance is going to play a major role this week as there are holes that can be driven depending on the wind.
#7. Wedges or Woods?
Which proximity buckets are going to see the most divots this week?
I reverse engineered the proximity buckets based off the scorecard and diminished the importance of holes the closer they got to 18, as most matches will end by hole 16 or so.
This is how the adjusted proximity buckets will look for this week:
The best golfers from these ranges on a prorated basis:
#8. Sand or Grandstand?
Are errant approach shots going to land up in the sand or grandstands?
We are going to focus on golfers that have all around good short game as there are run off areas, rough, and bunkers guarding greens throughout the course. These are the golfers who excel around the green:
#9. Bermuda or Bent?
Are we putting on Bermuda or Bentgrass?
In match play putting can play a vital role in salvaging a hole. The best putters from inside 15 feet on all surfaces last 24:
The best putters inside 15 feet on Bermuda over the last 50:
#10. Model or Maniac
Are there golfers who the model is not liking as much as the Maniac?
Below are the top 10 golfers in my model:
These are a few golfers who the Maniac likes, who the model overlooked a little:
Hopefully, this helped you prepare for the odds dropping tomorrow morning! Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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