RADIO
We're back in the mines for Week 4 after an absolutely insane Week 3. Almost every stud and touted mid-range pick went off. I had friends texting me about how their safer cash game lineups would've won tournaments. The DraftKings Milly Maker winner had 301 points. Breathe.
I should say that if you haven't yet, go read Jason Bales' piece on here regarding DraftKings' best plays and some value guys.
I had a lot of reservations as Sunday unfolded about how to approach tournaments going forward. I started questioning if I was getting too cute with some of these picks. Did only listening to podcasts and reading expert articles leave me feeling like "so many" people were going to align with the sharps that I out-thought myself? Guys like Steve Smith were still under 3% owned. I went for a run, shook off the anomaly, and now we're back. Being process oriented, and not results oriented. That's how you keep your head on straight.
Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 10% off using code BALLER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!Not to say you shouldn't reevaluate your process though. In the end, it was a little bit of this, and a little bit of that. It was eye opening for me, personally. Everyone loves cheaper lottery picks though, and they can mean a jackpot for you if you hit. It takes being lucky and hitting on those 1% chances to tip tourneys over the top. Let's look at this week having digested the lessons learned to date.
Note - The Jets/Dolphins game is excluded for me, as I try to align this with the Millionaire Maker and its start time (which is 1 PM EST).
Week 4 Quarterback Sleepers
Sam Bradford, QB, Eagles: $6,000 - @WAS
When will I ever learn? Well, when the heck will the Eagles learn how to be a cohesive unit? Oh, they play Washington this weekend? Okay. Weather concerns are real, and that's giving me some trepidation about the game in general, not for fear that the game is cancelled (you would have ample heads up), just that the gusts, rain, and general field conditions make for a sloppy game. The Redskins have a decent run defense though, they've graded out positively according to PFF so far with a +2.3 rating, whereas their pass coverage grade is -5.9 (which was with DeAngelo Hall healthy). Now Hall is out, and the Eagles clearly have an issue running the ball and blocking effectively. They should utilize short quick routes and tire out the Redskins outmatched secondary. Also, it's worth noting that weather concerns might push off a lot more people from these guys and allow you to capitalize if it hits.
Derek Carr, QB, Raiders: $5,300 - @CHI
Derek Carr may very well be more owned than this column should see, but I'm banking on people chasing the marquee names, especially after Aaron Rodgers' crazy Monday night and the tier of Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer, and even Andy Dalton, drawing a lot of attention. There was a lot of hullabaloo regarding this year's crop of rookie receivers being held to an ungodly standard, but Amari Cooper has looked very strong so far. Mix in Michael Crabtree's "I'm not quite dead yet" resurgence as well as Seth Roberts coming on as a solid slot receiver, and baby, you've got a stew going. The Chicago Bears are ranked as the worst defense to date according to Football Outsiders, and though their system is still heavily integrating preseason numbers in order to operate off of a significant sample size, if you've seen them play at all you don't feel like you need much convincing. Carr's 2015 has seen him only turn the ball over once, as well as only taking one sack. He's looking the part, and he looks like a solid tournament play this week.
Other deep plays that might have higher ownership: Tyrod Taylor, $5,800 vs. NYG, Blake Bortles, $5,100 @IND.
Week 4 Running Back Sleepers
There's zero point in trying to spin Karlos Williams (RB, BUF - $3,400) as any sort of sleeper, he may very well be owned in 30-40% of Milly Maker lineups, but I'd feel bad not mentioning him as LeSean McCoy is out.
Melvin Gordon, RB, Chargers: $4,900 – vs. CLE
One of these weeks Gordon is going to win people a lot of money. This week has a great chance of being that week. The only caveat I'll really throw out there is that their offensive line is beaten up with four linemen on the injury report. That said, the Cleveland Browns have been awful against the run for years now, they are rated by PFF as the worst run defense of 2015 (-18.9), they just got gashed by Latavius Murray, and the Chargers are playing at home and looking to finally play a game where they control the tempo. They've fallen behind early in every game so far, and should want to get Gordon going. Gordon isn't consistent enough to trust in cash games, but if you take a tourney chance on him and he connects for two touchdowns, you've got great value here.
T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jaguars: $4,400 – @IND.
T.J. Yeldon is getting an incredible market share of Jacksonville's backfield work, and has a good chance at returning 4x value. Not to mention if Andrew Luck doesn't go for the Colts, I think Yeldon could provide amazing return in a game where the Jaguars won't have to abandon the run. I think I would look elsewhere if Luck plays, but Yeldon still might do well. The Colts have a decent run defense, but if Luck is out this game profiles a lot more like the Jags Week 2 tilt against the Dolphins rather than the Week 3 game against the Patriots. In Week 2 Yeldon was on the field for 85% of snaps, showing me that Jags OC Greg Olson wasn't blowing smoke when he said he wanted to run the ball a lot. Toby Gerhart is back, but he doesn't pose much of a threat and T.J. Yeldon should be a sneaky play in Week 4 if Luck sits and the Jags can control the game.
Other deep plays that might have higher ownership: Lance Dunbar, $3,600 @NO, Theo Riddick, $3,000 @SEA, Thomas Rawls vs. DET (if Marshawn Lynch news breaks that he is out/limited).
Week 4 Wide Receiver Sleepers
Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars: $3,900 - @IND
What is this? I've recommended multiple Raiders and all of these Jaguars?! What a time to be alive. Okay, so Allen Robinson should draw Vontae Davis, which leaves Hurns against a Colts secondary that ranks 22nd against #2 receivers according to Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). I've mentioned Bortles (and Yeldon), and if you're about that stacking life, Hurns is a prime candidate. Allen Hurns isn't exactly Eric Decker, but he's no slouch either. We saw what the #2 receiver could do against the Colts in a well managed game. Hurns actually has yet to post a DraftKings total this year that is under double digits. Surprising, but true. Marqise Lee looks as though he'll be sitting, he hasn't practiced at all this week. That said, do keep an eye on Hurns' status as he's been limited in practice with a thigh injury, but I think he plays. They'll need him with Lee banged up and Julius Thomas still not ready to return to action. Fire up Hurns in tournament lineups and hope for the Decker treatment.
Rueben Randle, WR, Giants: $4,500 – @BUF
Speaking of that DVOA stat, the Bills are 20th against #2 receivers versus being ranked 3rd best against #1 receivers. Now obviously I'm not saying Odell Beckham Jr. is a bad play, that guy is matchup-proof, but with Victor Cruz ailing again and the Giants being thin at wide receiver, Randle has to step up. The Bills also have a very strong rushing defense that gets to go against a subpar Giants stable of running backs. Rashad Jennings has done little to instill confidence in him and while Andre Williams has looked better, it's not enough to convince me they'll have success against Buffalo. The line is still banged up and NYG should attack through the air out of the shotgun formation. Saying should is a risky thing to bank on, but it's true. If the Giants want to win, they'll need Randle. Be there if he turns the opportunity into gold.
Other deep plays that might have higher ownership: Ted Ginn Jr., $3,400 @TB, Percy Harvin, $4,600 vs. NYG, Michael Crabtree, $4,600 @CHI.
Week 4 Tight End Sleepers
Plenty of people are going to try to work Greg Olsen and Martellus Bennett into their lineups with their plus matchups, but there are deeper options that could pay off handsomely.
Charles Clay, TE, Bills: $3,300 - vs. NYG
The New York football Giants have quite a few things they struggle with, but their linebackers in coverage are at the top of the list. Jon Beason coming back helps, but he is mostly in there for run defense. Young middle linebacker Uani' Unga is the guy who gave Jason Witten a five yard cushion in the end zone in the Week 1 collapse. The Falcons don't have any tight ends to speak of, but Jordan Reed posted a 6-96 line against the G-Men in Week 3. Charles Clay had a great catch and run last week, juking three defenders on his way to the end zone, showing that the knee is doing just fine and that his athleticism is underrated. The Giants do have a better than you'd expect run defense unit, and with Sammy Watkins out, Clay should see a decent amount of looks.
Eric Ebron, TE, Lions: $3,500 - @SEA
I know that they were without Kam Chancellor for the first bit of the season, so the horrid third worst DVOA rating against tight ends is skewed, but it's still noteworthy if you're looking for a contrarian type play below the Jordan Reed level. The Lions have yet to start firing on all cylinders as they continue to find a rushing identity (aka stop giing Joique Bell the ball) and Stafford leading the offense at less than 100%. Calvin Johnson and Richard Sherman should have an incredible battle, and if you buy into narratives this is a Golden Tate revenge game, but realistically the Lions are going to need Ebron if they want to win. It's not a pretty play, but he shouldn't be highly owned, and if you approach tournaments with that "if you're not first, you're last" mentality, he's a solid upside play. Brandon Pettigrew is still not participating in practice, which bodes well for Ebron's playing time. Fire him up if you want a realllll longshot flier.
Other deep plays that might have higher ownership: Coby Fleener, $3,200 vs. JAX (if Dwayne Allen is out/limited), Jason Witten, $4,400 @NO.
Week 4 Defense Sleepers
Philadelphia Eagles, D/ST: $2,700 - @WAS
They were here last week, and while the Jets mounted a late comeback, the defensive unit played well for most of the game on the road and Darren Sproles contributed a wonderful special teams touchdown for owners. The Redskins don't have the same weapons that the Jets do, and if the Eagles offense shows up and attacks the Redskins through the air (as I've said they should), the Redskins will have to abandon their strong running game early like they had to against the Giants. The Eagles' D/ST price didn't change, so I'm still going to advise that they're a solid play against Kirk Cousins here.
Oakland Raiders, D/ST: $2,600 – vs. CHI
Maybe you need that extra $100, and if so I'd suggest looking at Oakland. They get a home matchup against a broken Bears football club. Chicago's starting blindside tackle is out, Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery are going to be game time decisions, but definitely not 100%, and reports are coming out that they are open to selling off major pieces of their offense. You'd love to see Cutler and Jeffery both be out, but either way the Bears team is demoralized and on the heels of a humiliating defeat in Seattle. The Bears' defense is still in tatters and the Raiders offense seems to have really found something with their offensive pieces. The opportunities should be there for the Bears to either show their apathy or make dumb mistakes.
