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Hello RotoBallers and welcome back to Break The Slate, our DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Picks for Week 16! I appreciate you joining me in our season-long quest to find the best plays at each position for every DraftKings Main Slate.
Let me start by wishing you all Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! Due to the holiday, the NFL has shifted its main slate of games to Christmas Eve on Saturday, while Sunday will feature a three-game Christmas Day slate. This article will be focusing on the Saturday DraftKings slate, which features a full 10-game complement
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected DK points and ownership, overall upside/talent levels, and opportunity, as well as factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available on DK for Week 16. Also, be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups – let's Break The Slate together!
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DraftKings Quarterbacks - Week 16 DFS Picks
Josh Allen - BUF @ CHI ($8,500)
Even though Josh Allen's "floor" performances are still pretty darn good, we hadn't seen a true "ceiling" game from him in several weeks. That all changed last Saturday night, as Allen put forth a legitimate MVP-caliber outing against the Miami Dolphins in Week 15. Most of us didn't need reminding that Allen plays football like a Ford F250 with a rocket launcher mounted on its side, but just in case you did...that's still the deal.
The Bills' signal caller tossed four TDs while amassing 304 passing yards. Just for good measure, Allen added 77 rushing yards on 10 attempts. It all added up to 39.9 DraftKings points and marked the seventh time that he's posted 30 or more DK points this season.
Allen gets another smash spot this week against a struggling Chicago Bears defense that was just dominated by Jalen Hurts last week and grades out 31st in the NFL in Total Defense DVOA.
Geno Smith - SEA @ KC ($5,800)
Although the Seattle Seahawks have lost three of their last four, we can't place the blame on Geno Smith. The NFL's leading Comeback Player of the Year candidate has combined to throw for 1,197 yards and nine TDs since Week 12. Smith has averaged 22.55 DK points over Seattle's last four.
However, last week's 15.3-point outing against a rugged San Francisco 49ers defense was his lowest DFS output since Week 6. As a result, Smith's DK price tag has dropped and he comes in below $6k for the first time since Week 9.
I'm willing to buy the dip on Smith in what should be a good matchup against the Chiefs in Week 16. Kansas City has allowed the fourth-most DK points in the NFL to opposing QBs this season and stands just 25th in the league in Pass Defense DVOA.
Gardner Minshew - PHI @ DAL ($4,800)
This one is obviously dependent on Jalen Hurts' injury status. Hurts is currently considered questionable due to a sprain to his throwing shoulder that he suffered in a Week 15 win over Chicago. If he's unable to go, Gardner Minshew would get the call for this talented Eagles offense.
While the matchup against Dallas isn't great, Minshew is an experienced QB on a terrific offense with a dirt-cheap DFS price tag.
DraftKings Running Backs - Week 16 DFS Picks
Derrick Henry - HOU @ TEN ($8,600)
When you start hearing Christmas music at the store, remind yourself that it's Derrick Henry's time. The King always seems to get going in December and that's again been the case this year. Henry has rushed for a combined 225 yards and two TDs over Tennessee's last two games and has also been surprisingly good as a receiver out of the backfield by recording seven catches for 93 yards since Week 14.
With Henry's engine already revved up, he gets the matchup equivalent of the Autobahn this week. Henry will square off against a Houston Texans run defense that ranks last in the NFL in nearly every statistical category. He has already dosed the Texans once this year, going for 219 rushing yards and two TDs against the divisional foe in Week 8. This should be a terrific sequel.
J.K. Dobbins - ATL @ BAL ($5,800)
The oft-injured Dobbins has been a legitimate force since returning to the Ravens from a lengthy IR stint. Since getting back on the field in Week 14, Dobbins has totaled 245 rushing yards and a TD, going over the century mark on the ground in each of Baltimore's last two.
He'll have a chance to continue the streak this week against a soft Atlanta Falcons unit. Dobbins should flourish in this matchup in the Ravens' run-heavy scheme. The Falcons rank just 26th in the NFL in Rush Defense DVOA and are relinquishing 4.30 yards per carry to opposing RBs in 2022.
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DraftKings Wide Receivers - Week 16 DFS Picks
DK Metcalf - SEA vs. KC ($7,100)
We talked about Geno Smith in the QB section of this week's article and I'm also very interested in his teammate, DK Metcalf in this Week 16 spot. With Seattle's Tyler Lockett recovering from finger surgery, Metcalf will be the unquestioned alpha of this Seahawks receiving corps against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Since overcoming an injury scare of his own in Week 7, Metcalf has been a rock-solid producer. Over the Seahawks' last four he's seen elite usage. Even with Lockett in the lineup, Metcalf has averaged 10.5 targets per game since Week 12 and has turned that volume into production, averaging 20.07 DK points across Seattle's last four games.
We can expect a pass-heavy game script for the Seahawks in this projected game environment and Metcalf draws a sneaky-great matchup against the Chiefs. Kansas City ranks dead last in the NFL in Positional DVOA against WR1s and has relinquished a league-high 19 TDs to the WR position this year. Those that want to save salary this week can also consider Seattle's Marquise Goodwin, who should slide into the WR2 role in place of Lockett.
Jahan Dotson - WAS @ SF ($3,900)
A first-round pick in last year's draft, Jahan Dotson made an instant impact out of the gates this season, scoring four TDs across Washington's first four games of 2022. Unfortunately, Dotson's strong start was derailed by a hamstring injury that lingered for multiple weeks. The rookie has missed six games across his first NFL campaign.
After easing back into action in Week 10, Dotson was quiet for several weeks. However, he has reminded us of his first-round-level talent in Washington's last two, hauling in nine catches for 159 yards and two scores over his last two outings. Dotson sported a massive aDOT of 14.3 in Week 15 against the New York Giants. The rookie has also displayed a nose for the end zone and has recorded six TDs across his nine 2022 appearances.
The matchup against San Francisco appears brutal at first glance, but the Niners have allowed the NFL seventh-most receiving yards this season and stand just 30th in positional DVOA against supplementary WRs. Dotson's combination of talent and dirt-cheap price tag make him a standout way to save salary this week.
DraftKings Tight Ends - Week 16 DFS Picks
T.J. Hockenson - NYG @ MIN ($4,900)
I feel as though I've been banging the T.J. Hockenson drum loudly and consistently. While we haven't received a true ceiling outing from him yet, I'm still a big fan this week. Since he arrived in Minnesota on a mid-season trade, his volume has been elite.
Hockenson trails just Travis Kelce at the TE position in both total targets (58), average targets per game (8.3), and Air Yards (403) since Week 9. That high-level usage has helped him to amass 325 receiving yards on 39 catches over Minnesota's last seven - marks that also trail only Kelce at the TE position.
The matchup in Week 16 is a terrific one. Hockenson draws a Giants defensive unit that has struggled mightily against opposing TEs. New York ranks dead last in the NFL in positional DVOA vs. TEs and is relinquishing a substantial 8.32 yards per target to opposing TEs, which is tied for the fifth-highest average in the league.
Dawson Knox - CHI @ BUF ($4,100)
While it was a horribly sluggish start to the season for Dawson Knox - something that can likely be attributed to dealing with the tragic death of his younger brother during training camp - in recent weeks the Buffalo TE has started to become who we thought he would be in 2022.
Knox has hauled in 10 of 15 targets over Buffalo's last two, totaling 139 yards and a pair of scores since Week 14. Finally trending in the right direction, I'm willing to ride the hot hand with him at the always-difficult TE position against a Bears defense that's 31st in the NFL in Total Defense DVOA.
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