Wait Or Pivot Early? Fantasy Football Injury and COVID Decisions for Week 15

Scott Engel tells you how to handle challenging fantasy football Week 15 health-related decisions including starts/sits for players on the COVID-19 list.

We expected the first round of the fantasy playoffs to be easier to navigate with the bye weeks being done. Obviously, that is not the case now, and with games being rescheduled, new challenges have surfaced.

We help you cope with these circumstances, so playoff games can still be won in the face of adverse situations. Do keep in mind that this guide was published early Saturday, so some information will surely change.

The strategies and recommendations will remain useful throughout the remainder of the planning period for Week 15. Here are the burning questions and answers for the first round of the fantasy football playoffs related to health and safety protocols and injuries.

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What players are uncertain, and do I wait to play them?

One of my longstanding approaches to injury decisions that are unclear is this: “When in doubt, always go with the healthy player.”

That recommendation fully applies here for any players that have uncertain outlooks after Sunday’s games, whether it be for health and safety protocols or injuries. You should not risk taking a zero in these situations or pivoting to a much lesser player on Monday or Tuesday that would be a significantly less comfortable option than your choice in a Sunday matchup.

So it’s best to plan as if these players won’t be available unless published reports closer to 1 pm ET kickoff on Sunday indicate otherwise: Tyler Lockett, Odell Beckham Jr., Tyler Higbee (who had a very good matchup for Week 15), Terry McLaurin, Adam Thielen and Jarvis Landry. Lockett, McLaurin, and Thielen obviously stand out as the most important ones. Simply use players available in any earlier games.

What other notable players are impacted by these situations?

Tyler Lockett and Alex Collins have yet to test negative yet, Pete Carroll says.

Silver lining here to this postponement until Tuesday of the Rams game: increased chance Seahawks have Lockett and/or Collins plays now at LA.

— Gregg Bell (@gbellseattle) December 17, 2021

For the Seahawks, the assumption would be that DK Metcalf gets a bump in possible production because of a Lockett absence. That is not entirely true. Metcalf does not simply get a volume boost. He will also get additional defensive attention for sure. If Jalen Ramsey can return for the matchup, Metcalf faces that obvious challenge as well. So while you cannot sit Metcalf in most cases anyhow because of his potential to overcome a seemingly daunting situation at any time, his outlook could be a less optimistic one if Lockett is out and Ramsey is in.

On paper, the Rams have the seventh-best rushing defense, making this a much less friendly matchup for those considering starting Rashaad Penny. We will have to wait and see how the health and safety protocol situations ultimately affect the Los Angeles roster. Losing not just key starters, but also defensive depth, could make the road to success easier for Penny. Still, the league is postponing the game until Tuesday with the goal of many players becoming available, so don’t base your roster decisions too heavily on hope that Penny could face a thinner Rams defense. He remains a low-end RB2 for this matchup, where he will have to work much harder for his yardage.

For the Rams, there is now seemingly a legitimate chance that Darrell Henderson may be able to return for Tuesday’s game. Sony Michel has played well enough to stay in the mix when Henderson comes back, but now you cannot go with Michel as an unquestioned starter for Week 15. The matchup is not a factor here. It’s the chance that Michel could be relegated to a secondary role behind Henderson, even if he is getting 40 percent of the reps. Use a player with a more certain workload in an earlier game if you can.

Jalen Hurts has returned to practicing in full for the Eagles, so that seems to be good news for now, but if you can roster Gardner Minshew for possible fantasy insurance, go ahead and do so. Washington has the much larger problem with both of their top two QBs in danger of missing Tuesday’s game. So that is another reason to sit McLaurin, and the outlook of Antonio Gibson will be greatly dimmed. He could face stacked fronts, have low TD chances, and may not provide enough output even if Washington falls far behind. There will be far from any assurances he can catch a decent amount of passes out of the backfield in a negative game script, even if J.D. McKissic misses another game.

Thielen’s status obviously makes K.J. Osborn much less of an appealing option. There is not a major downgrade at QB for Cleveland if Baker Mayfield is out, but if Landry is not available, asking Donovan Peoples-Jones to operate as a No. 1 WR may be a lot to expect of a still-emerging player. Las Vegas is actually sixth-best in Fantasy Points Per Game allowed to WRs. That is because opponents will exploit the Raiders’ 26^th ranked rush defense, and the Browns can go extra run-heavy this week and succeed. They won’t have to necessarily add much extra to Peoples-Jones’ workload in terms of receptions, so he does not get too much of a boost and is still a fantasy WR4 play this week.

What are some possible pivots if I choose to wait?

There are not many at all, but if you insist on waiting for any of the previously mentioned guys to see if they play on Monday or Tuesday, put them in a flex spot so you can pivot to a player at another position. Here are some viable choices for those who want to dance with some danger after the Sunday games are completed.

Seattle: If Lockett is out, I can see Gerald Everett getting a bump in targets and catches, and he will certainly be a top option for TDs in the passing game. D’Wayne Eskridge is still a work in progress. I would expect Freddie Swain to be busier in terms of targets and catches.

Philadelphia: Jordan Howard will be back for the Eagles, and certainly should be Philadelphia’s top goal-line rushing option.

Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard will both play vs. Washington. (And my guess: they'll both be used often.)

— Zach Berman (@ZBerm) December 17, 2021

Cleveland: D'Ernest Johnson could get a decent amount of work in a good matchup as the complementary option to Nick Chubb.

If you need alternatives that still may be available on waivers in the Sunday games, here are some deeper considerations. Many of the more appealing options will be at WR. These are listed in order of preference and include obvious desperation plays at RB.

Wide Receivers: Gabriel Davis, Marvin Jones, Rondale Moore, Laquon Treadwell, Kendrick Bourne, Mack Hollins (if Jaylen Waddle is out), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Allen Lazard.

Running Backs: Jordan Howard, Adrian Peterson, Malcolm Brown, Brandon Bolden, JaMycal Hasty.

Tight Ends: Hunter Henry, Nick Vannett, Brevin Jordan (if active).

The Best Approach

Ultimately, the strongest recommendation we can reiterate is to not wait until after Sunday to add greater risks to your outlook in a fantasy playoff week. Go with the healthy alternative that plays earlier.

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