Welcome back, RotoBallers! Below you will find part one of our Week 13 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Pierre Camus (@pfunk00) breaks down the first half of the Week 13 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part two of this week's matchups analysis by Ben Ruppert (@Ben_Ruppert_21).

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

Editor's Note: New users that sign up on FantasyAces, make a $20 deposit, and enter any game will receive BOTH our full season NFL and NBA Premium Passes for free, a $119.99 value. Just email [email protected] with your new FantasyAces username - and boom, that's it! We will email you with your Premium Passes.

 

Week 12 Recap

Greatest Hits: Colin Kaepernick (QB, SF), Michael Thomas (WR, NO), Odell Beckham (WR, NYG)

Kaepernick must now be taken seriously as a weekly consideration, not just a streamer against bad opponents. He has more rushing yards this season than Todd Gurley, which may say as much about the Rams as the Niners. Michael Thomas isn't a sleeper any more either. It would be hard to argue that he isn't more valuable than Brandin Cooks at this point. OBJ didn't flop against the worst team in the league and rewarded owners who paid the high price tag to play him in daily leagues.

Greatest Misses: Devonta Freeman (RB, ATL), Melvin Gordon (RB, SD), Gary Barnidge (TE, CLE)

Devonta Freeman didn't have a great rushing day with 60 yards, but he found the end zone twice. Arizona's troubles now seem to be trickling over to the defensive side as well. Melvin Gordon was surprisingly underutilized, as the Chargers chose to attack the Texans through the air instead. Fantasy owners may as well give up on Barnidge since he is not producing even with McCown at QB. With four total catches in the last three games, he is droppable everywhere.

 

Eagles @ Bengals - Sunday 12/4 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Jeremy Hill (RB, CIN) - Running for 21 yards on 12 attempts when you're handed the feature back role wouldn't seem to inspire much confidence. Philly comes in with a top-10 run defense as well. But if you give Hill another shot, he just might come through this week. His home/road rushing splits are as follows: 170 yards, 2.65 Y/A, two TD on the road, compared to 474 yards, 5.71 Y/A, four TD at home. The fact that he caught six balls last week is a great sign that he will carry PPR value and isn't dependent on big runs or TDs. Others will fade him based on matchup and last week's stats, but he could surprise with a big game.

Darren Sproles (RB, PHI) - Ryan Mathews remains out, Wendell Smallwood did nothing to distinguish himself last week, but Sproles remains a focal point in the offense. The Bengals are in the lower half of the league in defending the run and allowing passing yards to running backs. If Sproles would score touchdowns (he has one all year), then he could be a stronger recommendation. For now, he is a value play in PPR leagues.

Matchups We Hate

Dorial Green-Beckham (WR, PHI) - Now that Nelson Agholor is out of the picture, DGB has the chance to attract more targets. Many expected big production from him against the Pack last week and he somewhat delivered with six catches for 82 yards. Cincinnati is much tougher against wide receivers, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game. It would be a mistake to count on a receiver, or a passing game, that is known for its inconsistency.

Andy Dalton (QB, CIN) - Dalton threw for 283 yards in Week 12 and is seventh among all QB in passing yards on the year. That's where the good news ends. The fact is Dalton hasn't thrown multiple TD in a game since Week 7 against Cleveland. He barely eclipsed 200 passing yards in Weeks 10-11 even with his star receiver on the field. A.J. Green and Gio Bernard aren't walking through the door this Sunday, so there is little reason to think he will provide QB1 value even in deep leagues this week.

Notable Players

Tyler Eifert (TE, CIN) - It appears Eifert will be the main inheritor of Green's targets. He caught five of the 11 balls thrown his way for 68 yards and a touchdown. He's a must-play if you own him, but be warned that Philadelphia allows the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this year.

 

Dolphins @ Ravens - Sunday 12/4 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Mike Wallace (WR, BAL) - If anybody should be seeking revenge in this matchup, it's the Dolphins front office. Wallace was paid handsomely to produce two mediocre seasons in Miami. Ultimately, Wallace may get the last laugh as he faces off against inexperienced Tony Lippett. He's been held somewhat in check since Steve Smith returned, but this week may prove to be another big game for the speedster. He is a high-ceiling WR3 that could provide big results.

Jarvis Landry (WR, MIA) - Landry hasn't done much to warrant fantasy consideration lately, but DeVante Parker's injury could lead to a spike in targets. Parker is looking less likely to play with each day, meaning that Landry will serve as Tannehill's safety net and big play threat. The touchdowns simply aren't there, as Landry has only scored twice this year, but he should bring in enough receptions to make him a solid play in PPR leagues.

Matchups We Hate

Jay Ajayi (RB, MIA) - It's too soon to completely jump off the Jay Train, but this is the wrong week to predict a turnaround for the breakout RB. Ajayi has seen diminishing returns the last three weeks against California teams (79, 77, 45 rushing yards). Part of that can be attributed to a lighter workload, but injuries to the offensive line are mostly to blame. The Dolphins are still not completely healthy up front and they now face the top rush defense in the league. Ajayi may be worth a flex spot in deeper leagues, but he is best avoided if possible.

Terrance West (RB, BAL) - While Miami's offensive line is in shambles, it's defensive front remains solid. Led by Ndamukong Suh, the Dolphins haven't yielded a 100-yard rushing game to a running back since Week 5. Since then, only Matt Forte has gone over 76 yards on the ground. West is losing snaps to Kenneth Dixon each week and may soon fall off the RB2 map.

Notable Players

Ryan Tannehill (QB, MIA) - His play has steadily improved over the course of the season, but his fantasy value is highly questionable at best. Tannehill's big game in Week 12 (285 YDS, 3 TD) came against the horrible 49ers defense. The Ravens will pose a much stiffer test, especially if the run game fails to generate anything. He could produce decent yardage out of sheer volume, but is not a recommended start.

 

Lions @ Saints - Sunday 12/4 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Willie Snead (WR, NO) - Snead has been a disappointment, even in PPR leagues, the past five weeks. He hasn't collected more than 56 yards in a game since Week 8. However, this week he gets to face the extremely beatable Quandre Diggs. According to Scott Barrett of PFF, Diggs is allowing receptions on 90.9% of balls thrown his way. The matchup is too good to ignore - find a way to put him in your lineup first and foremost among Saints receivers.

Drew Brees (QB, NO) - Brees hasn't done much this year, other than manage 3,587 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, and a 71.5% completion rate in 11 games. He's at home where he has thrown for three-fifths of those yards and 19 TD. The Lions give up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. He's worth every penny in daily leagues.

Marvin Jones (WR, DET) - He is questionable for the game with a thigh injury, but looks likely to suit up. His play has been questionable as of late, averaging 28 yards per game with no scores over the last month. To be fair, the Lions have faced tough secondaries in Houston and Minnesota twice in those four games. Jones saw a huge upswing in targets last game (11) but wasn't able to produce. The Saints are far more generous and the dome could play to his speed advantage. He may be worth a flier as a high-upside WR3 after others have written him off.

Matchups We Hate

Mark Ingram (RB, NO) - He surprised with another breakout performance last week (146 yards on 14 carries) after struggling in the previous two. Although, Ingram is still splitting carries with Tim Hightower and has been limited in practice with a toe injury. The Lions have been stout against the run, allowing just two rushing TD on the entire season. His arrow may be pointing up again after Week 12, but it is hard to imagine Ingram replicating that success.

Notable Players

Brandin Cooks (WR, NO) - Brees giveth and Brees taketh away. The supposed #1 receiver in New Orleans was stunningly shut out of the box score last week, even though the Saints scored 49 and Brees passed for 310 yards. Sean Payton said it a result of certain coverages, but it was still infuriating for fantasy owners. Chalk it up to bad luck and roll the dice on Cooks this week. He is at home again, where he does his best work. Others may turn away after Michael Thomas stole his thunder, which is exactly when you should look for value. He faces Darrius Slay, who has been by far Detroit's best defender, but all it takes is one big play for Cooks to be a "boom."

 

Rams @ Patriots - Sunday 12/4 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Malcolm Mitchell (WR, NE) - Mitchell is catching on as a popular waiver add, replacing the once-trendy Chris Hogan. Mitchell has scored in consecutive weeks and could do so again. The Rams are no pushover defensively, but Mitchell will face E.J. Gaines, who gave up a TD to Michael Thomas last week. He will probably see more action now that Gronk is out for the year, making him an interesting flex play.

Matchups We Hate

Jared Goff (QB, LA) - Jared Goff looked every part a pro quarterback last week, but he'll be facing a much different team this time around. The Patriots don't pick off many passes (five all year) but they don't allow too many either, ranking in the top half defensively against quarterbacks. Goff will have an unexciting day trying to solve the riddle of Matt Patricia's defensive scheme and isn't worth starting.

Kenny Britt (WR, LA) -  It doesn't look as if his QB will hold him back, as Goff showed a great deal of promise in his second start. Britt finished with 52 yards a touchdown against the Saints. The problem this week is the matchup against Malcolm Butler and the Patriots. Britt will see his share of targets, but may not be able to parlay them into fantasy points with Butler shadowing him. He is a fringe WR3 in deep leagues this week.

Dion Lewis (RB, NE) - Lewis is still working himself into game shape and hasn't surplanted James White as the pass-catching back like many expected. The snap for last week was Blount-27, White-26, Lewis-23. Even if he sees more playing time, he may not see much room to make plays. Only six teams have allowed fewer receptions to running backs this season than the Rams. Keep Lewis stashed if you picked him up anticipating value, but wait another week before playing him.

Notable Players

Martellus Bennett (TE, NE) - News of Gronk's impending back surgery puts Bennett back in the TE1 conversation. He has had his own issues with ankle and shoulder concerns, but is expected to play in Week 13. This isn't a great matchup, but the tight end in New England always has fantasy potential. Unless you happen to have a great backup you feel comfortable starting in his place, you should plug Bennett in as a Gronk replacement or high-upside streamer for more shallow leagues. If you're in a deep league and looking for a handcuff, A.J. Derby should be available.

 

Broncos @ Jaguars - Sunday 12/4 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Demaryius Thomas (WR, DEN) - Denver showed it has plenty of life in its passing game last week against KC, although it was Emmanuel Sanders who went off for 162 yards and a TD while Thomas settled for 60 yards. This week, Thomas is expected to be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey, which plays into the receiver's favor. Ramsey has struggled at times in his rookie year and may not be able to match Thomas' physicality. The caveat here is Trevor Siemian's health - he is questionable to play on Sunday. If Paxton Lynch winds up starting, downgrade Thomas slightly.

Devontae Booker (RB, DEN) - Booker hasn't looked especially impressive with the carries he's getting, averaging just 3.7 Y/A. He is still getting heavy volume, carrying the ball 24 times the last two weeks. The Jags allow the tenth-most rushing yards this season, coming off a game in which Buffalo ran for 153 yards. They aren't much better at home, allowing 181 yards to Houston in their last game at EverBank Field and 144 yards to Oakland the previous home game. Booker has shown a limited ceiling, but he should be dependable enough to play this week.

Matchups We Hate

Allen Robinson (WR, JAX) - Look for another down week by Jacksonville's star receiver. Denver's secondary has shut down Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper and DeAndre Hopkins this season, keeping them all out of the end zone with less than 60 yards. In fact, this is the first of three tough matchups A-Rob will face, making it tough to keep him in lineups as fantasy playoffs approach.

Notable Players

Julius Thomas (TE, JAX) - The former Broncos TE sat out last week with a back injury and his status is uncertain for Week 13. He had scored a TD in three of the last five games, although he contributed minimal yardage. If he plays, he could be a decent replacement in standard leagues for owners missing Gronk or Reed.

Trevor Siemian (QB, DEN) - It figures that after he puts up the second-best effort of his brief career, he may not play the following week in an easier matchup. Siemian is currently listed as questionable, so keep an eye on the injury report before utilizing him. That said, don't overreact to last week's performance. He was able to exploit busted coverages from Philip Gaines repeatedly, but may not have the same opportunities this week.

 

49ers @ Bears - Sunday 12/4 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Colin Kaepernick (QB, SF) - The secret is out - Kaepernick is no longer a fantasy sleeper. He threw for 296 yards and ran for 113 last week against the Dolphins. He has run for 373 yards in six games, topping running backs like Jerick McKinnon and T.J. Yeldon on the season. Kap is a high-floor QB1 each week and should find success against with the Bears' banged up defense.

Vance McDonald (TE, SF) - Since Kaepernick became the starter, McDonald has seen about six targets per game. Unfortunately, he's only catching 53.7% of those targets. He has produced some big plays though and has stayed above 45 receiving yards each of the last four games. With Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman out and Leonard Floyd questionable, McDonald could make big gains across the middle. Treat him as a low-end TE1 in 12+ team leagues.

Jordan Howard (RB, CHI) - The Niners did a good job limiting Jay Ajayi last week, but they have otherwise been horrifically bad at stopping the run. As the weather turns cold, Howard is running stronger, averaging 5.4 yards per carry in the last four games. The upside is too high to ignore; Howard is an indisputable RB1 this week.

Marquess Wilson (WR, CHI) - Wilson joined Cameron Meredith and Deonte Thompson as little-known Bears receivers to suddenly post a big game in 2016. Unlike the others, Wilson was in the mix last year and was moderately productive when Alshon Jefferey was out. Wilson led the way with 11 targets last week and seems to have Matt Barkley's confidence. If you're buying low on a Bears WR this week, Wilson is the best bet.

Matchups We Hate

Daniel Brown (TE, CHI) - Zach Miller's absence forced Brown into the starting job and he found the end zone in his first offensive action of the year. Don't assume he will start producing like Miller though. He caught just three balls for 24 yards, giving him nine receptions in his two-year career. The matchup looks tempting, but the 49ers are actually in the middle of the pack defending tight ends. He simply isn't worth the risk.

Notable Players

Carlos Hyde (RB, SF) - After a hot start, he's slowed down considerably. Hyde has been solid but unspectacular, totaling 110 yards in Week 11 and 95 yards in Week 12. He's only scored one touchdown since Week 6, however, so he isn't doing fantasy owners too many favors. If you've got him, he's still worth an RB2 spot in season-long leagues.

 

Texans @ Packers - Sunday 12/4 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB) - Finally, Jordan Rodgers' big brother is making a name for himself. Rodgers has gone over 300 yards in three straight games and gets home cooking for Week 13. Houston had been one of the better pass defenses, but have been exploited for eight passing TD the last three weeks since their bye. Rodgers should have no problem recreating his recent success.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR, HOU) - If you haven't given up on Hopkins completely, it may be time to reinsert him in your lineups. Hopkins has actually increased his receiving yardage each of the past four weeks. More importantly, only San Francisco has given up more TD to wide receivers this season. Like it or not, Houston will have to commit to passing frequently to keep up with the Pack. That bodes well for a revival week by Hopkins.

Jordy Nelson (WR, GB) - Davante Adams dominated the scoreboard last week, but Nelson still dominated the targets. Rodgers threw the ball Nelson's way twice as often as Adams, as Nelson finished with eight catches on 12 targets. Nelson has satisfied fantasy owners five straight weeks and should have low-end WR1 value again.

Matchups We Hate

Will Fuller (WR, HOU) - Fuller is back healthy and chipped in 60 yards last week, but he is yet to do anything on the road. In four road games, Fuller has a whopping total of nine receptions for 74 yards with no TD. You never know - this could be the week he makes a big play and scores for the first time away from home. It's not worth burning a roster spot to find out.

Jared Cook (TE, GB) - I'll put him in this space one more week just for good measure. Cook predictably failed to live up to his huge game in Week 11, catching one ball for seven yards in Week 12. Houston's defensive numbers against tight ends are remarkably similar to Philadelphia's, so it would be unwise to expect better results from Cook this time around.

Notable Players

James Starks (RB, GB) - Starks is dominating touches in the Packers backfield, but that speaks more of how often they are passing the ball than anything. Starks carried the ball 17 times and was targeted five times last week, but only parlayed that into 68 yards. Sadly, that total became his new season-high. He is a low-ceiling RB2 in PPR leagues, but is TD dependent in standard formats.

Akeem Hunt (RB, HOU) - Lamar Miller is nursing multiple injuries, putting his availability for Week 13 in doubt. Miller has played through pain before and is yet to miss a game this season, but he could be spelled more frequently. Hunt has been playing the backup role lately, making him Miller's handcuff. If Miller happens to sit out, consider sneaking Hunt into a flex spot in extremely deep leagues.