Week 13 IDP Rankings, Streamers, and Fades

December 5, 2020

Chris Gregory's Week 13 fantasy football IDP rankings at LB (linebacker), DL (defensive line), and DB (defensive back) plus top sleepers, streamers, and fades.

It is fantasy playoff time for many of you, and for others, it's the last week you have to make that playoff push. It isn't just a fantasy focused time, though. Many of you have tons of stuff going on that impairs your ability to focus just on football. Some of you are struggling with sickness or illness in your family. For you, we wish you the best and hope your life improves soon. Nothing, not even fantasy football, is more important than the health of you and your loved ones.

For others, there are less serious but still essential matters that still have you distracted from the fantasy playoffs coming up. Maybe you're spending every night after work driving to Target so you can stand in their cold parking lot and wait to see if they got one or two more PS5 systems in stock? Maybe you're busy trying to post bail after you inevitably used a Baby Yoda doll to brain another shopper who cut you in line for said PS5? Maybe you're crying on your toilet after finally realizing Santa Claus is a career burglar who has violated your home's security system dozens of times without ever being held accountable by the criminal justice system?

Whatever the reasons, many people who love fantasy football simply don't have the time to devote precious hours in December to their team. Luckily for those people, we are here to do that for you. For those of you in IDP leagues, I (specifically) am here for you. I will help you no matter what has you distracted… even if you did get drunk and throw feces at that mall Santa… anyways, point is that whoever you are and whatever you're doing in December, I've got your back with my latest fantasy defender ranks. So here is, without further ado… your early playoff and Christmas present… my Week 13 IDP ranks!

Top-25 Fantasy Defensive Linemen of the Week

DL Streamer of the Week: Preston Smith, Green Bay Packers

Smith started the year off slowly, disappointing some who expected him to improve on the 12 sacks he had last year. The Packers' less-heralded "Smith Brother" is trending in the right direction, however. Over the past three weeks, Smith has racked up seven QB pressures, two sacks, 12 tackles, and a fumble recovery for a TD. To make matters even better, Smith has the ideal matchup in Week 13 against an Eagles team that is allowing the most sacks in the NFL. If you know anything by now, it's that IDP players start their pass rushers against the Eagles.

While this Smith isn't an automatic starter in shallow IDP leagues, he projects as a decent fill-in for those looking for a bye week replacement in deeper leagues. You could do worse than taking a flyer on Smith this week, especially in sack premium formats.

DL Fade of the Week: Washington Football Team Pass Rushers

In no way am I telling you to drop Chase Young or Montez Sweat, nor am I saying you have to leave them on your bench this week. I am simply telling you that each of these young studs has a very tough matchup this week, which lowers their fantasy potential considerably.

While both Young and Sweat are incredibly talented players, the Steelers have a knack for taking opposing pass rushers out of the equation. The Steelers have allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL to date and always give pass rushers fits. That doesn't bode well for Young and Sweat, nor does the potential of an early and substantial Pittsburgh lead that lets the Steelers run the clock out late. However, even if this game is more competitive than many think it will be, the likelihood of these sack artists getting you big plays in Week 13 is relatively low given the opponent.

Top-25 Fantasy Linebackers of the Week 

LB Streamer(s) of the Week: Eric Wilson, Minnesota Vikings

Over his past four games, Wilson has been one of the more consistent fantasy LBs in the game. During that time he has accumulated 38 tackles, two PDs, one INT, and one sack. That isn't earth scorching production, but it's upper-echelon LB2 performance. Wilson could be in for another solid week against the Jaguars, too.

While the Jaguars are the third most pass-heavy offense in the league, that fact could actually play into Wilson's fantasy favor. Wilson is rarely taken off of the field on passing downs and is averaging 33.75 coverage snaps (snaps in which he drops into coverage) per game over his past four contests. Wilson has been targeted 26 times in those games, and we should expect that trend to continue against Jacksonville.

Mike Glennon targeted his TEs and RBs 16 times last week while averaging a shallow 6.7 YPA against a Browns Defense that was missing Myles Garrett. He isn't a particularly mobile QB, and while he has a strong arm, it isn't particularly accurate deep. Based on his work last week and in the past, we can expect the former NC State star to target both of Minnesota's LBs (Wilson and Eric Kendricks) multiple times this week. Wilson is a viable waiver wire fill-in for those looking to replace Devin White or Shaq Thompson, who are on bye.

LB Fade of the Week: Isaiah Simmons, Arizona Cardinals

Many of us were hoping that Simmons' stellar performance and increased usage in Week 11 was a sign of things to come. And why wouldn't it be? The kid cleaned up on tackles, made several big plays, and looked terrific while getting the most snaps of his career. Arizona’s coaches seemed to realize how well the Clemson product played in that game, too. So why not assume he would get consistent usage going forward?

He plays for the Arizona Cardinals is why not.

Despite Simmons killing against the Seahawks two weeks ago, the Cardinals decided to reign back his playing time against the Patriots. The rookie went from playing 68% of the plays in Week 11 to just 30% in Week 12. His playing time was cut in half despite him playing effectively yet again, which is a troubling prospect for fantasy managers who are trying to decide whether they can trust the uber-talented rookie.

While it's true that Simmons continued to produce for fantasy managers last week despite seeing his playing time cut, we cannot expect him to make a play on 31% of his snaps like he did last week. That rate is unsustainable for even the most talented of defenders. That's why, for now, we cannot trust Simmons in standard IDP leagues. Go ahead and play him if you are desperate or in a deep league, but if you have a championship on the line in a standard or shallow league, there have to be more reliable options out there.

Call for Patience of the Week: Roquan Smith, Chicago Bears

This week I received several social media questions about the impact that Akiem Hicks' injury could have on the fantasy production of Roquan Smith. It is a fair question to ask, considering that Hicks' absence had a significant impact on this Bears Defense last season and it could have been why Smith's production fell off this past week. So what's the answer to this reasonable query? Should you bench Smith until you know Hicks is back to full force, or not?

The direct answer to this question is… if you were relying on Smith prior to Hicks’ injury, you should still play him after.

In 2019, Smith played seven games without Hicks on the field. During the six full games he played without Hicks, Smith averaged 9.8 tackles per game, and he totaled two sacks and two PDs. In games with Hicks this season, Smith is averaging 9.6 tackles per game with two sacks and five PDs. The numbers for Smith with and without Hicks are almost identical, indicating that the Georgia bulldog’s poor performance last week was likely a result of good Packer blocking and nothing more.

Given the history we have here and the talent involved, Smith is still a clear LB1 in pretty much all fantasy formats. The only place Smith should be seriously discounted in the absence of Hicks would be in fantasy leagues that greatly reward TFLs. Tackles for loss are the only stat where Smith sees a consistent decline in production when Hicks isn’t on the field.

Top-25 Fantasy Defensive Backs of the Week

DB Streamer of the Week: Keanu Neal, Atlanta Falcons

Neal is a strong in-the-box safety whose best trait is stifling the opponent's running game. While the former Gator's upside is limited in Defense Premium leagues because he doesn't get you many sacks or turnovers, Neal is a very nice high-floor play in tackle dependent leagues this week.

On the season, the Saints are the sixth most run-heavy offense in the NFL. Over the past three weeks, they are the most run-heavy unit in football. With Taysom Hill as their starter at QB, the Saints have run the ball 67.2% of the time. They often utilize QB options and runs, which should allow Neal (who spends most of his time at the line of scrimmage) to clean up on tackles. Making Neal's Week 13 outlook even better is the script we saw between these same two teams just two weeks ago.

When the Falcons and Saints lined up last time, the Saints ran the ball 61% of the time, with 75% of those runs coming between the tackles where Neal makes his hay. Neal collected seven solo-tackles as a result of this game plan, and the Saints won. Since the Saint's run-heavy script has worked for them so far, once against these same Falcons, we can expect more of the same from them this week. That makes Neal a middle-tier DB2 in fantasy.

DB Fade of the Week: Malcolm Butler, Tennessee Titans

When facing what we call 'run-heavy offenses' this season (i.e., offenses that are in the top half of the NFL in run percentage), Butler has averaged just 3.8 tackles per game. The former Patriot hasn't helped you in those matchups by getting picks or sacks either, bringing you a goose egg in both categories against run-oriented opponents. This is a concerning trend, considering that Butler's opponent this week (the Cleveland Browns) is the second run-heaviest offense in the NFL.

To make matters worse for Butler is that the Browns' best active receiver is Jarvis Landry. That is terrible news because Landry comes from the slot on 45.8% of his snaps this season. Meanwhile, Butler tends to avoid the slot, playing there on only 4% of his plays this year. Butler hasn't even shadowed inside when the opposing team's best player resides there, like Tyler Boyd. As a result, it seems unlikely that Butler will follow the Browns' biggest target hog this week.

Given the lack of shadow we can expect on Landry and Butler's poor history against offenses like the Browns, it seems natural to fade the cornerback hard in fantasy this week. That's why the generous DB2 ranking that many are giving him doesn't make much sense to me and shouldn't to you either

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