Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings Analysis - Laghezza vs. Mariano Rankings Comparisons

September 6, 2025

Week 1 fantasy football rankings analysis for 2025. John compares his custom fantasy football rankings and projections to identify players he's higher or lower than consensus.

Just like that, football season's upon us. Seriously, how did that happen so fast? Regardless of the answer, it's high time we get down to business. Drafting's great and all, but the dirty little secret is most players wind up hurt or dropped — and it's our in-season decision-making abilities that truly drive success.

Couldn't be more excited to be on this fantastic RotoBaller team for the 2025 fantasy season — the guys and gals here are like family. But just like a real family, we don't always agree. As someone who generates custom player projections, I find myself consumed in my own little bubble at times. So much work goes into forming opinions; they can become too rigid. Not this time...

Every week, I'll conduct a comparative analysis by scraping our resident expert Nick Mariano's on-site consensus projections and pitting them against my own for any major differences. Enjoy our little fantasy clash of the titans, and feel free to let me know what you think on social media.

Week 1 Ranking Disputes: Quarterback

I'm Higher Than Consensus On Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (at JAX)

One of the major points of QB consternation all offseason, I'm buying in on the second-half sophomore breakout from Bryce Young. A classic case of "prospect growth not being linear", the former first overall pick out of Alabama rose to the occasion by lighting up the fantasy scoreboard in Dave Canales' system after the Panthers' Week 12 bye. Bryce Young's +0.24 EPA/attempt and five rushing TDs drove him to a top-5 fantasy QB finish in that timeframe. Any sort of continuation spells profit.

Will it continue into 2025? No one can say for sure, but the combination of improved efficiency with an increased willingness to take off for the market landed Young just outside my Week 1 QB1 range. He'll also get the benefit of facing a leaky Jaguar secondary, which ranked bottom-5 across the board as one of only four defensive units to allow +20 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs.

I'm lower on Justin Fields, New York Jets (vs PIT)

Until I physically see success with my own two eyes, color me green with skepticism on everything fantasy-related to the Jets if Justin Fields is under center. Sure, it's easy to dream on the rushing upside that thrust Fields into weekly relevance. But let's be honest — it's been quite a while since that happened. In fact, Fields hasn't rushed for more than 60 yards in a game since Week 16... of 2023!

Somehow, despite objectively poor advanced passing metrics in 2024, Fields' 93.3 Passer Rating and 64.3% Expected Completion Rate still represented career-highs. Yikes. Now he's off to command the Jets, who ran the least of amount of plays in the NFL last year. As if my mean expectations weren't bleak enough, Pittsburgh projects as a top-5 defensive unit with T.J. Watt on the field — and the Jets just lost former first-round OL Alijah Vera-Tucker. Fields could always scramble his way to success, but I'd rather park him on my bench while we find out exactly what we've got on our hands.

Week 1 Ranking Disputes: Running Back

I'm Higher Than Consensus On Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chief (at LAC)

No one stirs up more excitement for seventh-round RBs every summer than Andy Reid and the Chiefs. As best ball drafters spent all of August arguing over Kareem Hunt, Brashard Smith, and Elijah Mitchell, I was over here sliding Isiah Pacheco up ranks every week. Perhaps my forward-looking approach will prove too simplistic on this one, but by all intents and purposes, it should be easy to argue —we're talking about the lead ball-carrier in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense.

You won't find justification for bullishness on Pacheco in last year's spreadsheet, I get it. That said, the former Scarlett Knight posted solid back-to-back RB2 outings to start the 2024 campaign before a broken right fibula derailed the entire season. Camp reports are glowing, and the Chiefs face their most serious challenge for the division in recent memory. I believe Pacheco's now healthy, and we're getting the explosive ball of thunder we fell in love with during his rookie season. To me, all this adds up to one of this year's most undervalued draft assets with weekly top-10 RB potential.

Isiah Pacheco scores an opening drive TD for the @Chiefs.

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— NFL (@NFL) August 23, 2025

I'm lower on Breece Hall, New York Jets (vs PIT)

After a lifetime of disappointment, I could trash the Jets for hours — but this time, it's actually warranted. I spent all offseason screaming about how NYJ's skill players were being over-drafted, and now it may be too late. There are almost too many Week 1 red flags for Breece Hall to name them all, but we can try.

For starters, Fields projects to eat up a bunch of carries, including the most high-value touches at the goal-line (if they even get there). Then, failing to provide any sort of sufficient vertical threat, the Jets should expect at least eight defenders in the box on every single snap. I also mentioned earlier the huge injury blow struck with the loss of OL Vera-Tucker, which certainly won't help boost the lowest implied total on the slate, and that's not all. The nonstop drumbeats and flattering reports on backup RB Braelon Allen made him one of fantasy's most popular handcuffs. Something's gotta give...

Week 1 Ranking Disputes: Wide Receiver

I'm Higher Than Consensus On Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers (at SEA)

One of the biggest disparities in our entire exercise revolves around San Francisco's second-year wideout, Ricky Pearsall. Lots of love for the former Florida Gator centered around that massive two-game close to the 2024 season (14-210-2), but that's merely a piece of my puzzle. First, when all else fails, attach me to a Kyle Shanahan offense. It's no secret that after my Build-A-Breakout series, I'm extremely high on 49er QB Brock Purdy.

With a relative genius calling plays and a hyper-efficient QB under center, all that remains for this formula to succeed are opportunities. Now that Brandon Aiyuk's on the IR and Deebo Samuel Sr. departed for the nation's capital, there are over 125 vacated WR targets that need to be accounted for. Pearsall's impressed all offseason, leading the first-team in receiving share as a nice lead-up to a potential breakout season. Seattle's defense may not be a pushover, but SF still carries a 22.5 implied team total this Sunday — and it's got to come from somewhere.

Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall in an early rhythm

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— NFL (@NFL) August 16, 2025

I'm lower on Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions (at GB)

Some full-on fantasy fades sit more comfortably than others, and leaving +125 drafts with essentially zero Jameson Williams shares is making me squeamish. During draft season, it came down to cost, with Williams going at prices comparable to larger target hogs. While I'll concede Williams' obvious explosivity (2.11 Yards/Route, 40% Explosive Catch Rate), I've got both volume and situational concerns this Sunday.

Right off the bat, Williams plays a specific role, earning low-probability targets (image below) in a high-demand environment. Not many (if any) other comparable WRs by ADP, consensus rank, or DFS price posted just a single six-catch game in 2024. That's going to naturally limit any consistent fantasy floor, creating a reliance on hard-to-repeat efficiency and leaving me cold on Williams in general.

While I'm sure he's going to pop a few times this season, my guess is it doesn't happen Week 1 against these Packers. Not only did Green Bay finish 2024 top-5 in yards allowed, EPA/dropback, and takeaways, but the Cheeseheads just added game-wrecker Micah Parsons to an already stacked D-line. Constant pressure up front could disallow sufficient time for Williams and the Lions to complete deep routes this Sunday. You have to start him, just don't be too shocked if he disappoints.

Courtesy of trumedianetworks.com

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