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Who should I start or sit for fantasy football in Week 1 of the 2024 season? Andrew's potential fantasy football busts and duds to avoid for Week 1 lineups.
Week 1: When your fantasy football roster is the best in the world and you'll go undefeated en route to a championship (spoiler alert: it won't happen, but it's fun to pretend).
While you are all celebrating the return of football, your favorite Debbie Downer is returning for another season of weekly bust picks. Between tough matchups on paper and uncertain playing time, this list is filled with fantasy football sits and stars with potential downsides.
Below are my 10 fantasy football busts, or players that may disappoint, for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season.
Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.
Brock Purdy (QB, SF) vs. New York Jets
Brock Purdy is due for a regression season and it starts with a brutal matchup against the New York Jets.
Last season, the former Mr. Irrelevant played two games versus top-3 defenses against fantasy football quarterbacks, the Browns and the Ravens. Four interceptions and zero touchdowns against Baltimore on "Monday Night Football" removed Purdy from the MVP conversation. The October road trip to Cleveland wasn't much better.
#49ers QB Brock Purdy today:
12/27 pass completions
1 passing touchdown
1 interception
125 passing yardsBrowns defense is legit 🔥 pic.twitter.com/1RbVhUwbAl
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) October 15, 2023
Settled right in between those defenses were the New York Jets. They return four out of five starters from their secondary (Chuck Clark replaces Jordan Whitehead at safety) and the majority of their linemen.
Purdy was a fringe QB1 in fantasy football drafts this summer. If you're a fantasy manager who ended up with him as your starter, it's best to look at streaming options for Week 1. Baker Mayfield, anyone?
Kyren Williams (RB, LAR) at Detroit
Let's push the whole "Is Kyren Williams being the punt returner good or bad for fantasy football?" argument to the side for a minute and talk about the matchup. The Detroit Lions were one of three defenses to surrender less than 90 rushing yards per game to their opponents in 2023. They also didn't allow a single receiving touchdown to a running back.
In 66 percent of the snaps in the Rams' Wild Card loss to these same Lions, Williams rushed 13 times for 61 yards and caught one pass for nine yards. Eight PPR points won't cut it for a second-round pick.
That's not to say he won't make more out of his opportunities this time around, but it's reasonable to expect about two-thirds (maybe 70%) of snaps out of Williams in the season opener. Rookie Blake Corum will be involved, a contrast from the typical one-back system that Sean McVay has deployed throughout his Rams tenure.
Sean McVay said Kyren Williams will be the Rams' punt returner. Mentioned it's because of confidence in Blake Corum and Ronnie Rivers being able to spell Williams, and finding ways for Williams to impact the game in addition the run game.
— Stu Jackson (@StuJRams) August 27, 2024
The Lions are bringing back the same offense from a year ago and added some new faces to their secondary. It's still the point of attack for opposing offenses. Matthew Stafford will need to pass often to move the football and keep pace with Jared Goff and Co.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE) at Cincinnati
We know exactly how the Patriots plan to move the football on offense. Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt has detailed a run-heavy approach with a heavy emphasis on screen passes. The efficiency will be a concern, though.
The Patriots offensive line is projected to be among the worst in the NFL. Three starters are playing positions that they didn't play last season. False starts, bad snaps, and even stepping on the quarterback's shoe were on full display during the preseason. It has to play a factor in Jacoby Brissett starting over Drake Maye, despite coach Jerod Mayo saying the rookie outplayed the veteran.
Jacoby Brissett just got crunched. Might want to block KJ Henry on the edge, maybe? pic.twitter.com/ixoDI55qxR
— Ben Brown 🌻 (@BenBrownPL) August 26, 2024
Rhamondre Stevenson's touches will probably come early in the game. The Bengals are 7.5-point favorites in a game tied for the lowest over/under (40.5). That gives the Patriots the lowest implied point total on the slate (16.5). New England could fall behind quickly, taking carries away from Stevenson.
In PPR formats, feel free to flex Stevenson. It won't come pretty, but he could get a lot of dump-offs and screens in the second half (if Antonio Gibson doesn't poach too many). Don't expect a touchdown from the Patriots' lead runner this week.
Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT) at Atlanta
Three running backs in rotation, two offensive linemen banged up, and one recovering hamstring.
Look, this may very well end up the two-back, 50/50 division of labor that was witnessed a season ago. Najee Harris takes on the majority of the early downs. Jaylen Warren mixes in and takes the bulk of third downs. But there are sneaking suspicions that Cordarrelle Patterson may be more involved than originally thought. After all, new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith brought the veteran with him from Atlanta.
#Steelers HC Mike Tomlin on the RB rotation:
“In terms of how we divide the labor up, that’s gonna be week-to-week. We’ve got some really capable guys, and you throw [Cordarrelle Patterson] into that mix, as well.” pic.twitter.com/1M4Zu87sbf
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 3, 2024
Week to week you say? It would make a lot of sense for the team to favor Harris (and Patterson if we're going there) against the Falcons. Warren has been recovering from a hamstring injury suffered midway through the preseason.
Plus, the Steelers will be without guard Isaac Seumalo. First-round pick Troy Fautanu is beginning to practice again following his preseason MCL injury. If he plays, it's unlikely that he starts at tackle. There are reasons to be concerned about all Pittsburgh offensive players, but Warren tops the list.
Gus Edwards (RB, LAC) vs. Las Vegas
The drumbeat for J.K. Dobbins is getting louder and louder. Earlier in the offseason, it seemed like Edwards would be the lead runner with Dobbins filling in the gaps. Now, it looks like it could be more of a 1A/1B tandem.
The Raiders were solid against the run last season, especially once Antonio Pierce took over as interim head coach. Then, they added one of the game's best defensive tackles, Christian Wilkins. On the other sideline, Jim Harbaugh also brings a defensive-minded philosophy to his team.
That's the biggest reason this game is tied for the lowest over/under (40.5) of the week. While both teams may favor the running game, Edwards needs a touchdown to be a viable flex option. With a low-scoring outlook and uncertainty in the backfield, don't rely on Edwards, especially in PPR formats. Edwards' career-high mark for receptions in a season is 12.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF) vs. New York Jets
Just like his quarterback, the matchup stinks for the San Francisco 49ers' passing game. While Deebo Samuel Sr. moves all over the field, Aiyuk lined up outside on 82% of his offensive snaps in 2023. That means Aiyuk will see a lot of the league's top cornerback, Sauce Gardner, on "Monday Night Football."
That's if he's on the field for his full allotment of snaps. Aiyuk and the 49ers agreed to a contract extension on August 30 (Friday of last week). Throughout the saga, he was actively not participating in training camp and the preseason. He has all of one week to prove his body is in game shape and he's on the same page with the rest of the offense.
Brandon Aiyuk is rocking No. 11 for the first time this season 😤 pic.twitter.com/1w9lfl8nTI
— KNBR (@KNBR) September 3, 2024
Aiyuk is not a heavy-usage wide receiver. The new $120-million man saw 105 targets (30th among wideouts) last season. Via PlayerProfiler, he was second in yards per target (12.8) and yards per reception (17.9). The Jets allowed the fewest receptions of 20+ yards a year ago. If they prevent the long passes, Aiyuk won't have the volume to make up for it.
Calvin Ridley (WR, TEN) at Chicago
In a game between two offenses littered with talent, I'm worried about most of the skill players on the Titans and Bears. The Bears were the best run defense a year ago and Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears will split work (seemingly down the middle). DJ Moore is competing for targets with Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze and should be shadowed by star cornerback L'Jarius Sneed.
For as much as these two teams revamped their offenses, they also have a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball. Moore will see a lot of Sneed, but Calvin Ridley will match up against Jaylon Johnson often as well. Pro Football Focus graded the fifth-year cornerback as the best in the NFL last season.
A big play from Jaylon Johnson!
📺: #CHIvsMIN on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/J5tLNJHyh1 pic.twitter.com/DBjEBdFLtH— NFL (@NFL) November 28, 2023
DeAndre Hopkins (knee) is expected to suit up on Sunday, drawing more targets away from Ridley. And we've yet to see Will Levis prove he can support two fantasy wide receivers. He barely kept one, Hopkins, afloat in his eight full games in his rookie season. Ridley struggled to connect with Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND) vs. Houston
The Texans saw their championship window open and invested heavily in their defense. Danielle Hunter, Mario Edwards Jr., and Azeez Al-Shaair are the notable additions joining young talent Will Anderson Jr., Derek Stingley Jr., and Jalen Pitre.
Stingley was graded as one of PFF's top-5 coverage cornerbacks last season. The secondary allowed the second-fewest touchdowns (10) to receivers in 2023.
Top 15 CBs based on PFF Coverage Grade (2023):
1. Sauce Gardner (NYJ) - 90.8
2. Jaylon Johnson (CHI) - 90.4
3. DaRon Bland (DAL) - 89.9
4. Darious Williams (JAX) - 85.3
5. Derek Stingley Jr. (HST) - 84.9
6. Rasul Douglas (BUF) - 84.4
7. Michael Carter II (NYJ) - 83.3
7.…— uSTADIUM (@uSTADIUM) September 4, 2024
That's who Michael Pittman Jr. will see a lot of on Sunday. In their two matchups a year ago, Gardner Minshew II wasn't shy about targeting the Colts' top wideout (12 and six targets, respectively). 13 receptions is a respectable catch rate, but 100 total yards and zero scores aren't ideal for fantasy football.
Anthony Richardson will be the quarterback on Sunday. In his two full games, he targeted Pittman 11 and five times (eight and one receptions). A small sample size, sure, but Richardson is widely known as an inaccurate passer. He'll need a healthy target number again to convert catches into PPR points. If it's not PPR, Pittman is an even riskier start.
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI) vs. Tennessee
The aerial attack in Chicago could be the best in franchise history. Plus, Cole Kmet has back-to-back TE8 finishes under his belt. So, the math tells us that Kmet is due for an even bigger campaign in 2024, right?
If only it worked that way. The Bears added Keenan Allen and rookie first-round pick Rome Odunze to the wide receiver room. DJ Moore just set a career-high in yards (1,364). For good measure, throw running back D'Andre Swift in the mix to improve the ground game. That's a lot of mouths to feed.
But Kmet can be a red-zone, touchdown-or-bust option for fantasy football, right? He has 13 scores over the past two seasons. Those opportunities may not be there for him, either. Another offseason addition, tight end Gerald Everett, seems to have outplayed Kmet in training camp. He could be the tight end the Bears' new offensive staff favors on passing downs.
The preseason takeaways that matter:
1) Gerald Everett played over Cole Kmet in Bears third & long passing downs with Williams
2) Zamir White/Alex Mattison split snaps with Minshew
3) Rashee Rice led KC in routes/targets with Mahomes
4) idk, John Metchie looks sweet
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) August 26, 2024
All of that and the Titans allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends a year ago. Don't remember the Kmet name from last year and throw him in lineups. There are too many hurdles to clear for him to boom in Week 1.
David Njoku (TE, CLE) vs. Dallas
Similar to Purdy, David Njoku was drafted as a fringe top option at his position. The Browns tight end was the 10th tight end off the board, according to Yahoo! ADP. That means fantasy managers aren't locked in on using him as their starting tight end in Week 1.
The Dallas Cowboys allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position in 2023. The matchup also holds one of the lowest over/under lines (41) of opening weekend.
And what about the splits with Deshaun Watson? Njoku averaged 8.32 PPR fantasy points on four receptions per game in Watson's five full games. Those splits jumped to 14.5 PPR fantasy points per game on a 5.5-reception average with other quarterbacks (mostly Joe Flacco's doing). The trend continues back to 2022 as well.
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