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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Phoenix on Sunday. The site of the series' championship race in November, this early-season visit to the one-mile track always gives drivers a chance to see what they have and think about that return visit in November.
This race is even more important this year, because this is the first time that the Cup Series will hit the track with a new short track package. What kind of racing will that produce? What drivers will pick up the new package quickly? We'll find out Sunday.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for the Phoenix United Rentals 500 on DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 3/12/23 at 3:42 p.m. ET. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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Kyle Larson
Starts 1st - DK: $11,100, FD: $13,000
Until we see otherwise from this new package, I'm going to assume that clean air is important, which is why the first thing I'm doing is snagging polesitter Kyle Larson, as he'll have an early opportunity to lead laps. Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney, who started on the front row here in November, combined to lead 296 of the 312 laps here.
Sure, this new package could make it easier for cars to pass, but this is NASCAR, and I'm kind of always suspicious about changes working until we see them on the track.
Also, Kyle Larson's pretty good here! He's won here once and has top 10s in 58.8% of his Phoenix starts.
Tyler Reddick
Starts 12th - DK: $9,400, FD: $8,200
It hasn't been Tyler Reddick's season, as he crashed out in the first two races of the season, but he turned things around a little at Vegas, starting 34th but finishing a solid 15th.
Those struggles will likely lead to some fades of Reddick this week for "starting too high." And I get that—you want to see him perform before you play him when his starting spot is higher than any of his three finishes this year.
But Reddick was third in this race last year, and this 23XI car—then driven by Kurt Busch—was fifth. And our Jordan McAbee was keeping track of speed this weekend in practice and saw that Tyler Reddick has some of the least fall-off on long runs:
I really think this is the week Reddick shows why the 23XI move was the right one.
Alex Bowman
Starts 18th - DK: $8,600, FD: $8,500
Bowman's been incredibly consistent this season, finishing in the top 10 in all three races so far, putting him second in the point standings.
Now, he comes to a track where he's had...well, no success. Since finishing sixth here in 2016, Bowman has 10 starts here with a best finish of 13th. He's finished 30th or worse three times in that span.
So, that what we've got to balance: great performance this season with poor performance historically at this track. If Bowman started in the top 10, the poor history would win out, but starting 18th offers enough place differential upside for me to bet on that.
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Chase Briscoe
Starts 24th - DK: $8,400, FD: $9,000
Chalk play here, but chalk for a reason. Briscoe—whose 24th-place starting spot is really nice for place differential reasons—showed last year that he can be really, really competitive here. He won the first race here, starting sixth and leading 101 laps. To prove that wasn't a fluke, Briscoe came back in November and qualified third, led 11 laps and finished fourth.
He was also 4-for-4 in getting top 10s here in Xfinity. Sure, everyone'll be playing Briscoe, but they'll be doing that for a reason.
Aric Almirola
Starts 31st - DK: $6,900, FD: $7,500
Just a pure PD play here. I don't really need to know about Almirola's track history; just that he's a Stewart-Haas driver starting 31st.
But I guess I can't just leave it at that. Some other reasons to play him include that he ranked high on Jordan's long-run speed chart, and that he has six consecutive top 20 finishes here, including a sixth-place run back in 2021. Almirola should be able to deliver a strong showing.
Zane Smith
Starts 34th - DK: $5,200, FD: $4,800
Love Smith as a deep value play here. He didn't show a ton of speed in qualifying and starts way back in 34th, but his teammate qualified seventh, so it looks like FRM should have some speed.
Zane makes his third Cup Series start in this one, and he's run well in his first two races, finishing 17th at Gateway last year and 13th at Daytona this season.
But the bigger reason I like Smith? His lower-level success at Phoenix. Smith won here last year in the Truck Series and has three top fives in three starts. Will it translate to Cup? Not to that level, but Smith can deliver a finish around 15th if things go right.
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