Undervalued, Overvalued Sophomores: Fantasy Football Predictions for Second-Year Players

Dave Ventresca examines several overvalued and undervalued players second-year players in 2024 fantasy football leagues. Fantasy gamers should take this information into account before drafting these players.

Many fantasy football managers are scared to draft young players. It’s understandable as younger players can sometimes carry more risk as opposed to trusted veterans. However, many youngsters, specifically second-year players, can be vital assets to a fantasy roster. We have seen more second-year players take big leaps in recent years. Trey McBride and James Cook are good examples from the 2023 season.

While it’s generally been a good idea to target talented sophomores, we must also recognize that not every second-year player is a wise pick. There are times when sophomores fail to meet expectations. Such instances can derail your season. For our exercise today, we will be using NFFC ADP data to examine which second-year players are overvalued and undervalued.

Make sure to follow RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Here are several overvalued and undervalued second-year players in 2024 fantasy football drafts.

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

Overvalued Sophomores

Sam LaPorta, TE Detroit Lions - NFFC ADP: 27.41 Overall, TE1

LaPorta is coming off a fantastic rookie season that saw him finish as the TE1 in half and full PPR leagues.

It’s a Sam LaPorta touchdown 👏 pic.twitter.com/WWvolRG4W8

— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife) October 31, 2023

As a result, he is now being selected as the TE1 in fantasy football drafts. While that’s understandable, it might not be the best strategic move from a roster construction standpoint. Let’s compare some of LaPorta's 2023 advanced data (Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite) to a few tight ends going after him in drafts.

Sam LaPorta - NFFC ADP: 27.41 Overall, TE1

• TPRR (targets per route run): 26%
• YPRR (yards per route run): 1.95
• Target Share: 19.5%

Trey McBride - NFFC ADP: 49.39 Overall, TE3

• TPRR: 27%
• YPRR: 2.15
• Target Share: 18.7%

Mark Andrews - NFFC ADP: 54.99 Overall, TE4

• TPRR: 27%
• YPRR: 2.11
• Target Share: 20.8%

This data shows there is little difference between these three players, and it also suggests that McBride and Andrews might be better options. Nonetheless, it confirms they all are equally talented and can easily return a TE1 finish if the cards fall right. If that’s the case, why pay a premium on LaPorta when you can find the same player later in drafts?

Overall, fading LaPorta has nothing to do with his talent and everything to do with his cost. He is priced at his ceiling, and there are options later in drafts that give you equal production for a better price.

De’Von Achane, RB Miami Dolphins - NFFC ADP: 20.43 Overall, RB8

Achane flashed major potential last year. He averaged an absurd 7.8 yards per carry as a rookie. With impressive speed in the open field, Achane is a threat to score any time he touches the ball.

De'Von Achane is too fast, a long TD to double the #Dolphins lead🔥#NFL | #NYGvsMIApic.twitter.com/vu6Y3h9Jqc

— BetUS Pro Football (@BetUSProFB) October 8, 2023

Talent is not an issue. Among running backs with 90+ carries in 2023, Achane finished:

• First in Elusive Rating per Pro Football Focus (PFF)
• First in Breakway Run Rate % per PFF
• Second in RYOE (Rush Yards Over Expected) per Next Gen Stats

While these metrics are fantastic, his role in the offense is up for debate. Miami restructured Raheem Mostert’s contract this offseason to keep him with the team through 2025. Mostert is coming off a career year in 2023 where he scored an absurd 21 total touchdowns en route to an RB2 finish in half-PPR formats. The Dolphins also drafted Tennessee running back Jaylen Wright in the fourth round (No. 120 overall) of the 2024 NFL Draft. This move, coupled with the re-signing of Mostert, indicates the Dolphins are not yet ready to hand the reins to Achane entirely.

There are also durability concerns surrounding the second year back. Standing at 5-foot-9 and 188 lbs, Achane is undersized for the position. He suffered shoulder and knee injuries that forced him to miss six games as a rookie. We shouldn’t hold one season’s worth of injuries against a player, but it is noteworthy, given the concerns about Achane’s size and ability to withstand the rigors of an NFL season.

Achane’s ADP varies quite a bit depending on which platform you’re drafting. His FFPC ADP of 32.26 overall is more palatable than his current NFFC ADP. A third-round pick is a fair price to gamble on Achane’s upside. The problem with his NFFC ADP is that much of his upside is baked into the cost while ignoring the downside. While older, Mostert is still a good player who hasn't seen a heavy workload throughout his career, and we shouldn't view him through the lens of most 32-year-old running backs.

It’s fair to assume Achane is in line for an expanded role in 2024. It just doesn’t seem like becoming the clear RB1 is the plan. Achane has massive upside due to his incredible efficiency, but let someone else take the risk with this second-round price tag.

Zay Flowers, WR Baltimore Ravens - NFFC ADP: 51.74 Overall, WR26

It was a fine rookie season for Flowers as he eclipsed 850 receiving yards and established himself as Baltimore’s clear WR1. However, things may prove more difficult in 2024. Baltimore has stud tight end Mark Andrews returning from injury this year, and that could mean trouble for Flowers. Here are some of Flowers’ splits from last year in games with and without Andrews:

Games with Andrews:

• 4.4 Receptions per game
• 51 Receiving yards per game
• 1 Receiving touchdowns
• 20% TPRR
• 1.63 YPRR
• 21.2% Target Share

Games without Andrews:

• 5.5 Receptions per game
• 58 Receiving yards per game
• 4 Receiving touchdowns
• 23% TPRR
• 1.81 YPRR
• 25.3% Target Share

Flowers clearly benefited with Andrews out of the picture. There are now reports that Isaiah Likely will be featured more in the offense and that he could emerge as the defacto number two receiver. Baltimore also extended former first-round pick Rashod Bateman this offseason. If he stays healthy, he could further siphon targets from Flowers. Put it all together, and Flowers feels like a player to avoid. It took a lot to go right in 2023, and things may not be the same this year. Flowers is a talented player, but this is not the most ideal situation for a Year 2 breakout. There are options with more upside available elsewhere in drafts.

Undervalued Sophomores

Tyjae Spears, RB Tennessee Titans - NFFC ADP: 98.08 Overall, RB31

Spears was snookered behind starting back Derrick Henry for most of his rookie season. Despite that, Spears finished ninth among all running backs in Pro Football Focus’ signature Elusive Rating and 22nd in Breakaway %.

Endzone, meet Tyjae Spears 🤝

First career TD for @tyjae22

📺: Watch #TENvsIND on @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/z011MF4Byc

— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) October 8, 2023

With the Titans allowing Henry to walk in free agency, Spears was poised to take over as the Titans' new RB1. That changed once the team signed former Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard in free agency. Pollard is coming off a down season where he averaged a career-low 4.0 yards per carry and saw many of his advanced metrics decline from his 2022 season. The two backs figure to split touches to start the year.

Spears is younger and appears to be the more explosive back. He also finished higher than Pollard in Elusive Rating, RYOE, and MTF/ATT. If Pollard’s 2023 struggles bleed over to 2024, Tennessee may hand the reins over to Spears completely. Ranked as RotoBaller’s RB31, gamers can expect Spears to improve upon his rookie year numbers, and he makes for a fine addition to any fantasy roster.

Rashee Rice, WR Kansas City Chiefs - NFFC ADP: 68.02 Overall, WR34

Rice’s place on this list is tentative, pending any possible suspension. As of now, he has yet to be disciplined by the league following his arrest back in April. His trial is reportedly set to begin in December, and it’s looking increasingly likely the league won’t take action until 2025. If that’s the case, then Rice is arguably the biggest value currently available in drafts.

Patrick Mahomes TO RASHEE RICE TOUCHDOWN!!!!!

What an opening drive for the Chiefs 🔥🔥
pic.twitter.com/VVPl04b1CO

— Sideline Daily (@sideline_daily) January 14, 2024

His analytical profile as a rookie was very strong. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Rice checked in with a 28% TPRR (targets per route run) and a 2.62 YPRR (yards per route run). With Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, the Chiefs see two high safety looks at one of the highest rates in the league. It’s unlikely defenses change this approach, and that means Rice’s underneath role isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. He can still be a PPR cheat code.

Bottom line: As long as Rice isn’t suspended and stays on the field, he’s going to be a great value. He's arguably the team’s best receiver and a second-year breakout is likely.

Jaleel McLaughlin, RB Denver Broncos - NFFC ADP: 163.09 Overall, RB52

McLaughlin flashed big-time upside in limited action as a rookie. Pro Football Focus (PFF) graded him as their 16th-highest rusher, and he also finished seventh in PFF’s Elusive Rating. Among backs with 65 attempts, McLaughlin finished fifth in Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF/ATT) per Fantasy Points Data Suite. There is a lot to like about the second year back heading into the 2024 season.

The first score of the game is a Jaleel McLaughlin TD! @Speedkills2k_

📺: #WASvsDEN on CBS⁰📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/FhXtx7w3wW pic.twitter.com/rvMH6sk47p

— NFL (@NFL) September 17, 2023

Running backs have always been heavily involved in head coach Sean Payton’s offense. After a disappointing season from Javonte Williams, McLaughlin may command more touches this year. If he can carve out a Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles-type role, he will be a huge asset in PPR leagues. McLaughlin is the exact type of player who can help you win your league if he hits. Draft him and reap the rewards.

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