Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:


Already have an account? Log in here.


Forgot Password


Trevor Bauer Trade - Fantasy Implications from the Deadline Deal

The Cleveland Indians have again made the most significant trade of the MLB deadline. Pending a formal announcement, Cleveland dealt Trevor Bauer to Cincinnati, Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes head to Cleveland, and top-20 prospect Taylor Trammell is headed to San Diego. Also in the deal are prospects Scott Moss, Logan Allen, and Victor Nova who all head to Cleveland. While there is still time for another deal to take the title, as it currently stands, this is the trade that will define the 2019 MLB deadline.

While the trade will have clear implications on the playoff race and future years, fantasy owners are wondering what this deal does for their current rosters. To help owners, each player in the deal is evaluated on their fantasy implications moving forward. With impact in American, National, and mixed league formats, these types of trades have rippled across the fantasy community. In fact, the major pieces in the deal are all set for a dip in fantasy value due to the immediate changes in team and park context.

Read along to see what moves owners need to make, or what players to target due to this deal. Trade deadlines in fantasy might not get the media coverage; they are as key for a pennant race.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season MLB Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our Draft Kit, premium rankings, projections, player outlooks, top prospects, dynasty rankings, 15 in-season lineup tools, and over 200 days of expert DFS research. Sign Up Now!


Stock Up


Franmil Reyes (OF, CLE)

The biggest knock on Reyes to this point in his career has been his glove. Rated as a below-average defender, and lacking the accuracy with the big arm to make up for the lack of range, Reyes is best suited to a designated hitter role. This means that a move to the American League is ideal. Even more, while a torrid defender, this is not a scenario where the team can only play him at DH. Instead, he becomes a player that can start in the field and be replaced by Jordan Luplow or Mike Freeman late in games for defensive purposes. For a team needing a right-handed bat, and with the defenders to cover the loss, Reyes could not have landed in a better spot.

The other bonus for Reyes is the power that he has already shown. In 99 games, Reyes has 27 homers with a .536 SLG. While Petco Park is easier on right-handed power, as opposed to sapping most of the lefty mashers, Reyes is still in for a better hitting environment. To date, Petro is 17th in the league with a .939 home run factor, while Progressive Park, Reyes’s new home, has a 1.13 factor. This means that even with some platoon risk, Reyes is in a better hitter’s park, and should see a boost in his total power numbers. Cleveland is buying a top 5% of the league Hard Hit%, exit velocity, and xSLG, so this could have a more significant impact than the current media narrative suggests.


Logan Allen (SP, CLE)

If there is one thing that Cleveland has excelled at over the past decade, it has been pitcher development. Cory Kluber was one of the first in a line of arms that were added on the cheap and saw their real value far outshine their prospect hype. Add Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, and yes, even Trevor Bauer to that list. Even more, Cleveland has been uniquely capable with pitchers who can flash elite command and pitch-mix but lack the elite velocity to churn a roster. This description fits Allen like a glove.

On Allen, the stock is up due to a direct pathway to playing time. If he can pitch with Cleveland this year, expect him to, but if not, he enters 2020 spring training with a chance to earn a spot in the rotation. While there might have been stability with the Padres and that fleet of young arms, Allen might be lost in the shuffle of Chris Paddack, Adrian Morejon, Cal Quantrill, and the waves of arms down in the lower minors. Without the velocity, Allen is more likely to be a starter in Cleveland, or at least; there is less depth to fight for playing time. Expect the current development path to keep up, and with Cleveland, if there is more to unlock, owners can trust this front office.


Victor Nova (SS, CLE)

Nova is the wildcard in this deal, as he is only 19 at the time of the agreement. Playing in his second professional season with the Padres Arizona Summer League squad, Nova does not appear on any prospect lists or reports at the time of the deal. Without much public information, Nova is a lottery ticket with as much upside as Cleveland can squeeze out. This year has seen Nova make marked improvements at the plate, with a .330/.421/.451 slash after a .197/.370/.291 line last year. No power with only one homer so far, Nova has stolen seven bags in nine total tries this year.

While there is little known about Nova, if there is a team that can develop young infielders, it is Cleveland. Along with the command-centric pitching approach, infielders with athleticism and a hit tool fit well into the Cleveland machine. Even more, with the team expected to lose Francisco Lindor in a few years, there is a stop to play on this infield. In San Diego, there was no chance to break in, or at the very least, playing time in five years is a plus for Nova in this move. For dynasty league owners, Nova will be a cheap add with some upside, and worth the dart if owners can wait for four or five years for any return.


Stock Down


Trevor Bauer (SP, CIN)

Before diving into the park factors, team context, and all the data stuff about this move, with Bauer, owners need to start off the field. Highly rated out of UCLA, and selected third overall by Arizona, the only thing that held Bauer back was the team’s willingness to let Bauer “Bauer.” Yes, “Bauer,” as a verb.

Bauer needs to control his off the field routine, and his throwing sessions, and all the rest. This is not some insider news, but fairly public from Cleveland. This means offseason work at Driveline, the pregame ritual, and all the rest. While Cincinnati wants Bauer and is willing to work with him, the Cleveland situation was unique. The team has learned how to handle outbursts, as evidenced by the reaction from the team and manager to the latest incident. This means that any move should raise red flags, and owners will have to see if the manager and pitching coaches let Bauer “Bauer.”

On the field, owners should also have concerns about Bauer moving forward. The main issue for Bauer this year has been the long ball, as he has allowed 22 bombs in 156 innings. Opposing hitters are also hitting the ball a mile-per-hour harder, and have added four points to the launch angle. When Great American has a 1.125 home run factor, compared to Progressive’s 1.13, the park will not help Bauer. Add in that Bauer will have to face better teams in the National League as opposed to the American League Central, there is only a risk the power numbers continue to rise. Still a top fantasy arm, Bauer will never be the ace that many expected entering this year.


Taylor Trammell (OF, SD)

The most significant prospect piece in this deal, Trammell has a bit of a mixed reputation in fantasy baseball. While a definite asset, concerns about the hit tool and personality have caused his fantasy profile to slip a bit. The good news for Trammell owners is that there is no longer a block in center field with Nick Senzel to hold him back, but Manuel Margot has been playing much better this year. With Reyes also leaving, there is a spot open in this outfield so Trammell could break camp with the team next year. San Diego also does not care about service time, as they have been willing to play their rookies a ton this year. This means he could be up quicker than he would have been with the Reds and that only helps with development.

The reason that the stock is down overall is the park fit with his power. Right now, scouts grade his future power tool at a 50, which is average for the league. While there are concerns he even gets to that, the power was already going to be secondary in the profile. Add in Petco Park, with the lefty swing of Trammell, and there is little to no boost in that power base. Also, when he is only hitting .236 in his first year at Double-A, this move seems to be an overpay for a player slipping in the rankings. Owners should sell while there is still some hype to deal. Trammell was already a falling prospect and is now entering a tougher environment.


Yasiel Puig (OF, CLE)

While news of a looming suspension might limit what Puig can do in the short term, or the rest of the year, owners should expect much of the same offensive value when he is allowed to play. The downside comes from the fact that Great American is a better hitters park when compared to Progressive. Currently, Progressive is the 19th ranked park for run factor with 0.978, and Great American is 10th at 1.076. This means that Puig might lose some of the park boost, but is still a solid hitter nonetheless.

To date, Puig has put together a disappointing campaign. While he is slashing .255/.302/.475, these numbers are all down from career norms, and last year more specifically. The good news is that he has 22 homers so far, after only hitting 23 all of last year. The difference for Puig has been hitting at the heart of the team. As opposed to this time in Los Angeles, when he was a supporting piece. Entering a roster with Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Reyes, and Carlos Santana, Puig is back to a supporting role. This move will not kill his value but hurts what has been a stable, but steady campaign for the Cuban slugger. Puig might be a better player when he is carrying the team, and might ironically lose some value when he is part of a machine. Still a player to own the rest of the way, this move does not seem to help his fantasy value for 2019.


Scott Moss (SP, CLE)

Added to the move as a part of the roster crunch, Moss will be Rule-5 eligible this winter, meaning that Cleveland will need to add him to the 40-man roster. Still some ways from the Bigs, Moss has the approach to factor in the bullpen sooner than later. A lefty with middling velocity, Moss has three pitches he can throw for strikes. The fastball is the most significant tool, with the velocity rising from 88 at the time of the draft, to 92-93 entering this year. With the added speed, Moss moves from a bullpen arm to a starting option in this system, but still lacks the ceiling to project in the rotation.

The slider and changeup are critical for the overall profile, as both pitches currently sit at a 50 grade. Without the off-speed support, the fastball alone is not enough for Moss to handle the Majors. The good news is that he has 123 Ks in 102 innings this year, so the stuff is beginning to translate. While the WHIP was up to 1.38 from 1.33 last year, the overall approach is still proving useful. A reliever in the long term, the stock is down since Cleveland loves these types of arms in their bullpen. If he starts, an SP5 model, but in the bullpen, could be an elite arm. It all depends on the secondary stuff.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis

More Recent Articles


Bases Loaded Podcast: Early Round Values

Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) is joined by Jorge Montanez (@Roto_Nino) and Zach Braff (@BraffZ) and they discuss early round values. They go through and highlight a few players that are going inside the top 150 in ADP that offer a great chance to return profit. Subscribe to the Bases Loaded podcast, part of RotoBaller Radio's Podcast... Read More

Second Year Pitcher Preview: Fantasy Baseball 2020 ADP Analysis

Host Anthony Aniano of RotoBaller Radio discuss the 2020 fantasy baseball season and keeps you updated with all the latest news and analysis Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 AM ET, every weekday afternoon from 1-2 PM ET, Saturday nights from 9-11 PM ET... Read More

Relief Pitchers to Target for Holds

Hold on... there are fantasy leagues that reward middle relievers, not just starters and closers? Yes, there are, and leagues that reward holds are one of the fastest-growing segments of fantasy baseball as real baseball continues to diminish the role of the starter in favor of building deep bullpens with multiple relievers that throw 95+... Read More

2020 Second Base Rankings - H2H Points Leagues

Points leagues may seem like a slight variation from traditional 5x5 category scoring leagues but you must approach draft day with a different strategy if you wish to truly compete. Rankings themselves are a different beast altogether, as category specialists like Mallex Smith and Dee Gordon (stolen bases), Kyle Schwarber and Franmil Reyes (home runs),... Read More

ADP Showdown – Matt Olson vs Paul Goldschmidt

Pitchers and catchers have officially reported and position player workouts are getting underway, which means baseball season is officially upon us! Maybe you haven’t started prepping for your drafts, but fortunately for you, there have already been plenty of drafts, which means that fantasy players out there have already started dealing with tough draft position... Read More

2020 Second Base Rankings - Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues

As the season draws near, we realize more and more that it's draft season. There is a large portion of fantasy baseball busy with mock drafts, rankings, sleepers, and more mock drafts. The Dynasty community, on the other hand, is looking to continue their dominance, rebuild, or in a worst-case scenario, stick their hands up... Read More

Six Undervalued Draft Targets for Mixed Leagues

Heading into 2020, there are a number of players who had poor 2019 campaigns that should bounce back strong. Some of these players are presently undervalued by fantasy owners for one reason or another. In this article, I'll identify a few such players who should outperform their current ADP in 2020. While each of these... Read More

Josh Hayes' 2020 Best Ball Draft Targets (Premium Content)

All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. The fantasy baseball season is here! For those fantasy players looking to get an edge on their 2020 leagues, Best Ball formats are a great way to get a head start on the players that look to be ADP risers this season. One key... Read More

Josh Hayes' 2020 Best Ball Draft Avoids (Premium Content)

All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. The fantasy baseball season is here! For those fantasy players looking to get an edge on their 2020 leagues, Best Ball formats are a great way to get a head start on the players that look to be ADP risers this season. An underrated... Read More

Nine AL Rookies Ready to Leap Into Starting Lineups

Every year, there are those rookies who we expect to make a splash right away. Think Kris Bryant, Ronald Acuna, Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge--those guys. Once we make it through all the service time manipulation shenanigans, there are always youngsters ready to snatch roster spots immediately, and 2020 is no exception. Below are nine of... Read More

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Spin Rate

Spin rate has become one of the most recognizable Statcast metrics, with supporters of a given pitcher highlighting his spin rates to make their case. Unfortunately, the baseball world has done a lousy job conveying what spin rate really means. The result has been a ton of owners who know that spin rate exists, but... Read More

2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Khris Davis

The Oakland Athletics finished 2019 with a record of 97-65, which was good for a second-place finish in the AL West and a second-consecutive wildcard birth. They did this despite a statistically down season from their superstar, Khris Davis. Davis struggled mightily in 2019 by slashing .220/.293/.387 with 23 HR, 73 RBI, 61 R, and... Read More

ADP Cost Analysis: Trey Mancini vs. Christian Walker

One of the most important skills in a fantasy draft is the ability to identify a player with similar value at a lower ADP. When you're able to find similar production at a lower cost, this allows you to use an earlier pick to fill out other areas of your roster, resulting in a stronger... Read More

MLB Closers and Saves: Fantasy Baseball Depth Charts

Saves are an important component for many fantasy baseball leagues. Closers are one of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball, and one of the highest turnover positions in MLB. Each year, closers drop like flies and many MLB teams make in-season changes due to injuries or poor performance. Stay on top of all closer depth... Read More

2020 Fantasy Baseball Staff Rankings

Below you will find RotoBaller's 2020 fantasy baseball rankings, tiers and auction dollar values for the 2020 MLB season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Mixed, Head-to-Head, Points, AL/NL Only, Two-Catcher Top 2020 prospects, Dynasty leagues, Keeper values Export the rankings easily... Read More

More Recent Articles


Biggest ADP Surprises: Early Fantasy Football Mock Draft

RotoBaller fantasy football analysts Pierre Camus and Chris Mangano review the draft board from RotoBaller's 2020 Way Too Early Mock fantasy football draft. They look at early ADP, reaches, values, and surprises throughout the first 10 rounds. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us... Read More

XFL Week 2 - Quarterback Risers and Fallers

We previously looked at target and opportunity risers and fallers, based on the first two weeks of XFL data. Now, it's time to evaluate the quarterbacks, for better or worse. There are few known commodities, even among seasoned NFL fans, at the quarterback position in this league. Relative unknowns like Phillip Walker and Jordan Ta'amu... Read More

XFL Week 2 - Opportunity Risers and Fallers

We previously looked at target risers and fallers based on the first two weeks of XFL data. The XFL has made it past Week 2 and now we have eight games of data to analyze. No small feat, as nobody knew where this league was going just a few weeks ago. But here we are,... Read More

XFL Week 2 - Target Risers and Fallers

The XFL has made it past Week 2 and now we have eight games of data to analyze. No small feat, as nobody knew where this league was going just a few weeks ago. But here we are, just mere days from Week 3 matchups! With two dates already in the rearview mirror and plenty... Read More

NFL Draft Combine Preview: Quarterbacks

With the Super Bowl now behind us, it is officially NFL Draft season! It's time to speculate on draft picks for teams, who should land where, and which players should be valued over others. This also marks the unofficial start to the 2020 fantasy football season. Getting in the early preparation can give owners a... Read More

RB Opportunity Share and Impact (AFC South & West): 2019 Review

We roll on with coverage of each of the eight NFL divisions, discussing the teams that are part of them and the running backs that were part of those teams in 2019. To present those teams and players I use a set of easy-to-read charts: treemaps. The graphics will hold all of the players of... Read More

Dynasty Price Check - Anthony Miller

Many of you have already begun planning and building your 2020 rosters. This includes best-ball owners who have assembled teams in that popular format. A number of owners in redraft leagues are inspecting the early rankings, while those of you who are involved in dynasty leagues have continued your process of relentless roster evaluation. As the... Read More

Is Lamar Jackson Worth a First Round Pick?

RotoBaller fantasy football analysts Pierre Camus and Chris Mangano discuss the idea of taking Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson in the first round of 2020 fantasy football redraft leagues. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure... Read More

Why Lamar Jackson Should Be a First-Round Pick in 2020

Sometimes I like to make noise and some headlines if I can. That is why I host shows six days a week on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio representing RotoBaller. If I can get people buzzing about a topic, calling in or responding on social media with passion and vigor, I am having fun. But whenever I... Read More

Dynasty Price Check - Darren Waller

Many of you have already launched into the planning process for your 2020 rosters. This includes best-ball owners who have embraced the opportunity to draft in that popular format. A number of owners in redraft leagues are also monitoring the early rankings, while those of you who are involved in dynasty leagues have continued a pace of... Read More

Biggest Breakouts of 2019: Tight End

There were a lot of fantasy football busts at the tight end position in 2019, but there were also a lot of breakout stars. The 2018 season saw Philadelphia’s Zach Ertz break the NFL record for most receptions in a season by a tight end, while San Francisco’s George Kittle broke the record for most... Read More

Dynasty Price Check - Courtland Sutton

With the conclusion of Super Bowl LIV, football season is over for many people. But for anyone that plays in a dynasty fantasy football league, the season is never over. For the fantasy addicts out there, now is the time to start preparing. In today's column, we will take a look at wide receiver Courtland... Read More