RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel on Wednesday, April 6th, 2022 at 7:30 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/6/22
We have a five-game slate tonight. We have games starting at staggered times between 7:30 pm Eastern and 10:00 pm Eastern. Be aware of when the games start for your stacks, one-offs, and goalie. The best thing you can do is check 20-30 minutes before the puck drops for each game to ensure everyone in your lineup is playing! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy - DK $7.6K|| FD $8.4K
Opponent - Washington Capitals
Andrei Vasilevskiy is a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel, so I would recommend him for cash games on DraftKings and GPPs for FanDuel. Tampa Bay are -140 favorites and Washington is implied in the two-goal range. Vasilevskiy, Robin Lehner, and Jacob Markstrom are more or less the same to me on this slate as they are all favorites and expected to allow around two goals. Markstrom has a .924 SV%, Lehner a .909 SV%, and Vasilevskiy a .917 SV%. On DraftKings, Vasilevskiy is the least expensive of those three so he is the pick. On FanDuel, Hellebuyck against Detroit and priced at $7.3K is the best play (why is he priced so cheaply on FanDuel??).
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Hellebuyck (DK $8.0K || FD $7.3K - Better FD play), Husso (DK $7.9K || FD $8.3K), Markstrom (DK $7.8K || FD $8.2K), Lehner (DK $7.7K || FD $7.9K), Demko (DK $7.4K || FD $7.6K - GPP), Gibson (DK $7.3K || FD $7.2K - GPP)
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall into both camps.
Steven Stamkos - DK $7.2K || FD $8.6K (Winger only on FanDuel)
Opponent - Washington Capitals
Steven Stamkos is my top spend-up option at Center because of his floor. On the season, he has 78 points (32 goals, 46 assists) in 68 games played. He has 11 points scored in his last seven games, so he is playing well right now. He averages 2.91 shots on goal per game, you will find some centers with more shots on goal per game, but he is one of the centers most likely to score a point on this slate. Tampa Bay is expected to score around three goals on the slate, and Stamkos being on the top line and top power-play is should be in on the scoring action.
Mark Scheifele- DK $6.2K || FD $7.8K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
Mark Scheifele has 65 points (26 goals, 39 assists) in 64 games played and averages 2.36 shots on goal per game. Being a point-per-game player, in a game in which Winnipeg should score four or more goals facing Detroit on their second of a back-to-back is a good floor here. He does not shoot on goal as much as some, but he has a great chance of scoring a point tonight.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Miller (DK $7.2K || FD $8.3K Wing on FanDuel), Point(DK $6.7K || FD $8.1K), Dubois (DK $5.8K || FD $6.0K), Pettersson (DK $5.1K - Winger on DK|| FD $6.1K), Thomas (DK $4.7K || FD $5.4K), Backlund (DK $4.1K || FD $4.7K), Roy (DK $3.3K || FD $4.6K).
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully score.
Kyle Connor - DK $8.4K|| FD $9.2K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
Kyle Connor has 83 points (41 goals, 42 assists) in 68 games played averaging 4.24 shots on goal per game. Detroit is playing the second of a back-to-back and Winnipeg could very well be the highest-scoring team on the slate and Connor leads the team with shots on goal. I am finding some good value at Center, so if you agree with me, then spending up at this spot could make sense as Connor has the upside of scoring the most fantasy points on the slate tonight.
Jonathan Marchessault- DK $6.6K || FD $7.2K
Opponent - Vancouver Canucks
Jonathan Marchessault has 58 points (28 goals, 30 assists) in 65 games played averaging 3.48 shots on goal per game. Vegas is implied for three goals on the slate and Marchessault has the upside to score a point and also hit the five shots on goal bonus on DraftKings.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Kucherov (DK $7.9K || FD $9.1K), Gaudreau (DK $7.4K || FD $9.3K), M.Tkachuk (DK $7.0K || FD $8.0K), Ehlers (DK $6.7K || FD $7.4K), Wheeler (DK $5.7K || FD $7.1K), Toffoli (DK $4.8K || FD $5.9K), Stastny (DK $3.5K || FD $4.6K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Alex Pietrangelo - DK $6.5K || FD $6.8K
Opponent - Vancouver Cancucks
Alex Pietrangelo has 40 points (13 goals, 27 assists) in 69 games played, averaging 2.88 shots on goal per game and 2.09 blocked shots per game. He is a good cash gameplay as he can pick up fantasy points in a variety of ways. He also averages 25 minutes of time on the ice per game as he is on the second power-play unit for Vegas.
Colton Parayko- DK $4.8K || FD $4.8K
Opponent - Seattle Kraken
Colton Parayko is a recommendation due to his price being under $5K on both sites. Parayko has 27 points (6 goals, 21 assists) in 67 games played. He averages 1.78 shots on goal and 2.21 blocked shots per game. On DraftKings, he is a threat to go over the three blocked shots bonus almost every game.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Seider (DK $5.9K || FD $6.2K), Theodore (DK $5.7K || FD $5.6K), Morrissey (DK $5.4K || FD $6.0K), Hanifin (DK $4.4K || FD $5.1K), McNabb (DK $4.2K || FD $4.1K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
I will continue to emphasize this but your strategy for GPPs depends on what kind of contest you are playing in. On a five-game slate, if playing in a large field GPP, you are going to need something special to happen in order to ship it without being duplicated. You might have to stack a team like Vancouver, Detroit, or Seattle
Calgary, Winnipeg, and Saint Louis are implied in the four-goal range. Any lineups that have stacks of the top two lines from these teams and/or the top power-play from these teams will need to get different somewhere else such as getting leverage at goalie, or finding a filler stack nobody is on that hits, and also likely leaving money on the table.
Some other stacks I like:
Calgary 2: Calgary PP should be popular and they are correlated to the first power play. Calgary 2 is priced much better
Vegas PP1: Vancouver has the No. 31 penalty kill (72.8%) on the slate.
Tampa Bay 3: If looking for under 5% filler stacks, this is the one as they have scored 22 goals as a line combination this season. I would only use it in a large field tournament, they are too risky for a single entry tournament with under 1,000 entrants.
If you are looking to get sneaky anywhere stack-wise, find a high-owned goalie and choose the most productive stack against that goalie's opponent for leverage, especially in a large field GPP.
