Thunder Dan's NFL Prop Bets for Saturday, January 21st: Top Player Props Betting Picks

Dan Palyo's top NFL betting picks and best bets for the 2023 Divisional Round. His favorite NFL betting picks for NFL player props bets for the NFL playoffs.

The Divisional round of the NFL playoffs is here! Today, we get both of the top seeds in both conferences in action after having a bye in round one, and we have two games that could be pretty high scoring. I think both favorites win, but we see plenty of offense in these games today. Let's see where we can hit some player props, shall we?

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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite NFL betting picks for the NFL Divisional round games on Saturday, January 21st. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the week as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

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• Tight end (TE) rankings
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Thunder Dan's Best Bets: 2022 NFL Season

• Last Week's Props: 5-8
• Season-to-Date Props: 77-78

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NFL Betting Picks: Player Props for Divisional Round

Jalen Hurts OVER 1.5 passing TDs (+100 BOOST on DK)

This is a no-brainer boost for me on DraftKings. Sometimes they get you to chase suboptimal bets with these boosts but Hurts over 1.5 passing TDs has been one of the most bet props for this weekend according to DK, so the public is all over this bet (don’t jinx it, public).

The Eagles are going to score points today, it’s just a matter of how they do it. If they finish with 3-4 TDs, there’s a larger-than-average chance that Hurts tosses two TD passes.

Jalen Hurts OVER 14.5 yards on LONGEST RUSH (-120 DK)

Hurts had one or more scrambles of 15+ yards in seven games this season. That’s less than half of them, yes, but he ran all over the Giants in their first matchup including a 24-yard burst. The Week 18 game wasn’t a very indicator of his rushing tendencies as he had just come back from injury and really wasn’t trying to get himself hurt on a scramble again. He can run for 15 yards on a designed run or scramble pretty easily.

Travis Etienne Jr. UNDER 16.5 rushing attempts (-115 DK)

ETN has 17 carries or more only ONCE in a game where the Jaguars have lost and I think the miracle run by Jacksonville comes to an end today. If the Jags were to go up early and somehow control this game, then he could get there, but I think the much more likely scenario would be for Jacksonville to be playing from behind and throwing the ball more than they run it.

Jerick McKinnon OVER 34.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)

J-Mac (I just coined that nickname for him, I know - it’s very original) has 35 or more receiving yards now in three of his last five games and caught 6 balls for 56 yards in the Chiefs’ win over the Jags back during the regular season. The Jacksonville run defense is solid, meaning I think we see Mahomes and company putting the ball in the air quite often.

DeVonta Smith OVER 62.5 receiving yards (-125 DK)

Smith has hit the over here on this number in six straight games and was targeted no fewer than 8 times in the final 8 games of the Eagles’ season. He should be very highly involved in the Eagles’ attack today.

Anytime Touchdown Scorers

Jerick McKinnon (-110 DK)

McKinnon has a touchdown (or two) now in six straight games. It’s clear that his role is not going anywhere and he’s going to get some high-value touches in the red zone either on running plays or as a receiver.

Receptions

Christian Kirk over 5.5 (+100)
Richie James Jr. over 4.5 (+105)

The theme today (and this weekend) is going to be slot receivers for teams that will be throwing the ball a lot in pass-heavy game scripts. Kirk and James both hit these numbers in earlier matchups against their opponents, too.

I hope you find my picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!

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