RADIO
Dan's favorite 2024 fantasy football sleepers, draft values and targets that he can't stop drafting. He discusses fantasy players he is all-in on this season.
The preseason is over and now we have about 10 more days to wait for the start of the regular season. The number of fantasy drafts is increasing by the day and the anticipation for the 2024 fantasy football season is reaching a fever pitch.
This article will be another installment of the "My Guys" series here at RotoBaller, in which our analysts all put forth their "ride or die" players for the upcoming season.
These are players I'm building around on a lot of my teams. I believe they'll exceed expectations and provide fantasy managers with league-winning upside. I opted for the quality over quantity approach here so I am going to give you a pretty detailed description of why I like these five players this season.
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Jaylen Waddle, WR - Miami Dolphins
In just about every draft I am trying to get at least one piece of this high-powered Miami offense. Tyreek Hill goes in the early first round and someone usually snags De'Von Achane in the early second round. Both of those guys are electric, for sure, but Waddle is cheaper and I think the best value of the three at his current ADP.
Waddle is being drafted in the late third or even early fourth round in drafts, but why? Waddle missed three games last season but still managed to break 1,000 yards on 72 receptions and score four touchdowns. It was a down year, by his standards, but still a pretty darn good one overall on a per-game basis.
Jaylen Waddle
100+ targets & 1,000+ receiving yards each of his three years in the NFL.
Top 12 fantasy WR both seasons with 16+ appearances.
Averaging 8+ targets per game in his last 10 games played.
Low-end WR1 with elite ceiling.
— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) August 16, 2024
He finished as the WR7 in 2022 with Tyreek Hill on the team, and not much changed in how he was used last year. He even saw an increase in targets per game from 6.9 in 2022 to 7.4 in 2023, but he simply didn't find the end zone as often (eight TDs in 2022 to four in 2023).
This Miami offense is loaded once again this year. The addition of Jonnu Smith at tight end may open things up even more for Waddle or Hill. The offense is still going to be funneled through Miami's top two wideouts and the fact that Mike McDaniel has more weapons at his disposal is only going to help those top two receivers get open more often.
I'm content to let others draft Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel Sr., Brandon Aiyuk, and DK Metcalf ahead of Jaylen Waddle, and I love it when he falls to me in the third round. Waddle makes for a super safe pick that still has a nice ceiling if he reverts to his 2022 form.
David Montgomery, RB - Detroit Lions
Montgomery was a crucial part of several successful teams of mine last season, and I am going right back to the well on him this year.
Why invest a first or second-round pick in Jahmyr Gibbs when you can get Montgomery in the fifth or sixth round and likely somewhere between 75-85% of the production? And what makes us think that anything is going to change with how these backs were used in tandem by Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson last season?
Gibbs is easily the more dynamic runner and receiver - especially in space, but by hammering Montgomery between the tackles 15 times per game, Detroit was able to keep Gibbs healthy for most of the season and into the playoffs.
Monty finished with 13 rushing touchdowns last season and had the fifth-most attempts of any back from inside the 10-yard line. He enjoyed his most efficient season as a runner, averaging 4.6 yards per carry behind an incredibly solid Detroit offensive line.
Lions RB David Montgomery is going to be a BEAST this season 😤
You might be a fantasy football league winner if you leave your draft with him 👀 especially if Jahymr Gibbs is expected to miss extended time‼️
— Last Take™ (@TheRealLastTake) August 13, 2024
His ADP has been slowly creeping up since Gibbs suffered a hamstring injury this preseason. But even if Gibbs is fine for Week One and doesn't miss time, Monty has a clearly defined role on an elite offense and could be ready for another top-ten finish at the position.
He's about as safe of a pick as you make in this range, and he's a key player to target if you go with a ZeroRB build that targets receivers in the early rounds.
Isiah Pacheco, RB - Kansas City Chiefs
If a pattern is developing here, it's that I am trying to grab pieces of the league's elite offenses where I can.
The Chiefs offense this season has the potential to be really good and perhaps better than it was last season when it was their defense that carried them to another Super Bowl win.
Pacheco enjoyed a very productive sophomore season in 2023, piling up 1,179 scrimmage yards in 14 games after contributing 960 scrimmage yards as a rookie.
The Chiefs are indeed a pass-first offense, ranking seventh in the league with a 60.3% passing play rate last season. But they use the passing game to set up a very efficient run game, as Pacheco averaged 4.6 YPC in 2023 on 14.6 carries per game.
Pacheco was also more involved in the passing game last year than in his rookie season, catching 44 balls on 49 targets and nearly doubling his receiving yards total from 130 (2022) to 244 (2023). Still, he finished as the RB14 in PPR scoring, averaging 15.3 fantasy points per game.
If he's going to be the RB1, we are looking for at least 21-22 points per game. How does he get there?
My man Michael Florio is driving the Pacheco bus this preseason and lays out very succinctly all the reasons why he loves No. 10 this year.
I’m sure many wondering why I have Pacheco RB4 so:
- 19 fantasy PPG in games with 60+ % of snaps (would be RB3)
- target rate doubled prev year and only got higher as year went on
- Highest % of teams rush TDs (dominated GL work)
- KC could be leagues best offense
- Thin RB room https://t.co/BnYjtEZfWb— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) August 21, 2024
He mentions that Pacheco led the RB room in rushing TDs and goal-line work, but he handled just 58.3% of the red zone carries for Kansas City - that's a number that he can improve upon this season.
He finished with nine total touchdowns last year, but if see his touches increase around the goal line and get at a full season from him, we are looking at 12-15 touchdowns this season with the Kansas City offense looking like it will be quite prolific again.
His main competition for catches on third down was Jerick McKinnon, who is now a free agent. It's just Clyde Edwards-Helaire and a bunch of unproven youngsters behind him now in the running back room. If Pacheco becomes a true every-down back and pushes 20 touches per game this season, he could run for 1,500 yards and catch 60+ passes.
Maybe it's a stretch, but 1,500 yards rushing, 15 touchdowns, and 60 receptions for 400 yards gets us up over 20 points per game.
Pacheco has proven himself to be a hard-nosed runner between the tackles and versatile enough to be a major weapon out of the backfield. He has Reid and Mahomes trust - he just needs to stay healthy for a full season.
It's been a while since Andy Reid has had a bell cow running back but look no further than 2013 Jamaal Charles (1,980 scrimmage yards, 19 TD) or 2017 Kareem Hunt (1,782 scrimmage yards, 11 TD) to see what type of production Pacheco could approach in a full season in this offense.
Terry McLaurin, WR - Washington Commanders
Do I think the Commanders will be good this season? No, not at all - I have them winning five, maybe six games. But I do think that Terry McLaurin could be in store for the best season of his career with Jayden Daniels at QB and Kliff Kingsbury calling the plays.
McLaurin enters his sixth season in the NFL with four straight 1000-yard seasons, however, the Ohio State product has never caught more than 87 passes in a season. He's had to deal with some pretty terrible quarterback play for most of his career and while he's been targeted an average of 121 times per season, many of those targets were simply not catchable balls.
Now, is Daniels a major upgrade over McLaurin's former QBs? I don't think he even has to be all that much better for McLaurin to go off.
Daniels has an elite ability to scramble and extend plays - something that is going to create more opportunities for McLaurin to improvise and get open. Daniels's accuracy has looked good in preseason, but we also have to consider that his OC, Kingsbury, is going to do everything he can to scheme him a lot of safe throws as well.
Here's every Terry McLaurin preseason route in the new Kliff Kingsbury offense:
McLaurin's career average route depth (the distance from the line of scrimmage at which the initial cut in his route comes) is 9.4 yards. This preseason, it's 6.2 yards. https://t.co/Gqq8evav7c pic.twitter.com/FwlTO5cmiF
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 20, 2024
You want your rookie quarterback making simple reads and having fewer choices - you don't ask them to break down defenses pre-snap or make a lot of audibles. Look for McLaurin to get peppered with targets on shorter routes this season, which in PPR formats could be a huge increase in production if he pushes up toward 100 catches.
Let's face it - rookie quarterbacks tend to hone in on their top receiver more often than veterans, and frankly - who else does Daniels have to look for in this wide receiver room? Right now, Olamide Zaccheaus or Luke McCaffrey is the projected WR2. Jahan Dotson was traded to the Eagles, but Dyami Brown failed to separate himself from the rest of the group.
It might not be pretty, but garbage time stats count the same as any others. I expect Washington to trail in a lot of games this season and for Daniels and McLaurin to post really big fantasy numbers trying to play catch-up.
Pat Freiermuth, TE - Pittsburgh Steelers
We've covered some receivers and running backs, so how about a tight end to finish things off? Yes, I am a Pittsburgh Steeler fan, but I promise this is an objective take and not some Yinzer wishful thinking.
The big man affectionately known as"Muth" had seven touchdowns as a rookie, catching passes from Big Ben in his final season as the Steelers QB. He followed that up with his best overall campaign in 2022 when he caught 63 balls for 732 yards, averaging 11.6 yards per reception and 6.1 targets per game.
Pat Freiermuth
We saw flashes from the Muth in ‘22 with 5 games of 75+ yards + a TE7 finish
His new OC Arthur Smith targeted TEs at the highest rate last season.
- Massive QB upgrade in Russ
- #2 target in offense
- Played hurt last year https://t.co/gPIibc16tJ— Chris O'Brien (@17gamepace) August 22, 2024
Last year was rough as Freiermuth missed four games due to injury and suffered through some terrible QB play from Trubisky and Pickett. Mason Rudolph was a mild upgrade for the final few games and fed Freiermuth eight targets in their first-round playoff loss to Buffalo as he finished with five catches for 76 yards - his second-best performance of the season.
So whether it's Russell Wilson or Justin Fields who ends up under center this season, both guys represent an upgrade for the Pittsburgh pass catchers over Kenny Pickett. More importantly, new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith targeted his tight ends a ton last year as Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith combined for 103 catches on 160 targets.
With the Steelers lacking a dynamic WR2 this year, we could see 'Muth as the second target after George Pickens in this offense. And for those who are worried about Darnell Washington eating into Freiermuth's snap share, I wouldn't read too much into the preseason results or the Pitts-Smith situation from last season.
Freiermuth is finally fully healthy and has the athleticism to win routes against linebackers and slot corners. The Steelers need his production, and his coach likes to scheme his position of the ball.
He's being taken in the 10th round or later, so if you decide to skip drafting one of the top 4-5 tight ends early, Freiermuth makes for a safe value pick later on in drafts.
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