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If you like sports betting, then you've come to the right place! Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything!
This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Saturday, August 27th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
Yu Darvish o5.5K vs. KC (-165 DK)
Sonny Gray o5.5K vs. SFG (+120 DK)
Jordan Montgomery o4.5K vs. STL (-155 DK)
Dustin May o6.5 vs. MIA (+115 DK)
Drew Smyly o5.5 vs. MIL (-135 DK)
Jeffrey Springs o4.5k vs. BOS (-165)
Alek Manoah o6.5k vs. LAA (-105 DK)
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MLB Betting Picks: Hitter Props
Bryce Harper o1.5 TB (-120 FD)
Harper was 1-4 in his return last night and gets another solid match-up here against Beede and the Pirates pen.
Randy Arozarena o1.5 TB (+110)
Aroz has been scorching at the plate and Rich Hill is way past his prime. I like Tampa bats today.
Ha-Seong Kim o1.5 TB (+105)
Kim was impressive last night with a HR and 5 RBI from the leadoff spot. If he leads off against another lefty today, he should get another 5-6 at-bats and I like the way he's seeing the ball right now
MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
TBR ML (-125 DK)
I like Jeffrey Springs a lot more than Rich Hill and I was on Tampa last night before their bullpen blew it (and Boston's then almost blew their lead, too). The Red Sox are in shambles, I like the way Tampa is playing right now.
ARI ML (-110 DK)
The White Sox can not get out of their own way, and Arizona has the pitching advantage here again as their ace Merrill Kelly takes the hill against the recently recalled Davis Martin for Chicago.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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