The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 22

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

The end of a long and arduous season is in sight. In head-to-head leagues, the playoffs are looming and in roto leagues, there are only a few weeks left. It's coming down to crunch time with difficult decisions needed for those of you chasing a championship. While you might still be able to find someone on waivers who can help you, it's important not to drop someone who could do your team better than his replacement.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone for a random player who is on the only hot streak he'll ever have in his career. We have more than enough of a sample size on most players to base our decisions on this year so should be looking at the bigger picture as much as possible. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) are reflective of when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing

Adolis Garcia - OF, Texas Rangers - 78% rostered

Garcia was a massive pickup for many fantasy teams this year after going almost completely undrafted in the preseason. He had flashed his power/speed combo in the minor leagues with 69 homers and 39 steals in 368 games across Double-A and Triple-A with a .266/.308/.499 line. Although they're solid numbers, no one could expect him to do what he did after a mid-April call-up. By the end of May, Garcia had a .286/.323/.589 line with 16 homers, 27 runs, 41 RBI and six steals in just 45 games. Things have gone downhill since. While Garcia had an ok June, hitting .242/.284/.432 with four homers and a steal, it's been a struggle from July onwards.

Since July 1, Garcia is hitting .210/.264/.407 with seven homers, 19 runs, 16 RBI and one stolen base in 42 games. The power is still showing itself, but the Rangers offense has been collectively bad (68 wRC+ since July 1 is the worst in MLB) so the runs and RBI haven't been there despite Garcia exclusively hitting third in the lineup. He has hit four homers in August but they've come with a .203/.253/.432 line, 10 runs and eight RBI. That's despite going 7-for-24 this week with four extra-base hits. After a hot start, he's become a Eugenio Suarez type hitter but on a worse team. He might have another hot streak or two in him this year, but good luck trying to work out when they'll be.

Verdict - If you need homers to catch up in your leagues, Garcia can be kept but he'll likely be a drain on batting average and won't help with many runs or RBI the rest of the way. If you need help elsewhere in other categories, Garcia can be expendable in fantasy in all but the deepest leagues. 

Carlos Santana - 1B, Kansas City Royals - 56% rostered

Santana is doing his best to recreate the only other season he played outside of Cleveland. And that's not a good thing. In 2018, when with the Phillies, Santana hit .229/.352/.414 with 24 homers (161 games). This year, Santana is hitting .222/.332/.368 with 17 homers (122 games). Despite his 13.8% BB% being the lowest since 2017 and down on his career 15.4% BB%, it's still in the 94th percentile and makes Santana a better option in leagues counting walks/OBP than in standard. But like Garcia on the Rangers, he's also harmed by being on such a weak offense. The Royals' 87 wRC+ this year is 26th in MLB and since July 1, they have a collective 84 wRC+ which is 29th.

That explains why despite hitting no lower than fourth in the lineup all year, Santana has just 58 runs and 58 RBI. He's ranks 14th among all first basemen in runs scored, 18th in RBI and tied-17th in home runs. That's enough to make him rosterable as a corner infielder in 12+ team leagues but he carries little to no upside. His numbers have been getting worse month-to-month since May and at age 35, it's fair to believe they won't get better than they are now.

Verdict - Given how his season has declined month on month, Santana isn't really a viable option in shallower standard leagues. His elite walk rate holds value in those league types which count OBP and walks but outside of those, he's only rosterable in the deepest standard leagues.

Hold For Now

Trent Grisham (85% rostered), Tommy Pham (75% rostered) & Wil Myers (71% rostered) - San Diego Padres

We're doing this section a little differently as there's been an interesting development in San Diego and one that has repercussions across their outfield. When the Padres acquired Adam Frazier, I mentioned on here that it could lead to less playing time for Myers and Eric Hosmer. The expectation was that Frazier would cover left field sometimes as well as playing second base which would see Jake Cronenworth play first base on occasion.

Since then, things changed with Fernando Tatis Jr. reinjuring his shoulder. During Tatis Jr.'s rehab, news emerged that the Padres were looking to use him in the outfield upon his return to try and protect his shoulder during the remainder of this season. They've been true to their word.

Tatis Jr. returned to the lineup last Sunday and played right field, something he repeated throughout this week (with one start in center field). Obviously, with Tatis Jr. occupying an outfield spot, that leaves one of Grisham, Pham and Myers out of the lineup. If we compare all three outfielder numbers so far, we'll see how similar they have performed with no one truly standing out above the others.

The early signs are that it'll be "platoonesque." The first four games came against starters who are right-handed pitchers (RHP) and saw Pham and Myers both sit twice (both of whom are right-handed hitters). Then on Friday, the opposing starter was a LHP and it was Grisham (left-handed hitter) who sat, which saw Tatis Jr. play center field in his stead.

Saturday was again against a RHP and saw Pham sit for the third time this week. The Pham and Myers starts have alternated so with the Padres due to face Kyle Gibson today, if that pattern continues then we will see Myers sit tonight with Pham in the starting lineup. For now, it looks like Grisham sits against LHP and Pham and Myers will alternate starts against RHP.

Without trying to overcomplicate an already complicated situation, Pham and Myers have similar numbers against LHP and RHP while Grisham actually has reverse splits this year with better numbers against LHP (137 wRC+ versus LHP and 110 wRC+ versus RHP). So if the Padres are going with this platoon while alternating Pham and Myers against RHP, it actually isn't the best plan. Given it's only been a few games and how much the Padres use analytics, I'm not sure they will continue to just platoon the trio this way.

Ordinarily, I like seeing how things pan out over a two or three week period but with just six weeks left of the regular season, some fantasy managers don't have that luxury. The early signs are that Pham and Myers will suffer the most with a loss of playing time so Grisham I would look to keep rostered regardless.

If you're rostering Pham or Myers, I'd monitor the Padres lineups very closely in the coming days and if they are indeed alternating starts against RHP, we're looking at both of them losing around a third of their playing time. If that does materialize, in weekly lineup leagues you can make a strong case that both are droppable. That's a lot of 'ifs' but the impact on fantasy teams is significant so cannot be ignored.

Given the power/speed combo they both possess and (although the Padres haven't quite reached the heights many expected) the supporting cast around them, I'd still look to hold on to them in daily lineup leagues. Especially if you have the roster flexibility and space to sit them three times a week without leaving an empty roster spot when they do sit. Ideally, it's something we can just monitor throughout next week and then pull the trigger on any move when we have more clarity.

On the Hot Seat

John Means - SP, Baltimore Orioles - 83% rostered

It's been an up-and-down season for Means. On May 5, he threw a no-hitter against the Mariners and then followed it up with six shutout innings against the Mets. That left his ERA at 1.21 from eight starts (52.0 IP) with 53 strikeouts and a 4-0 record. Things then took a bit of a downturn with a 5.21 ERA from his next four starts before Means hit the IL with a shoulder strain on June 6.

Following a lengthy layoff, Means returned to the Orioles on July 20. He struggled in his first two starts back allowing nine earned runs in 11.2 IP with just four strikeouts. He looked to be on track again with back-to-back starts allowing just one earned run (totaling 11 innings) but his last two starts have seen him allow ten earned runs in just 8.1 IP leaving fantasy managers wondering if he's worth keeping on their rosters.

His season-long numbers suggest you should. A 3.44 ERA and 1.01 WHIP from 102.0 IP (18 starts) with a 5-5 record are all very good. His 4.2% BB% is in the 97th percentile among qualified pitchers and he limits hard contact, as evidenced by being in the 87th percentile of average exit velocity. But there isn't much more to get excited about.

Means underlying numbers suggest his recent regression was inevitable. He's currently got a 4.07 xERA, 4.38 xFIP and 4.08 SIERA so an ERA nearer 4.00 seems more likely which means further regression. If we look at his expected numbers, they paint the picture of a middling starter also.

Among all pitchers with at least 100.0 IP this year Means is tied-11th in WHIP, in no small part due to that excellent BB%. But among those 89 pitchers with 100 innings this year, he ranks tied-83rd in HR/9 (1.94). To give you an idea of where that leaves him, he's tied with Andrew Heaney. Given that the Orioles have 41 games left and 21 of them are against AL East rivals, all of whom rank in the top-10 for home runs this year, his finish to the season doesn't look like it'll be as pretty as the start of his season.

The lack of strikeouts hurts Means' value a little bit, but he does make up for it with that WHIP. He's still certainly rosterable in all leagues although he isn't an automatic start, especially in shallower leagues. He's due to start against the Braves today which will be an interesting challenge against an offense that has been slightly better than league average so far this year. It should go some ways to showing where Means is at right now. A bad outing followed by another (due to start against the Rays next week) could bring into question whether Means should even be rostered in shallower leagues.

The Reddit Requests

Here are some names from the readers following last weekend's post on Reddit. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature.

Shane Bieber - SP, Cleveland Indians - 95% rostered

Last week, I covered Jacob deGrom and said how it's fine to drop him if you really need the roster space. And the same applies to Bieber. The third pitcher taken in most drafts managed 90.2 IP with 130 strikeouts and a 3.28 ERA before a shoulder injury (sub scapularis strain) sent him to the IL in June. We had some news earlier this week with Bieber throwing a bullpen session and announcing he hopes to return this season. That's normally more ominous than you'd think.

Given that Cleveland has nothing to play for, they won't risk his return unless he's 100% healthy and considering Bieber will need some more bullpen work, then a rehab assignment, it's unlikely he'll feature for more than two weeks. That's the best-case scenario. I'm not holding on to much hope that Bieber does return this year but even if he does, 10-12 innings are probably the most you can reasonably expect. If you have room on your IL, just leave him there and forget about it. But if you don't have that luxury and need the roster spot for someone who will be able to provide some needed help, it's fine to drop him.

Trey Mancini - 1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles - 81% rostered

After missing the 2020 season following a cancer diagnosis, Mancini's comeback this year has been arguably baseball's best story this year. He's hitting .256/.320/.456 with 20 homers, 60 runs and 62 RBI in 116 games this year but is struggling in August. He's hitting just .206/.231/.317 this month with a solitary homer but that's been indicative of the Orioles in August, whose 88 wRC+ is 23rd in MLB. Given his health issues and missing the 2020 season, you may be forgiven for thinking Mancini has simply run out of steam but that may not be the case.

After a poor June in which he hit .208/.286/.327 with three homers, Mancini bounced back in July and hit .299/.344/.575 with five homers. What is noticeable is despite Mancini having a considerably better July than June, he only had eight RBI in July compared to 10 in June. That's been due to the Orioles' offense getting worse as the season progresses which will obviously harm Mancini's ability to score and drive in runs. He's gone 6-for-19 this week but has just one RBI to show for it and I don't think the Orioles' offense will offer much fantasy help for Mancini the rest of this year. That being said, Mancini is still a viable option in fantasy in all but shallow leagues.

Carlos Carrasco - SP/RP, New York Mets - 59% rostered

It's been a bit of a lost season for Carrasco. After starting the season on the IL due to a hamstring strain, he didn't make his season debut until July 30. In his five starts so far, Carrasco has a worrying 8.82 ERA and is winless through 16.1 IP. Things started well enough with his first two starts totaling 8.1 IP and allowing three earned runs, but they unraveled since to the tune of 13 earned runs in eight innings. The one thing to remember is we are dealing with a small sample size for Carrasco this year but have a long history to look at and things aren't as bad as they might seem. Despite the elevated ERA, Carrasco's underlying numbers are much better.

He has a 4.67 xERA, 3.88 xFIP and 3.90 SIERA. While nothing special, they're much closer to his career ERA of 3.83 and what you'd expect when rostering him. Given the disparity in his numbers, Carrasco's .367 BABIP might not come as a surprise and the only time he had a similar BABIP over a full season in the last eight years was in 2019. That season, Carrasco had a .354 BABIP and a 5.29 ERA. With his injury-delayed start to the season, I'm not expecting peak Carrasco numbers this year but he's still tallied 18 strikeouts and his ERA should normalize over the final few weeks of the season. He's not a must-start but I'd look to keep him on my roster and start him in the better matchups.

Jorge Soler - OF, Atlanta Braves - 56% rostered

Soler's trade to the Braves raised an eyebrow or two as the move to the NL meant he'd need to play the outfield to be in the lineup. Given he's been a below-average outfielder (to put it kindly), the Braves decided the potential of his bat would outweigh the negative of his glove and considering their offensive struggles at the time, that was justified. Prior to the trade, Soler was hitting .192/.288/.370 with 13 homers, 38 runs and 37 RBI in 94 games. Since joining the Braves, he's hitting .243/.372/.447 with four homers, 11 runs and nine RBI (19 games). Not only has he moved to a better offense (the Braves 107 wRC+ in August ranks tied-11th in MLB while the Royals 79 wRC+ is 26th), but Soler has also found himself hitting second in the lineup in Atlanta.

While his numbers aren't eye-catching, there's no doubting Soler has moved to a better spot and is performing better himself. He's also been very unlucky this year if we look at his expected stats. He's got a .241 xBA (.201 avg), .482 xSLG (.386 SLG) and .357 xwOBA (.303 wOBA). According to Statcast, Soler also has 24.2 expected home runs, seven more than his actual home run total. He ranks top-4 among difference between expected and actual stats so has been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball this year. I'm willing to believe the move to Atlanta will help Soler's luck turn around and it's certainly trended that way so far. I'd be keeping Soler on my rosters and would also look to add him if I need some outfield help right now.

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