Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Bear Down - Players Whose Target Share May Decrease


In order to rack up a lot of receptions and receiving yards, a wide receiver usually needs to get a good number of targets. For example, every 1,000-yard receiver last season had at least 100 targets. The closest anyone outside the 100 club came was Tyler Lockett, who had 965 yards on just 70 targets.

One way to keep up with who'll be targeted is to look at their market share targets, i.e. the percentage of a team's available targets that went to them. More successful players usually see a large share of their team's targets.

But sometimes, players who see a big market share one year end up seeing a reduction the next year. Below are players whose market share in 2018 was at least 15 percent but are likely to see that rate fall off in 2019.

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

 

Golden Tate (WR, NYG)

2018 MS: 27%

Projecting Tate to see a lower percentage of targets in New York is maybe the easiest thing that can be done. In seven games with the Lions, Tate had a market share of at least 22 percent in every game, but that number dropped significantly when he was traded to the Eagles. who didn't have to rely on him as their top target.

Now, he's a Giant, and when you factor in Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley being in the mix, plus the lower volume of targets available with the Eli Manning/Daniel Jones quarterback combination...meh. I don't see Tate seeing near the volume he has in the past, even if he's the team's WR2.

Honestly, the bigger question for me at this point is whether I even want Golden Tate on my fantasy team at all. Let's say his market share is 15 percent this year, which seems like a decent estimate based on what he did in Philadelphia. Last year, the Giants threw the ball 583 times. For simplicity sake, let's just keep them at that number. 15 percent of 583 is 87 targets, which would be the fewest he's had since he was a Seahawk. Based on his career catch rate, that would put him at around 55 catches. So, 55 catches and maybe...650 yards? With an ADP that's in the 11th round in a 12-team league? I mean...maybe, but I'm feeling pretty low on the idea of taking him there.

 

Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE)

2018 MS: 26%

Landry's been a PPR machine for years, but the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. is going to severely eat into what Landry's able to do. The last time Landry didn't lead his team in targets, he was a rookie who had 112 targets to Mike Wallace's 115. Since then, he's basically spent his career as the top guy in underwhelming receiving corps, but that's suddenly changed with Beckham.

The problem for fantasy owners is that Landry's made his mark as a short-yardage, lot-of-catches guy, and with Beckham now in Cleveland, Landry won't see that volume of targets, which means he won't get a bunch of receptions. He'll still get enough to be valuable, but he won't be nearly as valuable as he's been in the past. I don't know if I want to take Landry in the sixth round if we see him only grabbing something like 20 percent of the available targets in Cleveland, because he isn't explosive enough to turn those targets into huge yardage totals.

 

Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI)

2018 MS: 22%

Age and the Cardinals revamping the receiver room have me lower on Larry Fitzgerald than I've ever been on him, even with Arizona's new Air Raid look factored in.

The biggest issue for Fitzgerald is that the Cardinals have so many more viable options all of a sudden. Christian Kirk had the same or higher target share that Fitzgerald had in the last three games Kirk played, and he's set to see an even more expanded role this season. Andy Isabella was drafted, and he fits the new wave of NFL slot receivers really well as undersized but fast. Isabella is a guy who can make plays near the line of scrimmage and do sweep plays as well. Hakeem Butler has some room to grow into, but he projects to be a solid downfield target for Kyler Murray. David Johnson is one of the NFL's best receiving backs as well.

All this suggests to me that Fitzgerald, in what's likely his final NFL season, gets used a lot more sparingly than he did in the past. 2018 was already the season where he had the third-fewest targets of his career, and he didn't play a full 16 games in the two seasons where he had fewer. It's clear that Fitzgerald is trending down at this point. He won't hit that 20 percent market share.

 

Eric Ebron (TE, IND)

2018 MS: 17%

I couldn't end this article without talking about a tight end, and what better tight end to discuss than Eric Ebron, who had a 17 percent market share of Indianapolis' targets last year. Ebron was second on the team in targets, with just TY Hilton finishing ahead of him.

That's going to change in 2019, as the Colts have added more weapons for Andrew Luck. They signed Devin Funchess, who can be a big red zone target who'll take away Eric Ebron's red zone opportunities. There's rookie Parris Campbell, who's been hyped all Summer and should be used at least as much -- if not more -- than Chester Rogers was last year.

And there's tight end Jack Doyle, who played in just six games after dealing with a variety of injuries, including a freak kidney injury that ended his season early.

When Doyle was healthy in 2017, he was targeted 108 times, catching 80 passes for 690 yards and four touchdowns. Yes, Ebron's presence cuts into Doyle's usage, but a healthy Doyle won't just be ignored. In the five games the two played together, here was Ebron's target share: nine percent, 13 percent, 10 percent, 10 percent, and 18 percent. Only one of those five weeks saw Ebron have a market share higher than his season average, and I'm expecting 2019 to look similar.

Ebron getting a 10 percent market share in this offense isn't going to completely sink his value, especially with how involved he can be down near the goal line, but it does mean that he's likely to be drafted higher than he should be. Ebron's being drafted off of a season where the Colts just didn't have viable weapons. This year, they should have at least two (and maybe three, depending on how fast Campbell gets up to speed) more than last season. The ball's going to be spread around more.

More ADP Busts and Avoids




Today’s Most Viewed Players

More Recent Articles

 

Engel's Angles: ADP Insights, Perspectives on Aaron Judge and Ketel Marte (Premium Content)

Spring training exhibition play has just opened and expert draft season is here. The trends are being firmly established on how to draft, and where to draft certain players. We all know pure ace top starters are going to be taken very early, and there will be a high emphasis on garnering top speed merchants.... Read More


RotoBaller Friends & Family Industry Mock Draft: What the Experts Were Thinking

The RotoBaller Friends & Family Mock Draft has become an annual tradition where we gather some of the biggest names from the fantasy baseball world and put together a mock draft just as spring training has commenced. Thanks to RT Sports for once again hosting and providing a custom draft site where readers could follow... Read More


H2H Points League Draft Strategy

Points leagues are essentially the rawest version of fantasy baseball. These are not players, these are stat-lines and you want to put up as many points per week as possible. Do not get too attached to underperforming players who have name-value and potential. There is a stark difference in draft strategy when it comes to... Read More


2020 Catcher Rankings - Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues

Spring Training is upon us! Pitchers and catchers have reported and we finally have some box scores to desperately over-analyze. The catcher position can really be a headache for dynasty owners trying to plan for the future. Needless to say, it is not a position that many MLB teams count on for offense, leaving fantasy players... Read More


Questionable Closers: An Early Look at Some Unsettled Bullpens

As anyone who has played fantasy baseball for even five minutes knows, bullpens around the league are always in flux. There are fewer and fewer closers who are no doubt, always in for the ninth inning, always healthy, never slumping, and always celebrating wins for their team. We're seeing more and more teams go with... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers – Aaron Civale

With Mike Clevinger sidelined to start the year and Corey Kluber off to Texas, the Indians will rely on the emergence of Aaron Civale to bolster their typically-formidable rotation. Civale impressed in his rookie season with 10 starts, 57.2 innings pitched (IP), a 3-4 win-loss record, 2.34 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 46 Ks. Due to the... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Didi Gregorius

The Philadelphia Phillies finished 2019 with a record of 81-81, which was only good enough for a fourth-place finish in the NL East. They have since added the likes of Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius to improve their chances of a division title in 2020. They have also brought in highly-touted manager Joe Girardi to... Read More


2020 Keeper Value Rankings - Shortstop

If you're keeping up with the Keeper Value Rankings, you know we've already covered First Base, Second Base, and Third Base. Today, we will address Shortstop. These rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft pick in order to keep a player into the upcoming season. These rankings are based... Read More


ADP Showdown: Anthony Rendon vs. Rafael Devers

The first two rounds in your fantasy draft can be challenging because each available player is tremendously skilled with significant upside. Every pick looks desirable, so it’s important to try to determine which player has a greater likelihood of producing superior fantasy production. This can be accomplished by examining overall production and team context.  This... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Staff Rankings

Below you will find RotoBaller's 2020 fantasy baseball rankings, tiers and auction dollar values for the 2020 MLB season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Mixed, Head-to-Head, Points, AL/NL Only, Two-Catcher Top 2020 prospects, Dynasty leagues, Keeper values Export the rankings easily... Read More


MLB Closers and Saves: Fantasy Baseball Depth Charts

Saves are an important component for many fantasy baseball leagues. Closers are one of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball, and one of the highest turnover positions in MLB. Each year, closers drop like flies and many MLB teams make in-season changes due to injuries or poor performance. Stay on top of all closer depth... Read More


Industry Expert Mock: ADP Surprises

Pierre Camus and Nicklaus Gaut break down the recent RotoBaller Friends & Family industry mock draft to see how the experts fared and look at some of the most surprising picks, for better or worse. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and... Read More


Fantasy Insider Angles - Thor, Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis and More (Premium Content)

Success in baseball isn’t always just about pure numbers. For those who play the game and are inside the clubhouse, it’s also about creating the right chemistry and environment. As the New York Mets opened spring training this season, there was a fresh air of optimism around the team. It also seemed to extend to... Read More


Points League Ranker Tool - NFBC

All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. Brought to you by RotoBaller's Nicklaus Gaut (@Nt_BurtReynolds), this Points Rankings tool uses RotoBaller's 2020 MLB projections to build out custom rankings for NFBC Points Leagues. The tool uses the default NFBC scoring settings. All fantasy baseball platforms have different scoring settings for their points leagues.... Read More


Points League Ranker Tool - CBS

All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. Brought to you by RotoBaller's Nicklaus Gaut (@Nt_BurtReynolds), this Points Rankings tool uses RotoBaller's 2020 MLB projections to build out custom rankings for CBS Points Leagues. The tool uses the default CBS scoring settings. All fantasy baseball platforms have different scoring settings for their points leagues.... Read More