X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Pitcher Risers/Fallers - Statcast Scoreboard (Week 16)

Statcast risers and fallers for week 16 at the SP position recaps the first half. Andrew Le looks at starting pitchers who could be buys or sells according to sabermetrics.

Welcome back to Rotoballer's series using Statcast to extrapolate, dig into, and commiserate over data to examine pitching performances. The weekly series will be dynamic as we fine-tune our findings and enlighten ourselves on the information and tools at our disposal.

It's All-Star Week so rather than approaching the column in typical fashion, we'll use this edition for reflection, savoring and reprimanding yours truly for my calls to-date. It's been an immensely fun and rewarding exercise to unearth interesting Statcast-related topics to discuss each week and while us fantasy analysts are never 100% accurate, providing multiple perspectives and angles are how we hope to help our faithful readers.

The conclusion for my report card is inconclusive. Relativity is the name of the game, and I think I tried my best to identify mispriced starters at the appropriate time based on the weekly theme. There have been some successes and some face-plants on the way. Not all the namedrops are agreeable, but that's what makes a market in the awesome world of fantasy baseball.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Half-Year In Review

All stats as of July 16

Week 2 - Barrel %

Our maiden endeavor looked at Barrel data. For risers, Tyson Ross has enjoyed a renaissance campaign after two injury-marred seasons. He's rewarded owners that snatched him up early with 11 quality starts and serviceable ratios (8.06 K/9, 1.27 WHIP). Lance McCullers Jr.'s Barrels/BBE has worsened to 8.2% so his ERA remains stubbornly high. As expected the .455 BABIP from Week 2 collapsed to.268 leading to a 30-point drop in WHIP. McCullers' FIP (3.63) confirms he'll be a strong play in the second half on a high-powered Astros team.

Zack Greinke and Michael Wacha still sit in the top-half of barrels surrendered. While Greinke's fantasy value is supported by his strikeouts and excellent control (5.39 K/BB), Wacha's someone to avoid for the exact same reasons (1.97 K/BB).

Week 3 - BABIP

Our risers based on BABIP are a mixed bag. Sonny Gray continues to be a disaster but it's a relative call at this point. Most managers are probably looking for reasons to dump him but the significant difference between his ERA (5.46) and FIP (4.34) indicates he's worth the risk as a waiver flyer or dirt-cheap trade offer. Vince Velasquez hasn't seen his value change much since our bullish call. He continues to lean too heavily on his curveball instead of the league's sixth-best changeup which he throws a paltry 5% of pitches.

The microscopic BABIPs of Reynaldo Lopez (.154) and Sean Manaea (.169) were clearly unsustainable and both devolved meaningfully. Lopez struggles badly with control, hindering his K-potential while Manaea still sports a fortuitous BABIP of .222. Both could continue falling in the second half.

Week 4 - Exit Velocity

Our argument in Week 4 was the reversal of early but fluky exit velocity results. J.A. Happ has lowered his average exit velocity to 88.5 MPH and the veteran's solid ratios (9.99 K/9, 1.19 WHIP) should keep him a useful fantasy asset. The verdict is still out on Robbie Ray who missed two months with an oblique injury. His four starts since returning haven't been encouraging (5.23 ERA, 1.45 WHIP)

Like Ray, Hyun-Jin Ryu suffered a long-term injury (groin) shortly after our bearish call but was in the middle of a breakout season. Rick Porcello's sparkling numbers from early on have evaporated, possibly directly linked from his exit velocity rising from 85.5 to 88.4 MPH. Porcello's current stats are about where they should be (3.76 FIP) so consider him fairly valued now.

Week 5 - wOBA-xwOBA

We delved into the intricacies of actual versus expected outcomes in Week 5. Both our risers (Sean Newcomb, Dallas Keuchel) made positive strides with Newcomb emerging as a must-own in fantasy leagues. However, he's badly struggling with walks (4.46 BB/9) so beware a reversal of fortune.

We were triumphant in our faller calls. Jarlin Garcia hasn't pitched in the majors since June 1 and Jake Junis started deteriorating in May and officially turned into a pumpkin in June. His xwOBA is a staggering .351 (MLB average is .317).

Week 6 - Two-Strike xBA

James Paxton promptly threw a no-hitter after we touted him in Week 6. The delta between his Two-strike xBA and BA has tightened considerably to .016 so Statcast worked its magic. Eduardo Rodriguez has lowered his ERA by almost two runs since our analysis. The strikeouts and wins upside keep him on all fantasy radars, but a recent ankle injury might put his season in serious jeopardy.

For our fallers, continue to avoid both Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Williams. Gonzalez holds a miserable 4.25 BB/9 while Trevor Williams no longer has the strong ERA to support his lack of strikeouts (6.45 K/9).

Week 7 - Early-Inning SLG

It might've been unfair to classify Justin Verlander a riser, but our thesis in Week 7 was searching for consistency via early-inning results. While his ERA has jumped from 1.21 to 2.29, Verlander is still money and merits top dollar. For all the yammering about Patrick Corbin's declining velocity, his impressive numbers have barely changed and the strikeouts remain outstanding (10.96 K/9).

For our fallers, Luis Castillo should no longer be rostered in standard fantasy leagues. His fastball is down from 97.7 last season to 95.6 MPH, resulting in a poor wFB/C of -1.37. Chris Archer is still getting stretched out after a month-long absence with an abdominal strain but hasn't made it past five innings in his two starts since returning. He's a buy-low target despite the continuation of the early-inning woes.

Week 8 - Poor-Contact ISO

Jose Quintana's numbers have improved since we discussed his league-worst .167 ISO on poor contact in Week 8. That figure is now .117 but still 29 points higher than the next closest pitcher. Maybe it's something structural, but Quintana's walks (4.15 BB/9) and FIP (4.63) are not his friend, making him tough to defend. Jameson Taillon has been a streamer hero for me this season. His numbers have hardly shifted since our previous discussion but strikeouts are up to 8.75 K/9.

On the flipside, Jake Odorizzi's unsustainable Soft% and LOB% fell substantially and his ERA (4.54) and FIP (4.64) have predictably normalized. A still-depressed weak contact ISO of .021 hasn't helped Cole Hamels, who continues to yield hard contact (43.7%) and long balls (20.2% HR/FB) at an alarming rate.

Week 9 - O-Swings-and-Misses

Maybe I was grasping at straws this week, but I regurgitated both Corbin (riser) and Williams (faller) when discussing swinging strikes outside the zone. Trevor Bauer keeps mowing down hitters (11.69 K/9) and his peripherals suggest he a realistic top-15 starter for the stretch run. Our other faller was Tyler Chatwood, who's finally brought his K/BB above 1.0 (1.04). Well done Chatty. Aside from that backhand achievement, his season's been horrendous and the 20% ownership should be closer to zero.

Week 10 - Monthly wOBA Splits

We looked at xwOBA data on a monthly basis in Week 10. Unfortunately, our risers were Caleb Smith and Tanner Roark. Smith is out for the year after undergoing surgery to repair a lat injury. Meanwhile, Roark has seen his xwOBA spike back to .352. Combining that performance with a BABIP increasing from .241 to .306 has not been an effective recipe. Roark's once again settled in as a middling starter with a laughable 3-12 record.

We were down again on Rick Porcello here, but as mentioned he's appropriately valued at this juncture. Alex Wood has settled his xwOBA (.309) between April's luck (.248) and May's perils (.349) so he too seems fairly priced. The worrisome changeup has self-corrected to an above-average normalized pitch value of 0.69.

Week 11 - Full Count Inefficiency

Week 11's topic was an emotionally fueled selection for us fantasy viewers that have intolerance for laborious innings. Those are precious pitches wasted! We opted for longshots Kevin Gausman and Brandon McCarthy to prove our point. While they haven't made material steps in their headline returns, both are useful streamers in the second half.

Mike Foltynewicz has seen his ERA tick up since our column and while he's still providing quality strikeout and WHIP ratios, his HR/FB (0.89) and LOB% (80.4%) seem too lucky to overpay for. Our other faller was Eduardo Rodriguez, who's fantasy discussion is on indefinite hold while he works through a possibly devastating injury.

Week 12 - Fastball Quality

We keyed in on the high, stinky cheddar for Week 12, identifying Velasquez and Tyler Mahle as heater specialists. Velasquez is safe to queue up away from Citizens Bank Park (2.42 ERA away), but tough to trust consistently until he improves his pitch mix. Mahle's had an up-and-down rookie season and his fastball has relapsed in July (5% whiff rate, .350 BAA). Hold him if you have the patience.

Zack Godley hasn't budged since we tried to downgrade him, so chalk that up as a loss for me. His batted-ball metrics remain discouraging with a 94.0 MPH FB/LD exit velocity. Dylan Bundy has worked his way towards fantasy obsolescence, with a 7.32 ERA since June 17.

Week 13 - June FB/LD Exit Velocity

We touted Brent Suter and Eric Lauer in Week 13 due to their soft FB/LD tendencies. Neither have jumped off the page since, but could be deployable in spurts after the break. Suter's pinpoint control (1.74 BB/9) makes him regularly competitive. Despite a July 15 meltdown (2 IP, 5 ER), Lauer has shown flashes including coming within an out of shutting out the Dodgers on July 10.

Gerrit Cole has yet to be impacted by his higher-than-normal FB/LD exit velocity (93.9 MPH), so serves me right for trying to hate on an ace. Our other faller was Luis Castillo, who I ranted about in Week 7's recap.

Week 14 - Pitching Under Pressure
Week 15 - wOBA-xwOBA Splits (before and after May 31)

Since we're only two weeks removed (or less) from the last couple columns, it's tough to claim victory or admit defeat. We can rank our risers and fallers in order of confidence as follows:

Risers - CC Sabathia, Nick Pivetta, German Marquez, Jhoulys Chacin
Fallers - Jon Lester, David Price, Kenta Maeda, Andrew Heaney

 

More Sabermetrics & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Giancarlo Stanton

to Make Season Debut on Monday
Will Campbell

Ends Minicamp as Top Left Tackle
Sam Cosmi

Making Good Progress From Torn ACL
Kamaru Usman

Gets Back In The Win Column
Adonai Mitchell

Impresses at Minicamp
Joaquin Buckley

Winning Streak Comes To An End
Miranda Maverick

Drops Decision At UFC Atlanta
Bradley Chubb

Fully Healed, Looking Disruptive
Jonnu Smith

Contract Talks "Still Fluid"
Rose Namajunas

Wins Decision At UFC Atlanta
Andre Petroski

Suffers Unanimous-Decision Loss
Edmen Shahbazyan

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Raoni Barcelos

Wins Third Fight In A Row
Chase Elliott

Ends Mexico City with A Great Finish of Third
Christopher Bell

has A Strong Runner-Up Performance At Mexico City
Chase Briscoe

Wild Day Ends with A Top-10 Finish
Michael McDowell

Leaves Mexico City with A Top-Five Finish
Cody Garbrandt

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Cody Brundage

Defeated After Accidental Clash Of Heads
Cody Brundage

Mansur Abdul-Malik Defeats Cody Brundage By Technical Decision
Oumar Sy

Suffers His First Loss
Alonzo Menifield

Scores Upset Win
Alex Bowman

Delivers Bravura Performance After Michigan Injury
Tyler Reddick

Inexplicably Mediocre on his Once-Best Track Type
John Hunter Nemechek

Canny Strategy Gives John Hunter Nemechek Best Career Road-Course Finish
Cole Custer

Earns Best Finish Since Cup-Series Comeback at Mexico City
Grant Holmes

Punches Out 15 in Loss
Elly De La Cruz

Goes Yard in Fourth Straight Game
Will Vest

Dealing With Finger Injury
Jackson Merrill

Placed on Seven-Day Concussion Injured List
J.J. McCarthy

Looking "a Lot Stronger"
Shohei Ohtani

Will Be Dodgers' Starting Pitcher Monday
Roki Sasaki

Shut Down From Throwing
Garrett Wilson

Receives New Contract Offer
Jordan Hicks

Headed to Boston
Kyle Harrison

Traded to Red Sox
Travis Kelce

Slims Down During the Offseason
Trey Hendrickson

Bengals Restart Contract Discussions
Brady House

Nationals Promoting Brady House to Major Leagues
Rafael Devers

Traded to San Francisco
Logan Gilbert

to Start on Monday
Jayden Higgins

Impresses During Minicamp
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

on the Move to Memphis
Cole Anthony

Dealt to the Grizzlies
Seattle Seahawks

DeMarcus Lawrence Making an Impression With his New Team
Isaiah Simmons

Being Used Exclusively as a Linebacker
Tyler Mahle

Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Travis Etienne Jr.

the Jaguars Lead Back?
Luis Robert Jr.

Scratched with Thumb Soreness
Desmond Bane

Traded to Orlando
Byron Buxton

Scratched from Sunday's Lineup
Daniel Jones

the Favorite in Colts QB Competition?
Brendan Donovan

Returns to the Lineup
Steven Adams

Rockets Agree to Three-Year Contract Extension
Royce Lewis

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Ty Dillon

Is a Respectable Cap Flexiblity-Focused DFS Option For Mexico City
Corey Perry

Produces 10th Postseason Goal
Connor McDavid

Scores First Finals Goal
John Hunter Nemechek

Is John Hunter Nemechek Worth Rostering In Mexico City DFS Lineups?
Shohei Ohtani

Blasts Two Homers in Win
Sam Bennett

Nets Another Road Goal in Game 5 Win
Eetu Luostarinen

Earns Two Points Saturday
Michael King

Not Making Progress
Brad Marchand

Pots Two Goals in Game 5 Victory
Jackson Merrill

Removed Early on Saturday
Sergei Bobrovsky

Ties NHL Record with 10th Road Win
Ross Chastain

Trackhouse Racing's Mexico Focus Makes Ross Chastain a Leading Contender for the Win
Kyle Busch

One of Two Past Mexico City Winners in the Field
Ryan Preece

Earns Surprising Front-Row Start
Austin Cindric

Not as Strong of a Road Racer as People Think
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Stronger on Infield Road Courses Than Purpose-Built Ones
Joey Logano

Seemingly Alternating Between Good and Mediocre Races
Brad Keselowski

One of the Few Drivers with Mexico City Experience
Denny Hamlin

Ryan Truex Makes First Cup Series Start Since 2014
Erik Jones

Mexico City Will Likely be a Struggle for Erik Jones
Noah Gragson

Front Row Motorsports' Speed May Make Noah Gragson a Decent DFS Option
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Road Courses Are Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s Worst Track Type
Giancarlo Stanton

Likely Returning Early Next Week
Emeka Egbuka

"the Talk" of Bucs Minicamp
Evander Kane

Drops to Fourth Line Saturday
Kasperi Kapanen

Won't Play on Saturday
Calvin Pickard

Starts Game 5 for Oilers
Jaxson Dart

Working as No. 2 QB During Offseason Workouts
Xavier Gipson

Roster Spot Could be in Jeopardy
Josh Reynolds

the Front-Runner for WR2 Duties
Garrett Wilson

Stock Up This Offseason
Breece Hall

Motivated Going into 2025 Season
Brandon Aiyuk

Making Good Progress From Knee Injury
Tyrese Haliburton

Struggles in Friday's Loss to OKC
Chet Holmgren

Dominates the Glass in Game 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads the Way in Game 4
Jalen Williams

Has a Quality Showing on Friday Night
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option
Kevin Durant

Trade Could Happen in the "Next Few Days"
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

Set To Take On Former Champion
Cody Garbrandt

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Connor Hellebuyck

Wins Vezina And Hart Trophies
Aleksander Barkov

Records Two Power-Play Assists Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Collects Three Points in Thursday's Loss
Matthew Tkachuk

Notches Three Points in Losing Effort
Calvin Pickard

Joins Exclusive List with Thursday's Win
Mattias Ekholm

Logs Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Leon Draisaitl

Delivers Victory in Overtime Thursday
Myles Turner

Playing Through Illness
Reed Sheppard

Will Play in the NBA Summer League
Kevin Durant

Deal Could Come Sooner Rather Than Later
Dorian Finney-Smith

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Jalen Williams

Leads Thunder in Scoring Wednesday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Settles for 24 Points in Game 3 Loss
Pascal Siakam

Does Everything for Pacers Wednesday Night
Tyrese Haliburton

Gets Close to Triple-Double in Game 3 Win
Bennedict Mathurin

Leads All Scorers with 27 Points Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Has Second Offseason Surgery
Jaylen Brown

Undergoes Successful Knee Procedure
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Primed for Another Major Championship Run
Cameron Young

May Struggle at U.S. Open
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Third Major Championship Title
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeks to Avenge Oakmont Collapse
Jordan Spieth

Can Contend at Oakmont
Shane Lowry

a Strong Value Play at U.S. Open
Brooks Koepka

Seeks Another Major Win at Oakmont
Viktor Hovland

Still Can Improve at U.S. Open
Michael Kim

a Boom-or-Bust Value Play at U.S. Open
Russell Henley

Looking to Play the Weekend at Oakmont
Tyrrell Hatton

a Safe Option at U.S. Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Eyeing Third U.S. Open Title
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF