RADIO
Elliott looks at fantasy baseball sleeper pitchers with surprising starts recently. These SPs are potential breakout candidates could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets for Week 14 in 2025.
Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 14 of the 2025 fantasy baseball season. For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly column where we take a look at starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legitimate or just smoke and mirrors.
Lots of interesting pitchers doing interesting things this week, and we're going to take a look at two unheralded arms and one highly heralded veteran on the comeback trail. First, we'll deep dive into David Festa's strong start against Detroit. Then, we'll look at Justin Verlander's resurgence in San Francisco. We'll finish it off by breaking down Brandon Walter's surprise performance for Houston.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of June 30.
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David Festa, Minnesota Twins – 4% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 31 IP, 6.39 ERA, 5.29 FIP, 11.9% K-BB%
06/27 @ DET: 5.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
Festa had his best start of the season on Friday, blanking the first-place Tigers over five and two-thirds innings in the victory. Festa has had a rough time on the mound since returning from the minors on June 5, putting up a 7.61 ERA in five starts, including allowing eight earned runs on two separate occasions. Has Festa put these troubles behind him, or is he a ticking time bomb for your ratios?
Originally a 13th-round pick out of Seton Hall by the Twins in 2021, Festa wasn’t considered much of a prospect initially, but some strong minor league performances raised his stock. Festa has a 3.41 ERA and 11.1 K/9 across all minor league levels. The strikeouts have translated to the major leagues, with Festa currently sporting a 10.25 K/9 in 101 MLB innings. Unfortunately, that comes with a 5.08 ERA, 3.39 BB/9, and 1.34 HR/9.
Festa works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and sinker. His most-used pitch this season has been the four-seamer, which he throws 33% of the time, but his most-used pitch in this start was the slider, which he threw 41% of the time against Detroit. An 87.6 mph offering, Festa’s slider has roughly average vertical movement and below-average horizontal movement. Here’s an example from this start.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) June 30, 2025
He throws it relatively hard, but it lacks that big, exciting movement that we love to see with sliders. Festa can still get strikeouts with the pitch, however, as evidenced by his 34.5% whiff rate on the year and earning five of nine swinging strikes with this pitch against the Tigers on Friday. Overall, batters are hitting .257 against the pitch with a .457 SLG and .327 wOBA. Not great, not terrible, but there are some concerning signs here.
Festa has a .563 xSLG with the pitch, along with a 93.2 mph average exit velocity and a 17-degree average launch angle. That amount of power surrendered tells me that Festa misses often with the pitch. Let’s have a peek at his slider heatmap from this season.
That’s a lot of sliders left in the zone, and he has a 49.1% zone rate with his slider this season. Generally, one wants sliders to be down and away, and Festa is doing that a lot, but he’s also leaving them in hittable places often. Now let’s look at the heatmap with opponent slugging percentage.
Lots of red and purple inside that square, and I can’t imagine Festa intends to throw cookies down the middle. Inconsistent command means inconsistent results, and that’s what we’ve seen out of Festa so far. It’s interesting that he used his slider so often in this start, and if located well, the slider is not a bad pitch. Perhaps increased slider usage could be a positive trend for Festa, but I need to see him do it over multiple starts before I can trust him.
Leaning on the slider more often may not be a bad thing for Festa, because it would mean less reliance on his four-seam fastball. A 94.4 mph offering, Festa has thrown his four-seamer 33% of the time this season. Batters have handled the pitch well, hitting .347 with a .551 SLG and .435 wOBA against the fastball. The expected stats aren’t much better, and with a .319 xBA, .542 xSLG, and .418 xwOBA, the numbers suggest that Festa has earned these poor results.
Festa’s four-seamer has below-average movement and slightly above-average spin, giving it an atypical shape but one that batters have had no trouble with. What kills Festa are the line drives and fly-balls. He has a 24-degree average launch angle and just a 30% ground-ball rate with the pitch. That means lots and lots of power against, and Festa has given up his fair share of extra-base hits with his four-seamer already.
There could be some room for improvement on his current 1.47 HR/9, but his 12.8% HR/FB ratio isn’t too far from league average. Home runs weren’t a big problem for him in the minors, but with this heavy fly-ball profile, I could see him succumbing to the long ball on semi-frequent occasions.
The four-seamer may be susceptible to power, but one pitch that has been phenomenal for Festa is his changeup. An 87.9 mph offering, Festa throws his changeup 29.6% of the time, though he only threw it 20% of the time against Detroit. Batters have really struggled against this pitch, hitting just .140 with a .302 SLG and .231 wOBA. Festa has below-average movement with the pitch, but with a low 1767 RPM spin rate and an atypical shape, it’s been difficult for batters to square up.
Opponents have an 84.7 mph average exit velocity off the changeup and a 50% ground-ball rate compared to just an 11.5% line drive rate. The line drive rate and the .167 BABIP won’t hold, but Festa has some impressive strikeout metrics with this pitch. He has a 41.8% whiff rate and a 30.6% chase rate with his changeup. One thing I like about Festa’s changeup is that he’s not afraid to use it against hitters from both sides of the plate. A lot of pitchers only throw their changeup to opposite-handed hitters, but if it’s an effective pitch, I say fire away, and that’s precisely what Festa is doing.
Verdict:
Despite some ugly surface stats, Festa does have a few things going for him. He has two plus secondary pitches in his slider and changeup. He has routinely posted above-average strikeout rates in the majors and minors. Those strikeout numbers are supported by strong whiff rates and individual pitch metrics, but there are aspects of this pitching profile that give me pause. Festa’s fastball is not good, and he is not good at commanding it. His command is shaky overall, making him susceptible to power and blow-up starts, and he’s had two separate eight-run outings already.
He's too risky to be a rotation mainstay for me, but he could have a place as a high-volatility streamer thanks to his strikeout prowess. One issue with streaming Festa is that he has a short leash on the mound. This start was only the second time he’s completed at least five innings this season, and he only threw 75 pitches before getting the hook.
Even if you stream him, you might only get four or five innings, meaning he won’t get many wins and he won’t get many raw strikeouts, even if the rate is reasonable. His next start does come Thursday against the Marlins, so if there were ever a time to take a chance on Festa, that’d be it. But only stream him if you are willing to risk your ratios or are already behind in weekly H2H.
Justin Verlander, San Francisco Giants – 27% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 61.2 IP, 4.52 ERA, 4.46 FIP, 10.8% K-BB%
06/29 @ CHW: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
Verlander notched his first quality start since May 12 on Sunday, holding the White Sox to just one run over six innings while striking out three. Verlander had been inefficient since returning from the injured list, putting up a 5.59 ERA in two starts prior to Sunday. It’s been a tough year for Verlander overall, as his 4.26 ERA is nearly a run higher than his career mark. Is this a sign that the veteran is turning things around, or is he cooked?
A few years ago, it would have been unthinkable that Verlander would be featured in a column for surprisingly good starts, because he was just always good. The three-time Cy Young winner (should be four) even put up a 3.22 ERA in 27 starts back in 2023, but he’s fallen off a cliff since then. Between 2024 and 2025, he had a 4.96 ERA in 158 innings, a far cry from his peak as one of the best pitchers in baseball. Verlander works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, changeup, and sweeper.
Verlander’s most-used pitch is his fastball, which he throws about 49% of the time. He’s used his fastball less and less as he’s aged; during his peak, he was throwing it between 55-60% of the time. He hasn’t lost too much velocity over the years, as he’s still averaging 93.9 mph on the gun, compared to a career mark of 94.3 mph. Unfortunately, batters have had no problem handling a Verlander fastball in 2025.
Opponents are hitting .273 with a .527 SLG and .379 wOBA off the pitch, but what’s concerning is the expected stats. Verlander has a .318 xBA, .601 xSLG, and .420 xwOBA off his fastball this season. Batters are pulverizing the ball for a 92.2 mph average exit velocity and a 23-degree average launch angle. What’s killing Verlander’s fastball is a 30.1% line drive rate, up 7% from his career mark.
Hard line drives are just about the best thing a batter can do at the plate, so it’s not surprising to see such poor expected numbers. In fact, Verlander is rather lucky to have a .281 BABIP against his four-seamer this season, given the batted ball profile. Verlander still throws hard for his age, but MLB doesn’t grade on a curve, and 94 is 94 any way you slice it. He has slightly above average movement with the pitch, but he’s lost plenty of movement over the years. Let’s compare a few movement profiles for Verlander.
2025:
2022:
2018
I understand I went pretty far back, but you can see the pitch slowly shift towards a more typical shape over time. Add in about 200 RPMs lost in spin, and you’ve got a deteriorated fastball.
So, Verlander’s fastball isn’t all that great anymore, but what about the secondary stuff? His most-used secondary pitch is the slider, which he’s thrown 24% of the time this season. An 87.4 mph offering, Verlander’s slider has below-average vertical movement and average horizontal movement. He’s gotten some mixed results with the pitch so far, with batters hitting .269 against the slider with a .433 SLG and .324 wOBA.
Unlike the fastball, the expected stats are much better on Verlander’s slider. Opponents have a .218 xBA, .397 xSLG, and .287 xwOBA off the pitch this season. It’s been much harder for batters to crush the slider, as opponents have an 87.1 mph average exit velocity off the pitch, along with a 14.9% line drive rate. Verlander could see some improvement on the results with this pitch, as he has a .266 career BABIP against it, but a .303 BABIP against it this season.
The slider can be an effective out pitch, but it is no longer a dominant strikeout offering. Verlander has just a 31.5% whiff rate with it this season, and got four of six whiffs with it on Sunday, good for a 31% whiff rate. A serviceable pitch, but not very exciting, and the days of Verlander being an above-average strikeout pitcher are gone.
One pitch that has caused problems for Verlander is his curveball, which he usually throws 10.9% of the time, but he threw it 22% of the time against Chicago on Sunday. Batters have crushed this pitch for a .400 AVG, .520 SLG, and .432 wOBA. The expected stats suggest that Verlander has been unlucky to a degree, with a .314 xBA, .440 xSLG, and .363 xwOBA. The expected stats on this pitch are somehow better than his four-seam fastball despite a 127-point gap between batting averages.
What makes the curveball bad is the lack of whiffs. Verlander has a pitiful 14.6% whiff rate with his curveball this season, and he got zero whiffs with it on Sunday despite more than doubling his usage rate. Perhaps he could see improvement on his .393 BABIP against the pitch, but he is allowing a 32.1% line drive rate with his curveball as well. This doesn’t seem like an effective pitch anymore, and it’s curious that Verlander would increase his usage so much. The White Sox did start five lefties against Verlander on Sunday, so perhaps that was a factor, but increased curveball usage is not a trend I want to see from Verlander.
Verlander rounds his repertoire out with a changeup, and that changeup has been incredibly effective compared to his other pitches. Batters are hitting .130 off the pitch with a .130 SLG and .182 wOBA. He also has an impressive 40.4% whiff rate with the pitch. He mostly throws it to lefties, which is why it’s odd to see such high curveball usage in this start.
The changeup was never a big part of Verlander’s game, and it’s highly likely that his .200 BABIP regresses towards league average, so I don’t think Verlander would suddenly transform himself if he began relying on the changeup more often. If anything, the changeup performance would regress with increased usage.
Verdict:
Washed. Cooked. Shot. Done-zo. Over the hill. Past his prime. Kaput. Those are words and phrases I would use to describe the current version of Justin Verlander. In his day, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball, but at age 42, his stuff is no longer consistently effective, even to serve as a streamer. He doesn’t get strikeouts, and he rarely pitches deep enough to earn a win or quality start, seeing as he’s 0-5 on the year.
He’s been a WHIP and ERA liability over the past two seasons, and one good start against the White Sox isn’t enough to earn my trust. There’s just no upside to streaming or using him outside of deep or NL-only leagues. His 27% roster rate indicates that he is over-rostered in Yahoo leagues, and managers holding him should consider dropping him for a chance on someone else, like the next pitcher we're going to cover.
Brandon Walter, Houston Astros – 15% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 23.2 IP, 3.80 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 23.2% K-BB%
06/27 vs. CHC: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K
Walter bounced back big time on Friday after a seven-run stinker his previous time out versus the Angels. He shut down the mighty Chicago Cubs, holding them to just one run over six innings, earning his first career victory and notching yet another quality start. Walter has quality starts in three of his last four outings, with the seven-run stinker being the only time he missed it. Is Walter going to be a rotation mainstay, or is he best left on the wire?
Originally a 26th-round pick by Boston back in 2019, Walter wasn’t much of a prospect coming up. In fact, he was DFA’d by Boston in 2024 after a short cup of coffee in 2023, which is how he wound up in Houston. Walter works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a cutter, sweeper, changeup, four-seamer, and sinker. He mixes in all of his pitches frequently, throwing each offering at least 13.5% of the time. Interestingly, his least-used pitches are his four-seamer and sinker, and his most-used pitch is the cutter, which he throws 29% of the time.
An 88.4 mph offering, Walter’s cutter is primarily used against opposite-handed hitters; he has only thrown five cutters to lefties all season. Walter’s cutter is characterized by average movement, giving it a typical shape. Batters have had no problem with the pitch either, as opponents are hitting .316 with a .684 SLG and .429 wOBA off Walter’s cutter.
Batters are just smoking the ball, with a 91.3 mph average exit velocity and a 13-degree average launch angle against. A 27% line drive rate doesn’t help, and the expected stats suggest that he’s earned these results with a .333 xBA, .552 xSLG, and .385 xwOBA. Walter primarily uses this pitch early in the count or when behind in the count. It’s not his strikeout pitch, and it’s not all that great of a pitch. Walter used his four-seamer more than the cutter in this one, and that could be a positive trend for him.
When it comes to opponent performance, there’s no comparison between Walter’s cutter and four-seamer. The cutter has been getting clobbered, but batters have been stymied by Walter’s fastball. Overall, opponents are hitting just .059 against Walter’s four-seamer with a .059 SLG and .052 wOBA. There has been one hit off this pitch all season. A 91.9 mph offering, it’s not the velocity that is making batters struggle.
It’s hard to chalk this performance up to anything but a small sample size. He’s only thrown 71 four-seamers all season, and there is no chance that the .125 BABIP against holds, especially with a 28.6% line drive rate, 90.6 mph average exit velocity, and 9-degree average launch angle against. Walter does have above-average movement with the pitch, giving it an atypical shape, but that’s about all he’s got going for him with his fastball. He will experience regression with this pitch, especially as he throws it more and more.
Fastballs aren’t everything, and one area where Walter shines is with his secondary stuff. His best pitch has been the changeup, as batters are hitting .190 off the pitch with a .286 SLG and .203 wOBA. The expected stats are even better with a .163 xBA, .195 xSLG, and .156 xwOBA against. The trick? Batters have a paltry 80.3 mph average exit velocity against this pitch.
There’s no oomph behind their hits, and they are struggling to hit the ball with authority. Walter also has a 3-degree average launch angle against and a 61.1% ground-ball rate with the pitch. It might be tough for him to sustain those numbers over a longer period, but these are great numbers to see under the hood. I don’t expect the 5.6% line drive rate or the .222 BABIP against this pitch to hold, but it’s his best offering nonetheless.
Walter’s sweeper has been less effective, with batters hitting .269 with a .538 SLG and .371 wOBA off the pitch. He also only has a 26% whiff rate, inadequate for a sweeper. Walter also has a 58.8% ground-ball rate and an 81.1 mph average exit velocity against his sweeper, meaning lots of weak ground-balls when batters make contact. Walter doesn’t really have the stuff to maintain his 24.6% strikeout rate, but maybe he could be around 20-21%.
Walter’s strikeout stuff may be questionable, but one thing he does really well is limit walks. Walter has a microscopic 1.6% BB rate this season, having issued just two walks total in five starts. That is probably unsustainable, too, but Walter has displayed excellent command throughout his minor league tenure, and his command was probably his best attribute as a prospect. Between his soft contact prowess and ability to limit walks, Walter could be a WHIP helper, which is tough to find on waivers this late into the season.
Verdict:
Walter is certainly pitching over his head to a degree, but there might be some value here after all. He has a deep repertoire of pitches, and while none stand out as a dominant pitch, all seem serviceable enough for him to get by. Expect a reduction in strikeouts as his secondary stuff isn’t generating the whiff numbers to support a 24.6% K rate. He has exceptional control and should do a good job limiting baserunners on the mound.
I’m not ready to trust him every time; the stuff isn’t that good, and the recent seven-run blow-up gives me some trepidation. Still, he is firmly streamable and worth an add in deeper leagues where available. He pitches for a winning club and could be a good source of WHIP and maybe ERA as well. Walter could maybe lose his rotation spot when Spencer Arrighetti returns (whenever that is), though right now it’s probably Lance McCullers Jr. who’d be kicked to the bullpen.
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