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Expert Week 12 Thursday Night Football bets, anytime TD scorer, and player prop predictions. Free TNF betting picks, anytime TD scorer, and player props for Week 12.
Thursday Night Football heads to Houston, Texas, this week for an AFC clash between the 5-5 Houston Texans and the 7-3 Buffalo Bills. The Bills rode quarterback Josh Allen's six total touchdowns to a 44-32 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, while the Texans walked off the Titans on a 35-yard field goal by Matthew Wright.
A big story out of Buffalo on Sunday morning was second-year wide receiver Keon Coleman being a healthy inactive after being late to a meeting, and it appears that will be the case again on Thursday night. Davis Mills will be in line to make his third consecutive start with C.J. Stroud ruled out again due to a concussion.
Can the Bills take care of business as road favorites, or will the Texans make it three straight wins? Let's get to the picks!
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— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) November 19, 2025
Thursday Night Football Odds and Spread
Buffalo Bills -5.5 (-290 ML) at Houston Texans (+235 ML)
Over/Under (43.5)
The Bills are 2-2 in primetime this season and 1-0 on Thursday night with a home win over the Dolphins in Week 3. They opened the season with a thrilling comeback victory over the Baltimore Ravens in arguably the game of the year on Sunday night. Buffalo then handled Miami on Thursday night in Week 3, before dropping back-to-back primetime games in Weeks 5 and 6 against the Patriots and Falcons.
Wednesday injury report pic.twitter.com/HjKs4OYv0q
— Buffalo Bills PR (@BuffaloBillsPR) November 19, 2025
Houston, on the other hand, is 0-2 in primetime games this year with losses to the Bucs in Week 2 and the Seahawks in Week 7, both on Monday night. They fared decently under the bright lights last season with a 2-2 record, though Stroud played in all of those games.
Houston #Texans Wednesday Injury Report & Game Status Report for Week 12 vs. the Buffalo Bills.
The team will conduct a walkthrough on Wednesday, November 19. The injury report is only an estimation of a player's participation if there was a full practice. pic.twitter.com/dpjPwz2sFA
— Houston Texans PR (@TexansPR) November 19, 2025
Allen has a clean 8-0 career record as the Bills starter on Thursdays, but he has had his struggles against this Texans team. Mills has made two career starts in primetime, both coming on Thursday night. The Texans lost both of those games by multiple scores.
2025 Betting Trends:
- Against the Spread: HOU 4-6, BUF 5-5
- As Home Team ATS: HOU 3-2
- As Away Team ATS: BUF 2-2
- Over Game Total: HOU 3-6-1, BUF 5-5
Thursday Night Football Game Picks
The Bills have struggled against the Texans historically. In five meetings in Houston since 2012, the Bills are 0-5 with an average of just 15.6 points per game while also failing to reach 20 points. The Texans' defense has been elite over the past two seasons under head coach DeMeco Ryans, and they put Allen in the blender last season.
In their Week 5 matchup, Allen completed just nine of 30 pass attempts for 131 yards and a touchdown to go with four rushes for 54 yards. He managed to mitigate negative plays with no turnovers and only one sack for a loss of five yards despite a season-high 45.7% pressure rate, but it was easily their worst game on a down-to-down basis. Buffalo posted a 29.7% success rate, with their next lowest game being 38.8%. Out of 570 total team offensive performances last season, that ranked 550th by success rate.
It was the worst game of his career by both completion percentage (30%) and completion percentage over expectation (18.6%). Ryans and the Houston coaching staff ran Cover 0 at an 11.4% rate in that game, more than double the next highest rate in any game in each of the last two seasons (5.1%). They've run it just 0.6% of the time this season, third-lowest in the league, per Fantasy Points Data Suite. We'll see what Ryans comes up with this time around.
On the other side, Mills has one career start against the Bills back in early October of 2021. They lost 40-0, and Mills had one of the worst performances by a quarterback this century, completing 11 of 21 passes for 87 yards with four picks and three sacks, resulting in a -0.93 EPA/Play and a -4.43 adjusted yards per pass attempt. That's the fifth-lowest AY/A in a game with at least 20 pass attempts since 2000, according to Stathead. In addition, the Texans' 19.1% offensive success rate that day was the 12th-worst of all team offensive performances since 2012.
Mills has played decently well over the past two games and avoided negative plays for the most part. He has a 0.063 EPA/Play and has managed the Texans to two straight wins.
We'll ride with the Bills to narrowly cover the spread here. Allen played looser last week against the Bucs and should be able to do enough against an elite Houston defense to win by a touchdown. Bills 24, Texans 17.
The Picks: Buffalo Bills -5.5 (-122), Under 43.5 (-110)
Thursday Night Football Player Props
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Woody Marks 70+ Rushing Yards (+118)
Marks has taken over as the clear lead back in the Texans' backfield and should be in store for a productive day against a leaky Bills run defense. Buffalo has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (153) and ranks 30th in defensive rush EPA (0.078). Marks has seen both of his season highs in snap share in the past two weeks, with 78.3% in Week 10 and 66.2% in Week 11. The rookie hasn't been the most efficient runner, but has 32 combined carries in those two games, and we'll ride with him in a positive matchup.
Jayden Higgins 40+ Receiving Yards (+142)
Another Texans rookie finds his way on here with the 34th overall pick in this past year's draft. Higgins has emerged as the Texans' No. 2 wide receiver opposite Nico Collins over the past two weeks. Higgins' playing time has remained steady, and his usage has ticked up over the past four weeks, with at least seven targets in three of the past four games. The rookie wideout has posted receiving totals of 34, 42, and 55 in those three games.
Tyrell Shavers Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
With Coleman expected to be inactive again, Shavers is a name to watch in Buffalo's wide receiver room. Shavers has run 41% of the routes over the last two weeks and has been a much-needed big-play threat for Allen and the Bills' offense. He caught four of his five targets for 90 yards and a touchdown last week, including a 43-yard bomb for a touchdown.
Per Next Gen Stats, Shavers ranked first among qualified wide receivers in target separation. The 26-year-old was described by offensive coordinator Joe Brady as the "player of the game" and was "a critical element to our success." We'll look for Shavers to make an impact again on Thursday night.
Thursday Night Football Anytime Touchdown Bets
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (-125)
Allen unloaded for three rushing touchdowns last week against Tampa Bay. The 6-foot-5 behemoth has had more designed carries down near the goal line over the past four weeks, with seven carries and seven of his 10 touchdowns on the season. Over the first six games, Allen had nine carries and three touchdowns inside the 10-yard line. The Texans haven't allowed a rushing touchdown to a quarterback all season, but they haven't faced any quarterback with the rushing ability of Allen. I expect Allen to pick up where he left off last week and find the end zone.
More Picks and Analysis
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