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Should I draft A.J. Brown or Garrett Wilson? Andrew Ball analyzes NFL players with similar values, and tells you who to pick once you're on the clock in your fantasy football draft.
Welcome RotoBallers to our ADP duel comparing A.J. Brown vs. Garrett Wilson for 2023 fantasy football drafts. Average Draft Position, commonly referred to as ADP, represents the average position at which a player is drafted in fantasy football leagues.
ADP is typically derived from data collected from various mock and real drafts conducted by fantasy football enthusiasts. This knowledge can help managers identify "value picks," where players with a higher ADP can be secured at a lower draft position.
Today, we look at two fantasy players being selected incredibly close to each other -- A.J. Brown and Garrett Wilson -- to help you decide which wide receiver you should select when you're on the clock.
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A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
WR8 - ADP: 15th Overall
A.J. Brown is the poster child for finding success with a change of scenery. Following three seasons in the run-heavy Tennessee offense, Brown found his way to the City of Brotherly Love and put together career-highs across the board. His 145 targets, 88 catches, and 1,496 yards were all personal bests, and his 11 touchdowns tied with 2020 for his top mark. Plus, for the second time in his career, he played every game on the schedule. All of that added up to the WR6 finish in PPR formats.
The Eagles ran 1,124 plays during the regular season in 2022. The Titans averaged 1,037 plays per season in the three years that they had Brown on their roster. The tempo provided the ex-Ole Miss Rebel with more opportunities, even though the Eagles' run rate in 2022 was comparable to those Titans teams.
With one of the best rosters in football, Philadelphia benefited from building a lead and coasting through the second halves of games. The now-infamous "Tush Push" and running back Miles Sanders propelled the Eagles to the most rushing touchdowns in NFL single-season history, postseason included.
The Eagles' schedule is significantly tougher in the new year. Philadelphia's opponents have the highest combined 2022 win percentage. Playing even or from behind would force Philadelphia to put the ball in the air more often. DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert will get their target share, and Jalen Hurts will continue to score touchdowns on the ground. But there's no reason to think a healthy A.J. Brown won't repeat his success from 2022.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
WR10 - ADP: 19th Overall
Garrett Wilson is the reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year but fantasy managers are greedy. We want more. That's the potential we're drafting in 2023. With the ragtag group of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White throwing Wilson the football, he put together a stat line of 83 receptions for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns. Now, he has a future Hall-of-Famer tossing him the pigskin, who happens to be very impressed with the young receiver.
“I have so much love and respect for Davante [Adams], I feel like he’s the best receiver in the league, so I don’t say this lightly, but there are definitely traits that this 17 has that that special 17 has as well." - Aaron Rodgers
Sometimes the stats don't tell the story, but your eyes tell you all you need to know. As Pam Beesly once famously said in The Office, "Corporate needs you to find the difference between this picture and this picture."
They're the same picture. Both receivers have some of the best footwork in the league, and it shows after the catch, too. Wilson's broken tackles (10) finished tied for second among wide receivers, behind only YAC king Deebo Samuel.
Aaron Rodgers' lowest completion percentage in a single season since he became a starter is 60.7%. But his career average is just over 65%. Last season, Zach Wilson completed 54.5% of his passes. If we take all of Garrett Wilson's 2022 targets (147) and combine them with Rodgers' career completion percentage, the ex-Buckeye caught 96 passes last year. That would have placed him in the top 10 among receivers.
Fantasy Football Verdict
There's a bit in Family Guy where Peter Griffin is offered a boat and a mystery box. Instead of just taking the boat, he exclaims that "the mystery box could be anything. It could even be a boat!"
A.J. Brown is the boat. We just saw his career year and little (other than running backs and offensive coordinator) has changed with this offense. Garrett Wilson is the mystery box. He could be a luxury yacht but the chances are higher that he's also a boat, or worse, a paddleboard.
Brown should be the first wide receiver selected of the two but you should feel great if you leave your draft with the Wilson consolation prize.
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