RADIO
No. 12 - Ty Johnson (Buffalo Bills) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Johnson enjoyed a big Wild Card showing against the Broncos, headlined by an absurd 24-yard touchdown catch in the back of the end zone. He has at least one catch in six of his last seven games, and he could be the Bills’ clear No. 2 running back if Ray Davis (concussion) doesn’t clear protocol in time for kickoff Sunday.
Perhaps the biggest obstacle in Johnson’s way is a matchup against the Ravens, who represent a tougher task than last week’s Broncos team. Baltimore has allowed the fewest rushing yards and fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2024. Still, Johnson’s increased usage allows him to sneak into the top 12 over Justice Hill, who will be handling No. 2 running back duties for the team on the opposite sideline.
No. 11 - Kareem Hunt (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. Houston Texans
Hunt maintained a surprisingly sizable role down the stretch as the Chiefs looked to keep all members of their backfield — especially Isiah Pacheco — healthy. Heading into the playoffs, head coach Andy Reid hinted at an even split of touches between Hunt and Pacheco. However, he also said that he has been preserving Pacheco over the last few weeks so that he can be fresh and ready to go for the playoffs.
Given how well Pacheco played during the start of the regular season, we’re inclined to believe that he’ll get the first crack at leading Kansas City’s backfield. Hunt will still get involved, though, and he finds his way into the top 12 fantasy running backs for the Divisional Round.
No. 10 - Austin Ekeler (Washington Commanders) at Detroit Lions
Ekeler remained a key pass-catching option against the Buccaneers last week, and he also carried the ball eight times as Brian Robinson Jr. struggled with efficiency. Robinson is still trending toward having more carries than Ekeler, but that could change with one turnover. Plus, Ekeler could lead the team in touches if he gets just a few receptions.
With that said, a split role could make it hard for Ekeler in fantasy football, especially as he takes on the Lions. Detroit has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs in 2024, as well as the seventh-fewest fantasy points.
No. 9 - Brian Robinson Jr. (Washington Commanders) at Detroit Lions
Robinson ranks one spot ahead of Ekeler, but we don’t feel great about it. He has been statistically awful lately, totaling just 110 rushing yards over his last four games. During that span, he has just 2.9 yards per carry and zero total touchdowns.
As long as Robinson continues to lead the Commanders’ backfield in carries, we can feel comfortable enough keeping him ahead of Ekeler. After all, the extra rushing attempts make him a more likely touchdown candidate than Ekeler. Still, we aren’t thrilled about plugging Robinson into fantasy lineups or prop bets.
No. 8 - Isiah Pacheco (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. Houston Texans
Head coach Andy Reid previously said resting Pacheco would allow him to be fresh and ready to go for the playoffs. We don’t know exactly what his usage will be, but those comments suggest that Pacheco should return to the lead-back role he filled early in the season.
Of course, that doesn’t mean Pacheco is the only backfield option, nor does it mean we should vault him to the top of this week’s fantasy rankings. The Chiefs will pass the ball, and they’ll also distribute touches to Hunt, Samaje Perine, and Carson Steele. Even if Pacheco is the preferred running back in Kansas City this weekend, that doesn’t mean we’re rushing to get him in our lineups and parlays.
No. 7 - David Montgomery (Detroit Lions) vs. Washington Commanders
This is the point in the list where the running backs start to get more exciting. Montgomery is returning from a knee injury that sidelined him near the end of the season. All along, he said he’d be back for the Lions’ playoff run, and that’s actually coming to fruition.
Although he will take a backseat to Jahmyr Gibbs, who has been spectacular lately, Montgomery should still carve out a significant role on offense. He’s capable of fighting for tough yards on the ground, and we like his chances to find the end zone after scoring 13 touchdowns in 14 games during the regular season. It also helps that the Lions are facing the Commanders, who allowed the fourth-most rushing yards and 12th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2024.
No. 6 - Joe Mixon (Houston Texans) at Kansas City Chiefs
Mixon had an uncharacteristically poor end to the regular season, but he bounced back in a huge way with 119 yards and one touchdown on Wild Card Weekend. The Texans were able to run the ball so much last week because of their big lead over the Chargers, which they might not be able to replicate against the Chiefs. Still, we like that Mixon is trending upward after a big game.
Matchup-wise, Mixon is taking on a Chiefs defense that surrendered the second-fewest fantasy points and third-fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs in 2024. They also didn’t allow a single receiving touchdown all year long. This is admittedly a very tough matchup for Mixon, but he is one of the NFL’s most talented running backs. A large workload and a couple of breakaway runs could certainly vault him into the top six fantasy running backs this week.
No. 5 - James Cook (Buffalo Bills) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Cook has seven touchdowns over his last five games, and he feasted with 120 rushing yards on 23 carries last week versus the Broncos. The game script could be a little less run-heavy this week against the Ravens, but Cook should remain heavily involved in one of the most exciting matchups this season.
Cook had just 48 yards when he faced the Ravens during the regular season, but he mustered a solid 4.3 yards per carry. His continued efficiency and nose for the end zone in 2024 allow him to rank inside the top five running backs for the Divisional Round. Also working in his favor is the weather, with snow headed for Orchard Park on Sunday. When faced with wintry weather back in Week 13 against the 49ers, Cook exploded for 120 yards (7.6 yards per carry) and a touchdown.
No. 4 - Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams) at Philadelphia Eagles
Williams has seven touchdowns over his last seven games, and he has been a top-18 fantasy running back in each of those contests. With fewer running backs to choose from in the Divisional Round, Williams vaults up to the No. 4 spot.
For Williams and his fantasy managers, we have bad news and good news. The bad news is that the Eagles have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2024, as well as the second-fewest rushing touchdowns. The good news is that one of the Eagles’ run defense’s worst games came against Williams when he rushed for 72 yards (4.5 YPC) and one touchdown against them back in Week 12.
No. 3 - Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions) vs. Washington Commanders
Montgomery returning to the mix makes it a bit harder for Gibbs to finish as this week’s overall RB1, but it won’t stop him from claiming a top-three spot. He has been one of the best running backs in football lately, totaling 396 rushing yards, 205 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns over his last four contests.
Gibbs found the end zone 20 times through 17 regular-season games, so we like his odds to find the end zone in any given week. However, his chances are maximized this Saturday against the Commanders, who surrendered the fifth-most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs during the 2024 regular season.
No. 2 - Derrick Henry (Baltimore Ravens) at Buffalo Bills
You could make a case for Henry to be No. 1, especially if the Ravens adopt a run-heavy approach in snowy Orchard Park. However, his nearly non-existent receiving role will keep him at No. 2 and away from Saquon Barkley’s throne for at least one more week.
Henry is still due for another big game as he takes on the Bills, who have surrendered the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2024. While many of those points came on receptions, Buffalo still ranked near the middle of the league in terms of rushing yards allowed this year. Plus, we can’t forget what happened when Henry faced the Bills back in Week 4. He had 209 total yards and two touchdowns in that contest, and he also posted a season-high three receptions. It was the only time he ranked as the overall RB1 in a single week this season.
No. 1 - Saquon Barkley (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Eagles rested Barkley and many other starters during their season finale, which means it’s been roughly three weeks since his last game action. We expect him to pick up right where he left off: terrorizing opposing defenses with his pure talent and athleticism.
If Barkley’s ranking as the overall RB1 in 2024 isn’t enough to convince you he’s the top option this week, let’s reflect on what he did against the Rams in Week 12. During that primetime contest, he sliced up the Rams’ run defense for 255 rushing yards, 47 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
