RADIO
Hello RotoBallers, I am back with my round 4 Showdown article for the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am this week. Weather has been less than ideal over the first three rounds, with high winds and occasional rain testing most of the PGA Tour's top talent and their amateur playing partners. Sepp Straka holds a one-stroke lead over Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry with one round left.
The two-course rotation of Spyglass and Pebble requires solid play off the tee (only one player inside the top five ranks outside the top 20 in strokes gained off the tee) and a sound wedge game to keep giving players chances to make birdies. Making putts is obviously crucial as well, but on Poa Annua's notoriously bumpy surfaces, missed putts are just part of it. This is all about winning the law of averages here.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round is also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Like the first three days, the wind will be prevalent again on Sunday. Given the late arrival of higher wind speeds, there is more probability of someone posting that super-low number earlier in the day. However, given the firepower near the top of the board, it will be easy to stay inside the top 25 for most picks.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. A great starting point is to take guys with a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: It seems that this week's weather has played into the hands of the European players, and Rory McIlroy is at the forefront, sitting in T2 with good friend Shane Lowry. Other than a squirrely back-nine on Friday that saw him bogey four of his last seven holes, he has played near-perfect golf.
It has been three days of magic with the driver as he leads the field in strokes gained off the tee (+1.95), but the more interesting part of this equation is that he ranks 12th in strokes gained putting (+0.85) thanks in particular to his performance on the greens at Pebble.
Other Options: Scottie Scheffler
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Sticking strong with the lads across the pond, Tommy Fleetwood has found solid footing with scores of 70-67 at Pebble Beach after a slow start at Spyglass on Thursday. Statistically, he has performed much better in putting and approach play in the two rounds at Pebble than his lone round at the other, and with any luck, it will remain that way tomorrow.
He finds himself eight shots back to start the final round, which is likely too far back to have a realistic chance of catching the leaders. But, if there is one thing that Fleetwood is good at, it's giving us false hope.
Back to work @PGATOUR 💪🏻 pic.twitter.com/Zz7uTMPwXd
— Tommy Fleetwood (@TommyFleetwood1) January 28, 2025
Other Options: Sungjae Im, Sam Burns
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Just as he did a couple of weeks ago at the AmEx, Sepp Straka finds himself with the lead going into the final day. The biggest difference between then and now is the margin of his lead and who is chasing him. He never showed any real panic at the Stadium Course, though a four-shot lead is a more comfortable position than the one he's currently in, with many good players nipping at his heels.
From a tee-to-green perspective, you can't ask for much more than Straka has done through three rounds as he ranks third in strokes gained off the tee (+0.98), on approach (+1.66), and around the green (+1.06).
He hasn't performed on the greens as well as in the California desert, but if the rest of his game stays this sharp, the field will have their hands full trying to stop him from capturing his second consecutive victory.
Other Options: Taylor Pendrith, Jason Day, Shane Lowry
$7,000+
Favorite Play: When it comes to finding the steadiest player through the first three rounds, it doesn't get much better than Sam Stevens. The 28-year-old has only made one bogey all week, which came in the first round. He ranks fifth in the field in strokes gained off the tee (+0.95) and 16th in strokes gained putting (+0.72).
Sam Stevens found the water on 18 when he was in 2nd.
Proceeds to go full flop spinner and almost jars it off the flagstick. Saves par.
Baller. pic.twitter.com/3uoAKNjPEI
— Fore Play (@ForePlayPod) January 25, 2025
Other Options: Robert Macintyre, Cam Davis
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Justin Rose seems like an odd name this far down the list, especially at a venue where he's found real success, including a win in 2023. The 44-year-old has another chance this week as he sits in T4 to start the final day. Ranking seventh in the field in strokes gained tee to green (+1.67), "Rosey" is doing everything well enough to make things interesting down the stretch.
Other Options: Chrisstiaan Bezuidenhout, Jake Knapp
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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