RADIO
The 2025 PGA Tour season has rolled into La Quinta, California, for the American Express at PGA West this week. Play through the first three rounds has been hot and heavy, with low scores being posted in abundance. Heading into the final round, it is Sepp Straka's tournament to lose as the 31-year-old has played 54 holes of mistake-free golf and currently holds a four-shot lead.
As was discussed ad nauseam coming into the week, making as many birdies as humanly possible is the ultimate weapon. Straka currently leads the field in birdies gained, and after posting the lowest round at the Stadium Course during the three-course rotation, catching him tomorrow will be next to impossible without a total collapse. Even still, having guys in your lineup struggling to break 70 won't do a lineup any favors, so go for broke.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round is also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Taking your foot off the gas pedal, even for one round, basically results in a missed opportunity this week. Perfect conditions without threat from Mother Nature's elements have brought us exceptionally low scores.
However, an important note is that the Stadium Course has averaged nearly three strokes higher than the other two layouts. So, while low scores should be expected tomorrow, avoiding the ones who fall prey to this more difficult track will be crucial.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. A great starting point is to take guys with a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: With a couple of the bigger names struggling this week, Justin Thomas nearly wins this honor by default. Although, his lone competitor (Patrick Cantlay) is not a bad option. When it gets down to the nitty-gritty, Thomas has the best history at the Stadium Course of anyone in the field (+4.48 true strokes gained), and when you need a home run, the best strategy is to use the hottest bat.
Other Options: Patrick Cantlay
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Max Greyserman has continued to improve over the three days in La Quinta, as he will return to the Stadium Course tomorrow having posted an -7 under, 65 there in round three.
The putter seems to have taken a few holes to heat up, as he leads the field in strokes gained on approach (+5.34), which is a bit inflated given his hole-out on hole No. 10 in round 3. Still, it's hard to argue with the fact he's one of the hottest players going into the final day.
Max Greyserman sensational hole-out EAGLE from 156! 🎯🦅
📺 Golf Channel | @TheAmexGolf pic.twitter.com/3MNtj0ltc0
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) January 18, 2025
Other Options: Sam Burns, Will Zalatoris
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Given the extreme ownership that will inevitably follow the man leading by four, Jason Day is a prime candidate for someone who should play with reckless abandon tomorrow. The Australian ranks top-10 in strokes gained on approach (+1.668) and putting (+1.159) in the one-round sample at the Stadium Course this week, and if anyone has the pedigree to put the pressure on tomorrow, it's him.
Other Options: Sepp Straka, Si Woo Kim, Nick Taylor,
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Daniel Berger continues the climb back to the elite level of play we had come to expect from him before injuries sidetracked his career, and he is doing it this week at a place where he's had past success. Ranking eighth in strokes gained on approach (+2.82) and third in bogey avoidance, Berger is in a good position to run down a top-5 finish tomorrow.
🚨🍻⛳️ At the 2021 Ryder Cup, Justin Thomas and Daniel Berger slammed beers on the tee box pic.twitter.com/4nhW86w8Ph
— NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) August 31, 2023
Other Options: Cameron Davis, Carson Young, Sam Stevens
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Frankie Capan has already succeeded this week in the grand scheme of things. The PGA Tour rookie made his second consecutive cut of the young season and finds himself in the thick of it, starting the final round.
He struggled on Thursday's opening round with a -3 under, 69 that included a double and two bogeys on the card. However, he's since caught fire and ranks third in the field in birdies gained and ninth in strokes gained on approach (+2.62). All while posting a solid score of 68 at the Stadium Course in the process.
Given his performance on the Korn Ferry Tour last year in the final rounds, Capan should be a fine base from which to build lineups.
Other Options: Jeremy Paul
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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