RADIO
The PGA Tour Fall Series rolls on after the festivities of the Presidents Cup. This week, we're in Jackson, Mississippi at The Country Club of Jackson for the Sanderson Farms Championship. Keith Mitchell will go into the final round with a one-shot lead after posting a mistake-free 65 on Saturday.
Managing your way around seems to be the biggest trick at this John Fought design, considering strokes gained tee to green is the only metric that somewhat correlates with most of the guys inside the top 10. So, picking guys trending upward with any part of their game is a right-enough decision to consider. Strong play off the tee is perhaps the one area to pay the closest attention to, but it certainly isn't the only route to success.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but, roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round is also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Conditions have been super-gettable all week at The Country Club of Jackson, though it's worth noting that the lowest scores have come from the mid-morning tee times. Players going off in that sweet spot can get later in the round before wind becomes a factor.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset to have for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. Taking guys who have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds is a great starting point.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Keith Mitchell caught fire on Friday en route to an eight-under, 64 and followed it up with a bogey-free 65 on Saturday. He ranks second on the week in strokes gained putting (+2.42) and has put up a top-five performance on approach in Saturday's round.
Having made only one bogey in the last 36 holes, Killa Keith will look to hold off the field for his second PGA Tour victory.
Cashmere Keith from downtown!@K_M_Mitchell drains a 37-foot birdie for the solo lead @Sanderson_Champ. pic.twitter.com/9rq4UlGShK
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 5, 2024
Other Options: Nick Dunlap
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Stephan Jaeger has posted consistent rounds of 68-67-68 over the first three days thanks to strong play on the greens and off the tee, as he ranks ninth in strokes gained putting (+1.65) and 12th in strokes gained off the tee (+0.71).
The iron play has been a sore spot all year for the German golfer, but at an event where only one player within five shots of the lead is ranked inside the top 10 in strokes gained on approach, it isn't as big of a deal as it would be at other venues.
Other Options: Eric Cole
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Ryan Fox has played well over the first three rounds as he sits in a tie for seventh at -15 under par. Slow starts are ultimately why he finds himself five back of the lead, but his game, minus the short game, is reason to believe he could improve his position tomorrow.
He is currently ranked 10th in strokes gained putting (+1.65), 16th in strokes gained on approach (+1.04), and 17th in strokes gained off the tee (+0.63).
Other Options: Beau Hossler, Patton Kizzire, Andrew Novak, Daniel Berger
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Gary Woodland is putting on a stripe show from tee to green as he leads the field in that particular strokes gained metric (+3.25). Taking a deeper dive into the stats, he ranks fourth in strokes gained off the tee (+1.06) and eighth in strokes gained on approach (+1.51).
It's been a long time since Gary Woodland felt like a confident play, but everything is there for him to produce a solid performance if he can get some putts to fall tomorrow.
Gary Woodland hits a phenomenal approach from 136 yards to four inches on 18. 🎯🔥
📺 Golf Channel | @Sanderson_Champ pic.twitter.com/QTuMP97Orx
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) October 5, 2024
Other Options: Henrick Norlander, Rickie Fowler, Lucas Glover, Matti Schmid
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Wesley Bryan had played a strong 45 holes before struggling on the back-9 on Saturday, mostly due to faulty putting. However, he has been serviceable tee to green with a highlight of 21st in strokes gained off the tee (+0.58). If you must dive this low in the player pool, he seems like a relatively safe play.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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