RADIO
Todd McGill's Round 4 PGA DFS showdown slate picks for the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge. His top in-tournament DFS lineup picks and top plays for DraftKings and FanDuel.
One week removed from Scottie Scheffler's dominant win at Quail Hollow, the PGA Tour is in Fort Worth this week for the Charles Schwab Challenge. Through three rounds, we have what feels like a two-horse race between Ben Griffin and Matti Schmid at -13 under par, as the next closest is four back and will need some help to catch up. However, a lot can happen on Sunday, especially when talking about unproven players trying to close out victories.
Approach play has been king over the first three days, as guys not averaging at least +0.50 strokes with the irons are virtually nonexistent in the top 20 on the leaderboard. Windy conditions mixed with tiny landing spots will generally produce that sort of strategy, and those combining that with good positions off the tee are finding consistent success day over day despite not performing as strongly on and around the green.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round are also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Texas golf usually gets Texas weather, and this week in Fort Worth is no different. Conditions have been hot and blustery at times, but that hasn't stopped players from going low. The tricky part of tomorrow is that Colonial Country Club's more difficult nature creates a tight leaderboard and can allow players to make huge jumps up the leaderboard with a solid round. However, that also creates opportunities to look further down the board for that super-low round.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. A great starting point is to take guys who have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Hideki Matsuyama took some time to get going with his typically strong iron play, but found a groove on Saturday to gain +1.53 in strokes gained on approach. His constant tinkering with putters always gives reason to have concern about him in four-round contests, but Colonial doesn't have the trickiest putting surfaces, and the 33-year-old has gained strokes on the green all three days. He's a prime candidate to throw a low one out there tomorrow.
Other Options: There isn't much else to get excited about in this range.
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Akshay Bhatia is getting it done from everywhere at Colonial Country Club, and I mean everywhere. Accuracy off the tee here is part of the typical recipe for success, but the 23-year-old is showing there are other ways to get it done, as he's barely hit half of his fairways through three rounds.
Still, Bhatia ranks highly across the board, minus around the greens. Luckily, if he hopes to make a charge tomorrow, that part of his game shouldn't be much of a factor.
Akshay Bhatia with a big birdie putt on No.16 🐦 pic.twitter.com/kiS2MMIuUn
— Golf on CBS ⛳ (@GolfonCBS) May 24, 2025
Other Options: Brian Harman, Ben Griffin
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Andrew Novak is hoping his streaky play with the irons doesn't turn heel on Sunday, as the 30-year-old finds himself in the mix in another PGA Tour event. He was third in strokes gained on approach (+2.88) in Thursday's round, but has cooled off drastically over the two rounds since then in that area. However, other parts of his game are helping to keep things going, as he ranks third for the week in strokes gained tee to green (+2.25).
Other Options: Keith Mitchell, Harry Hall, Bud Cauley
$7,000+
Favorite Play: It's undoubtedly been a tough year for Kurt Kitayama. However, he could notch a second top 5 finish in three starts with a solid round tomorrow, as he sits in T7 entering the day. It was a slow start to the week, but after posting back-to-back 67s and only carding three bogeys over that stretch, he's in a good place to finish strong.
Kurt Kitayama sinks it for birdie from off the 8th green. 👀
📺 Golf Channel 📱 NBC Sports app | @ShrinersOpen pic.twitter.com/JseH5GYcj4
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) October 20, 2024
Other Options: Eric Cole, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Ricky Castillo
$6,000+
Favorite Play: It's hard not to be intrigued by the consistency that Kris Ventura has had over the first three days at Colonial Country Club. The 30-year-old is plugging right along this week, and while it isn't massive gains, he's green across the stat sheet. If he can manage a similar round tomorrow, he'll make for an excellent starting place for lineup builds.
Other Options: Karl Vilips, Nick Hardy
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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