RADIO
Quail Hollow saw Tommy Fleetwood shoot six under par and it also saw a dozen golfers shoot six over par or worse. Maybe they can rename it the Carolina Tight Rope with risk and reward seemingly on display on every hole. Fleetwood went bogey-free and leads a pack of five golfers who sit at -5 in T2. Xander Schauffele is one of those golfers and a shot behind him sits his buddy, Patrick Cantlay, along with budding star Sahith Theegala. Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas both shot -3 in the opening round, with more big names likely ascending to the top of the leaderboard as the weekend unfolds.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric. More often than not, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player. Every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Round 2 Analysis
Round 2 Best Scores
Round 2 Ownership
Going into Round 2, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in Round 2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday, b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday, b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
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Round 2 Strategy
There really doesn't appear to be that much of a weather advantage tomorrow.
What does appear to be an edge around this course is the ability to gain ball striking. 14 of the top 15 golfers on the leaderboard gained over two strokes on Approach + Off The Tee, with the majority of the heavy lifting coming from the approach stats.
Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 2. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, and ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the PGA TOUR SHOWDOWN $500 HYBRID [3 ENTRY MAX], which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Patrick Cantlay: When almost each of the four key showdown metrics is 2+, we are going to play the guy even at 25% ownership. He makes birdies at an elite rate, gains over two strokes in Round 2, graded out fantastically pre-tournament, and his weighted good shot rate is one of the best in the field.
$9,000+
Jordan Spieth and Collin Morikawa: Both of these superstars shot over par today and will come in at single digits ownership. You only have to play 15-20% of them to get double the field. As a result of that, we will have five options this week in the $9k range.
Cameron Young shot level par in Round 1 and did so while butchering the scoreable Par 5s and driveable Par 4s. If he can get that short game back on track tomorrow, watch out.
Max Homa and Justin Thomas shot -1 and -3, respectively. After leaving both out of my weeklong player pool, I am ready to go to them in showdown for the rest of the week. Thomas is one of the premier birdie makers when he is firing on all cylinders, and Homa has one of the best Round 2 scoring averages in the field.
$8,000+
Tyrell Hatton grades close to a 2 for good shots on approach, while his Round 2 scoring is also one of his more likely days to have himself a good day on the course. He sits in T25 at -2 and is one of the better leverage plays on the board when combining price, power rating, and projected ownership.
Tom Kim doesn't grade out that well from 150+ in the rough. That is okay, as he is usually one of the more accurate drivers of the ball, leaning on that exceptional iron play from the fairway. Kim parred all three of the Par 5s today and shot a bogey-free 67 (-4). If he gets a few better breaks around the greens, he should continue to play well tomorrow.
$7,000+
Akshay Bhatia has gained over five strokes in three of his last six Friday (R2) rounds. It is an incredibly small sample size, but after a lackluster 1 over par today, we are willing to gamble on a 50/50 shot that he has an insane Round 2 tomorrow afternoon.
Brian Harman, Shane Lowry Taylor Montgomery, and Byeong Hun An will all be rather low-owned tomorrow, flirting with 1% ownership after some rather disappointing rounds today. Lowry has the fourth-best R2 scoring average of our player pool and is priced at $7,900, while Montgomery has the fourth-best BoB% rate of our pool. Byeong Hun An is a little volatile but may make a charge in R2 with some impressive Friday performances in the past.
Stephan Jaegar and Si Woo Kim will be a little more owned because they both shot under par and were either popular in R1 (Jaeger 8%) or played really well today (Si Woo -3). The model seems to really like Si Woo as a value at $7,400 while Jaeger has an insane upside when he is on fire.
$6,000+
Robby Shelton and Nick Hardy both shot level par today and if either had the other's ball striking or around the green game, they would be incredible golfers. Shelton enjoys an impressive +1.18 R2 scoring average despite being priced at $6,900 while Hardy has the second-best approach score of the player pool behind Cameron Young.
Nate Lashley is usually a really good iron player and today he proved that on route to a -3 round. He is $6,800 and grades out as the 37th-best golfer for the R2 showdown.
Taylor Pendrith and Trey Mullinax both shot -1 in R1 and Pendrith tends to thrive in R2 (+1.24 avg) while Mullinax is one of the better iron players of our choices. They are $6,700 and $6,500, respectively, and provide some great leverage at a projected ownership of roughly 2% for R2.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership or points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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