RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for a second season. In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

It was an extraordinary event for me last weekend at the Waste Management Open, as Webb Simpson was able to earn a cool 1.314 million dollars to get me back into contention in the RotoBaller OAD contest. And while a triumph should never go unnoticed, I think the biggest takeaway from last week was the sheer consistency across the board. All three of our selections finished inside the top-16, and perhaps even more impressively, neither Joe nor Josh have had a finish outside that range during the first four events of the year.

To put the teams' early-season start into perspective, we have combined to make all 12 cuts, Joe hasn't had a golfer post a result worse than a top-10 and our leader Josh is reading the board so well that he wanted the rules changed for one week so he could take Simpson for a second time last weekend in Phoenix. The fireworks are just getting started this season, so let's see who the guys will be taking at Pebble Beach for the fifth event of the year.

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For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

One and Done Selections

Joe Nicely - Jason Day

Alternate - Brandt Snedeker

Yearly Earnings - $970,518

Yearly Cuts Made - 4/4

 

Spencer Aguiar - Patrick Cantlay

Alternate - Kevin Na

There are a few ways we can go this weekend. The field is EXTREMELY WEAK, which might add some merit to going off the board with our selection and grabbing Branden Grace, Rafa Cabrera Bello or Kevin Na, but I prefer going a different route that still might make me contrarian.

I don't have Paul Casey at my disposal anymore, but do think he makes sense at Pebble Beach if you can get around his high ownership percentage. Dustin Johnson is intriguing given his course history, but I prefer the idea of saving the big-hitting American for somewhere else down the line. And then we have Jason Day, who is going to be one of the most, if not the most popular selections, but there is a heightened volatility level around the Aussie that makes him a boom-or-bust choice.

I wouldn't necessarily talk you out of anyone I have mentioned, but I have a feeling that Patrick Cantlay is going to go wildly unnoticed because people are going to want to save him for another event. Statistically, Cantlay grades out first for me in both my short and long-term models, and it doesn't hurt that the American is the second favorite at 12/1 - a number that he won't rival very often this season. Cantlay wants to play six-hour rounds as it is, so he should be right at home for the long, grueling days of a Pro-Am.

Yearly Earnings - $1,427,739

Yearly Cuts Made - 4/4

 

Josh Bennett - Jason Day

Alternate - Paul Casey

I’ve been pretty confident in my picks so far this year, including last week when I picked Webb and it was disallowed because it was against the rules to pick someone two times. I’m headed off the rails a little bit this week; I like to roll with guys that are in good form and statistically fit courses, but Day at this point in the season (and last season, really) doesn’t necessarily fit the criteria I look for. However, there are a couple things going on in his personal golf world that I think will benefit him this week.

He has great history in this tournament, with three top five finishes in his last three and a handful of other great finishes prior to that. If there’s something to get someone back on track in their golf game, getting to play a tournament they’ve had a lot of success at is a great start. When Day is at his best, it’s his elite short game and putting that kept him in contention every week (a lot like Spieth), and his around-the-green stats so far through 2020 are encouraging. His putting is about average so far, but he’s the top overall in Shots Gained: Around-the-Green this season which I think is a good sign. He’ll be successful this week if he can use that short game to his advantage.

There’s tons of talk in the golf world about Spieth and his world ranking, but Day’s spot on that list is putting him in question for the big time events that require you to be in the top 50 as well, and this is probably my main reason for picking him. I typically don’t buy into the “he’s motivated” hype from week to week because I think every guy in every field should be motivated, but I think this week is a little different. The pro-am nature of the event will throw a lot of guys off, especially with the pace of play. It also likely has a little more “fun” atmosphere to it that might not lock everyone in to their top games. Day has talked before about wanting to be #1 again and I think getting himself some cushion inside the top 50 is important to him and he’ll come out firing in an event he’s done very well at in the past. There’s been a lot of Aussie golfers with success so far this year and I think Day adds his name to that list this week. – Josh Bennett

Yearly Earnings - $1,532,587

Yearly Cuts Made - 4/4

 

Running Totals

	Joe Nicely	Spencer Aguiar	Josh Bennett
Sony Open	Webb Simpson $455,400	Abraham Ancer $27,390	Webb Simpson $455,400
American Express	Sungjae Im $162,475	Paul Casey $63,399	Sungjae Im $162,475
Farmers Insurance	Tiger Woods $181,875	Hideki Matsuyama $22,950	Jon Rahm $817,500
Waste Management	Jon Rahm $170,768	Webb Simpson $1,314,000	Hideki Matsuyama $97,212

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