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In this weekly column, we’ll be featuring rookies who were recently called up or who had the most notable performances in the past week.
At the start of this week, we highlighted some of the key rookie performances during the opening weekend, including the hot start of Luis Robert and the MLB debut of Brady Singer. You can find that article here.
Generally, we’re going to avoid discussing the same players week after week. Otherwise, it might just end up being the Luis Robert and Nate Pearson show. For this week’s edition, we’ll try to contain our love for the Blue Jays flame-throwing prospect - emphasis on try.
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Nate Pearson (SP, TOR)
The highly-anticipated debut of Pearson came on Wednesday against the Washington Nationals and it certainly didn’t disappoint. Pearson gave up just two hits and two walks with no runs over five innings, averaging a strikeout per inning.
Pearson heavily leaned on two pitches in the start, his four-seamer and his slider. Both pitches appear well on their way to being dominant pitches in the big leagues. He averaged 96 miles per hour on his four-seamer and saw some significant movement on it with an average spin rate of 2,420 revolutions per minute and an average vertical drop of 11.2 inches, which is 2.3 inches more than league average.
His slider was even more impressive, inducing a whiff rate of 47.1% with an average vertical drop of 40.1 inches, which is 3.1 inches more than league average.
Pearson is coming off a remarkable year in the minor leagues where he posted a 2.30 ERA and a 0.885 WHIP with 119 strikeouts over 101.2 innings. He is about as enticing as a pitching prospect as you’re likely to find, checking just about every box possible.
Pearson is currently owned in about 60% of fantasy leagues. That number absolutely needs to shoot up. While the Blue Jays certainly won’t extend him too far in his starts, all he should need to justify a roster spot is five or six innings per start. He’ll provide significant help in strikeouts and ratios and should even earn a decent amount of wins with an improving Blue Jays offense supporting him.
Kyle Lewis (OF, SEA)
No doubt one of the most talked-about rookies in the league so far, Seattle Mariners outfielder Kyle Lewis has been on an absolute tear to start his first full big-league season. Through his first seven games, Lewis is slashing .448/.500/.655 with two home runs, seven RBI and five runs. He’s been primarily hitting third in the Mariners order and there’s little reason to think that will change anytime soon.
But how legit exactly is Lewis’s scorching start?
In his past three years in the minor leagues, Lewis didn’t offer much of a preview of the power he’s shown so far in 2020. His highest season-ending OPS in the minors the past three years was .741 in 2019. Over 122 games in Double-A in 2019, he hit 11 home runs and 25 doubles, tallying 62 RBI and 61 runs.
We’ve certainly seen a trend in the past decade or less of prospects exhibiting more power in the majors than they did in the minors, with players like Francisco Lindor and Fernando Tatis Jr. coming to mind. However, a key difference with Lewis is his age. Lindor and Tatis, for example, were 21 and 20, respectively, when they began their MLB careers. Lewis, meanwhile, just recently turned 25. So he was 23 and 24 back in 2019 when he failed to show a great deal of power potential in the minors. Maybe he’s developed slower than the aforementioned stars, but the more likely scenario might be that this past week is more of an anomaly than anything.
Another alarming metric for Lewis is of course his strikeouts. Unlike his power surge, the strikeouts were something that we could see coming from his minor league career. He struck out 152 times in his 122 at-bats at Double-A last year. Over his first seven games this year, he had already struck out 12 times.
Lewis is rostered in about 70% of fantasy leagues right now. Because of the shortened season we’re dealing with, there’s no problem with that number and there’s even an argument it should be higher for now. Fantasy owners can take a chance on him and ride him out to see how long this hot streak lasts. Owners in dynasty leagues, however, would be wise to try and sell high if there’s someone buying.
Cristian Javier (SP, HOU)
Houston Astros pitcher Cristian Javier blew away expectations in his first start this past Wednesday against a tough Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. Javier pitched 5 2/3 innings and allowed just two hits, one walk and one earned run while striking out eight. He limited the Dodgers to a 14.3% hard-hit rate and an exit velocity of just 82.1, both clips ranking amongst the 88th percentile in the league thus far.
Javier’s success this past week certainly didn’t come out of nowhere, as he dominated in the minors last season, spending the bulk of the year at Double-A. Over 113 2/3 innings last year, Javier posted a 1.74 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with 170 strikeouts.
Despite his remarkable minor league track record, Javier has floated under the radar for the most part, potentially due to the surplus of pitching the Astros have or the presence of the younger, more highly-regarded Astros pitching prospect Forrest Whitley.
Regardless, Javier is certainly on our radars now.
He’s currently owned in under 20% of fantasy leagues, which is a shockingly low number considering how impressive his first start was. That number should shoot up over the weekend assuming the Astros don’t take him out of the rotation, which does bring us to the primary concern regarding Javier. His rotation spot is very much a question. The opportunity certainly seems to be there with Justin Verlander sidelined for at least a month or so, but manager Dusty Baker hasn’t fully commit to Javier’s spot in the rotation quite yet.
Overall, Javier certainly should be added in all deep leagues and many shallow leagues as well as a speculative add just for how valuable he could be if he continues to stay in the rotation going forward.
Edward Olivares (OF, SD)
In his first stint in the major leagues, San Diego Padres 24-year-old outfielder Edward Olivares has seen some significant playing time. He started on Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday this past week and closed out Tuesday’s game as well. He’s been hitting at the bottom of the lineup, but his production has been decent. Over 16 plate appearances, he’s slashing .286/.375/.357 with two runs and two RBI.
Olivares spent the entirety of the 2019 season at Double-A, hitting .283 with an .801 OPS, tallying 18 home runs, 77 RBI, 85 runs and 35 stolen bases over 127 games. He showed solid plate discipline in the minors, striking out just 98 times last year while walking 43 times.
He’s almost universally un-owned in fantasy leagues right now and he can certainly stay that way in redraft leagues until we see a bit more from him. In dynasty leagues, however, he’s worth further consideration. He could certainly turn into a dependable source of batting average and stolen bases with low strikeouts.
James Karinchak (RP, CLE)
On Thursday, Cleveland Indians rookie relief pitcher James Karinchak closed out Shane Bieber’s gem against the Minnesota Twins to earn his first career save. Karinchak has looked strong in his four innings of work so far this year, allowing no hits, two walks and no runs while recording five strikeouts.
Karinchak was a strikeout extraordinaire in the minor leagues. Last year, he struck out a whopping 74 batters over just 30 1/3 innings, splitting his time between multiple levels including Triple-A. He also briefly pitched in the majors last year, striking out eight batters over 5 1/3 innings while allowing just one earned run.
Indians closer Brad Hand has struggled out of the gate. He barely clung to his second save on Tuesday, then got shelled by the White Sox the following day, allowing four runs while recording just one out.
Karinchak can be left on waivers in all leagues at this point, but definitely keep an eye on him. If Hand continues to struggle and the team looks to Karinchak for future saves, he could be an extremely valuable fantasy asset.
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