Quentin Johnston NFL Rookie Profile - Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook

May 9, 2023

Phil Clark's fantasy football rookie analysis for wide receiver Quentin Johnston. Is this NFL rookie wide receiver a 2023 fantasy football draft sleeper?

The fervor for members of this year’s rookie class has ignited enormous interest within the fantasy community, as managers and analysts have immersed themselves in a detailed evaluation of these first-year players. This has involved an assessment of strengths and weaknesses, a review of achievements at the collegiate level, and the deployment of analytics toward determining the projected outlook for each rookie. However, the galvanizing impact of this process remained incomplete until the destinations for these first-year players were determined during the NFL Draft.

This provided an immediate conclusion to all uncertainty regarding their landing spots, which has made a monumental impact on the fantasy landscape. The results of this year’s draft have also been essential in finalizing the restructured outlooks for this year’s class of wide receivers. That includes newcomer Quentin Johnston, who was the second receiver to be selected during the draft process. Johnston delivers an intriguing fusion of size, and athleticism that is unmatched by the other rookies who attained Round 1 draft capital.

Johnston also performs with sufficient speed and explosiveness and will provide Justin Herbert with a massive target. He can also utilize his long strides and agility to stretch opposing defenses, and steadily develop into a dependable vertical weapon. He has emerged in a landing spot that currently contains significant competition for targets during 2023, but his progression into a reliable point producer for fantasy managers will be accelerated if he can refine his strengths and improve his ability to capitalize on them.

Quentin Johnston Rookie Profile

Team: Los Angeles Chargers 

College: TCU

Height: 6’4”

Weight 215

Age: 21 (9/6/2001)

Arm Length: 33 5/8”

Hand Size: 9.5/8”

Wingspan: 81 5/8”

2022 NFL Draft: Round 1, Pick: 21

Quentin Johnston's Path To A First-Round Selection  

Johnston appeared to be entrenched among the select group of wide receivers who were destined to become first-round draft selections as we entered the offseason, due to his enticing collection of strengths. However, questions surrounding his ability to achieve separation and prevail in congested catch situations also surfaced before the NFL Draft, which contributed to his omission from the list of 17 newcomers who were invited to the draft. However, the emerging doubt regarding Johnston's prospects of being selected in Round 1 was unfounded, as the Chargers seized him with the 21st overall pick.

2020 WR Quentin Johnston (6’4” 180) is a field stretcher displaying gd long spd to get past defenders & get downfield quickly. Shows gd ball tracking skills & contorts himself to the ball showing solid awareness & strong hands. Limited route tree & separation relies on AA #devy pic.twitter.com/J5303Q5qXu

— Jason DiRienzo (@allpurposescout) June 8, 2019

Johnston gained notoriety for his accomplishments in football and basketball at Temple (Texas) High School, while also participating in the high jump, long jump, and triple jump for the Wildcats.

Truly blessed to receive another offer from TCU#GGTG⚫🔮 @TCUFootball pic.twitter.com/X5n3EKRmfQ

— Quentin Johnston (@MrJohnston____) October 10, 2018

He became the 14th-ranked wide receiver from his 2020 recruiting class following his performances on the football field. This prompted interest from a list of schools at the collegiate level, including Texas, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Houston, and Tulsa. Johnston initially committed to the Longhorns in August of 2019, but decommitted four months later and signed a letter of intent with TCU.

Quentin Johnston's Rise To Prominence At TCU 

Johnston collected 115 of his 201 targets during three seasons at TCU while generating 2,190 yards, and accumulating 14 touchdowns. That includes his results as a freshman in 2020 when Johnston was targeted 44 times, accumulated 22 receptions, and averaged 22.1 yards per reception – which exceeded the previous Big 12 record for a true freshman. He also assembled 487 receiving yards, including 247 yards during his final two games of the season. That vaulted him among a select group of just three true (FBS) freshmen who eclipsed 100+ during back-to-back matchups.

Johnston was sidelined during three matchups as a sophomore (2021) but still collected 33 of his 61 targets and generated six touchdowns. He also vaulted into the team lead in receiving yards (634) and averaged 19.2 yards per reception. Johnston also became a First-Team Big 12 selection after producing 95+ yards during four of his eight matchups. That included a season-high 185 yards against Oklahoma, along with his 142-yard performance versus Baylor.

T-C-U! Touchdown Quentin Johnston 🔥#Big12FB x @TCUFootball

📺 FS1 | @CFBONFOXpic.twitter.com/oYirreA8M8

— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) October 23, 2022

Johnston flourished while performing as the X receiver during his junior year (2022) while operating in a nuanced version of the air raid offense. TCU’s attack flourished under first-year head coach Sonny Dykes and offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, as the Horned Frogs averaged 455 yards per game – which was comprised of 261.7 per game through the air, and 193.7 per game on the ground. TCU also rose to ninth overall in scoring (38.8 points per game), which represented an increase of over 10 points per game when contrasted with the Horned Frogs' average in 2021 (28.7).

Johnston contended with an ankle issue that sidelined him during two contests, but still collected a career-high 96 targets and captured 60 receptions, including a career-best 14 catches against Kansas.  He also surpassed 1,000 yards, (1,069) while eclipsing 139+ during four of his matchups. His yardage total placed him third overall among Big 12 wide receivers, while he also finished third with an average of 17.8 yards per reception and placed fourth in receptions.

Max Duggan to Quentin Johnston on a shallow screen for a touchdown. pic.twitter.com/DEQVnP56tQ

— parker, somewhat v e r i f i e d (@statsowar) January 1, 2023

Johnston earned First-Team All-Big 12 honors for a second consecutive season and was named the Offensive Most Valuable Player during TCU’s College Football Playoff Semifinal matchup versus Michigan after capturing six of his nine targets and stockpiling 163 yards. He was also a semifinalist for the prestigious Biletnikoff Award.

Looks like miscommunication between (I believe) Jerrin Thompson and Terrance Brooks leads to Quentin Johnston’s easiest touchdown catch of the year.

Roughing the punter penalty costs Texas and the Horns will have to score 14 points to tie with less than 13 minutes left pic.twitter.com/xSUrTas8CZ

— Hudson Standish (@247Hudson) November 13, 2022

Johnston ultimately averaged 7.7 yards after the catch during his career along with 43 broken tackles according to PFF. He also paced all wide receivers in missed tackles forced per reception (0.40), while also securing the fourth-highest average in yards per reception (17.9) versus zone coverage.  He was also first in yards after the catch per reception (14.0), and second in yards per route run (3.31) according to PFF.

.@TCUFootball - Quentin Johnston’s 24-yard touchdown 🔥#Big12FB x @OldTrapper x @TCU_Athletics pic.twitter.com/rRVKhqhxkW

— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) October 9, 2022

Even though Johnston delivers an intriguing combination of size, speed, and explosiveness, it is legitimate to question the degree to which he maximizes his strengths. This is underscored by his 34.8 congested catch rate according to PFF.

Quentin Johnston's Numbers At The NFL Combine

One of the top WR prospects Quentin Johnston logs an 11'2" on the broad jump. @MrJohnston____ | @TCUFootball

📺: #NFLCombine on @nflnetwork
📱: Stream on NFL+ pic.twitter.com/bpcFeUSA3B

— NFL (@NFL) March 4, 2023

Johnston delivered encouraging numbers during several drills at the NFL Combine while tying for second among all wide receivers in the broad jump (11’,2”), (99th percentile) and registering the third-best result in the vertical jump (40’.5”), (95th percentile). 

WRs at the NFL Scouting Combine with 36-inch+ vertical jump (1/3):

Bryce Ford-Wheaton, WVU- 41
Rashee Rice, SMU- 41
Quentin Johnston, TCU- 40.5
Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee- 40
Jason Brownlee, Southern Miss- 39.5
Tyler Scott, Cincinnati- 39.5
Marvin Mims, OU- 39.5

— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) March 4, 2023

Johnston did not run the 40-yard dash at the combine but completed the drill in 4.49 during TCU's Pro Day. He also registered 7.31 in the three-cone and 4.28 in the short-shuttle.

Quentin Johnston runs a 4.50 at his pro day🐸

pic.twitter.com/7gozNWzcby

— PFF College (@PFF_College) March 30, 2023

The results from both the combine and TCU's Pro Day did not diminish the enthusiasm surrounding Johnston’s capabilities, nor did it eliminate the areas of concern that prevented him from becoming the first receiver to be selected from this year's rookie class.

Quentin Johnston's Role Will Expand As He Operates With Justin Herbert

With the No. 21 overall pick in the 2023 @NFLDraft, the@chargers select WR Quentin Johnston!@neweracap | #BoltUp

📺: 2023 #NFLDraft on NFLN/ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/D3EqkrKdIw pic.twitter.com/ht8otb42Vn

— NFL (@NFL) April 28, 2023

Johnston has not emerged in an offense that contains an elite receiver. However, he will integrate into an aerial attack that will include two established veterans who have been operating as Herbert’s top receiving weapons. The presence of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams atop the Chargers’ depth chart will inhibit Johnston from operating at a level beyond  WR3 for the Chargers this season, providing that they can avoid health issues. However, Johnston is positioned to experience a sizable increase in his role following the 2023 regular season if the current cap hit of nearly $67 million for Allen and Williams in 2024 results in their extraction from the roster.

Johnston will join a Los Angeles passing attack that finished third overall in 2022 (269.6 yards per game) and ranked second in pass play percentage (65.1%) during Joe Lombardi’s second and final season as offensive coordinator. While Lombardi’s persistent dependence on the team’s aerial attack resulted in some numbers that were highly favorable, the restrictions that he placed on Herbert's downfield throws created results that were problematic.

According to @PFF, here is the ADOT for Justin Herbert -- one of the best deep ball throwers in the NFL -- each of his first three years in the NFL.

2020: 7.8
2021: 7.9
2022: 6.9

Coaching malpractice.

— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) January 17, 2023

Herbert finished second overall with a career-high 699 passing attempts (41.1 per game) and was also second in completions (477/28.1 per game/68.2%), and passing yards (4,739/278.8 per game). However, he also finished just 23rd in yards per attempt (6.8), which was below his average during 2020-2021 (7.4). Herbert also tied for 31st in intended air yards per attempt (6.4) and was 28th in completed air yards per attempt (3.2), after he had averaged 7.6/3.9 during 2021.

The Chargers have transitioned from Lombardi to Kellen Moore, who becomes the architect of LA’s offense, after operating as the offensive coordinator in Dallas from 2019-2022. This should supply Herbert with more opportunities to launch downfield targets, which will enhance Johnston's potential to contribute as a vertical weapon.

Quentin Johnston's Competition For Targets  

Chargers built a literal basketball team at WR

6’1 Josh Palmer
6’1 Jalen Guyton
6’2 Keenan Allen
6’3 Quentin Johnston
6’4 Mike Williams

Certainly have a type at WR that’s for sure

— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) April 28, 2023

Los Angeles ranked just 27th in targets that were distributed to wide receivers (55.6%), as Allen and Williams combined for a share of 41%. Allen is now 31 as he enters his 11th season with the Chargers, while Williams will turn 29 in October. The contracts for both receivers were restructured in March, leaving the tandem primed to secure favorable target shares for one more season – if they can elude protracted injuries.

Allen has accumulated 837 targets (9.5 per game) since 2017, which is the second-highest total among all wide receivers. He is also second in receptions (575/6.5 per game), and sixth in receiving yards (6,670/75.8) during that sequence.

Allen operated from the slot on 63.7% of his routes last season, although his overall numbers were constrained by a lingering hamstring issue that developed during the team’s season opener. This limited him to just 23 snaps and two targets from Weeks 2-10 before he reemerged for a statistical eruption from Weeks 11-18. Allen soared to a league-high 60 receptions (7.5 per game), including 8+ during four of his last five games.

He also rose to second among all wide receivers with 83 targets (10.4 per game), collected a league-best 15 red zone targets, and finished fifth in receiving yards (675/84.4 per game). Allen was also sixth in yards after catch (243), ninth in targets per route run (33.5%), and 10th in routes run (248) while averaging 15 points per game during those contests.

What a throw and what a catch from Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen ⚡️pic.twitter.com/mXPLktadz3

— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) November 21, 2022

Allen will commandeer a sizable target share once again although his status for 2024 remains uncertain. Williams’ future beyond this season is equally nebulous, although he is firmly positioned to operate in an integral role during 2023. The Chargers seized Williams with the seventh pick of the 2017 NFL Draft, and he has averaged 5.7 targets, 3.4 receptions, and 53.6 yards per game during his tenure with the team.

Williams has eclipsed 100 targets, and 75 receptions once during his career while assembling 1,000+ yards twice. His career-highs in each category were attained during 2021 (129 targets/8.1 per game), (76 receptions/4.8 per game), (1,146 yards/71.6 per game), as were his career-bests in yards after catch (415), and red zone targets (23).

Mike Williams is balling out tonight 🔥 @darealmike_dub #TNFonPrime #LACvsKC on Prime Video
Also available on NFL+ https://t.co/Fa02SqPmRn pic.twitter.com/dNRVcKQJ0j

— NFL (@NFL) September 16, 2022

Williams' 2022 regular season launched with encouraging numbers as he operated with a 25.5% target share and rose to fifth overall in targets (40/10.0 per game) from Weeks 2-5. Williams also vaulted to third in air yards (482), and air yards share (46.9%) while finishing fourth in receiving yards (382/95.5 per game), and seventh in routes run (167). A  problematic ankle limited him to just six snaps from Weeks 9-13, but he resurfaced to finish sixth in receiving yards (353/88,3 per game), and 10th in air yards (357) from Weeks 14-17, while his average of 3.36 yards per route run led all receivers with 15+ targets during those matchups. Williams will retain a sizable role this season, but Johnston's path toward a more substantial target share would be cleared if Williams' unsettled future eventually leads to his removal from the depth chart.

The arrival of Johnston is a problematic development for Joshua Palmer, who had ascended into an expanded role while Allen and Williams contended with their health issues during 2022. Palmer registered a 38% snap share during 2021, but that percentage rose to 80% last season, while he also finished seventh overall with an average of 9.7 targets per game from Weeks 6-13.

Palmer also rose to 14th with 58 targets, despite being sidelined in Week 7 (concussion) and remaining unavailable in Week 8 (bye week). Allen and Williams combined for six missed games during that span, as Palmer also finished sixth in targets per route run (34.9%), 12th in receptions (40/6.7 per game), and generated 429 yards (71.5 per game).

Palmer’s numbers unsurprisingly dropped when Allen and Williams returned as he averaged 3.8 targets/2.8 receptions/29.5 yards per game from Weeks 14-17. He was also a distant third behind Allen and Williams in target share (10.3%), and targets per route run (18.1%).

Herbert also dispensed a league-high 26% of his targets to LA’s running backs, as Austin Ekeler became the primary recipient of those opportunities. Ekeler led all backs with 127 targets  (7.5 per game) while collecting 8+ during eight different matchups. He also led his position in targets per route run (36.2%), receptions (107/6.3 per game), and yards after catch (843), while rising to second in receiving yards (722/42.5 per game), and yards per route run (2.06).

Ekeler also led all backs in targets (221/6.7 per game), receptions (177/5.4 per game), receiving yards (1,369/42.5 per game), and receiving touchdowns (13) during his two seasons in Lombardi’s offense (2021-2022). It is reasonable to question whether his numbers as a receiver will be replicated under Moore,  whose offenses distributed a percentage of targets to running backs that ranged from 18.6%-15.6% during his four seasons with the Cowboys (15.6/18.6/18.1/16.1). However, even though Ekeler has expressed dissatisfaction with his current contract, the seven-year veteran should ultimately garner a favorable target share, as he plays out the final year of his deal.

Quentin Johnston's Fantasy Football Outlook

freak athlete.

→ https://t.co/nNqMfwm5Y3 pic.twitter.com/fjpwrX20Wg

— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) April 28, 2023

Johnston will provide Justin Herbert with a sizable downfield target who can also operate effectively on shorter routes. His prospects of generating yards after the catch also remain encouraging, as Johnston's size combines with his other attributes to create potential matchup nightmares for opposing defenders.  These capabilities were underscored by his accumulation of 18 forced missed tackles during 2022, which placed him eighth overall among Power Five receivers according to PFF.

Johnston will also benefit from operating in a pass-oriented offense and will be collecting targets from a quarterback who can accurately locate him downfield. The conversion from Lombardi to Moore is also advantageous for Johnston since Herbert’s capabilities to launch deep throws should no longer be suppressed.

yards after catch >>>> pic.twitter.com/ufQpYmfjUv

— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) April 28, 2023

These factors are promising, although Johnston also joins the Chargers' receiving arsenal with an unquestioned need for improvement in several areas. This provides him with an opportunity to accelerate his timeline for becoming an integral roster component through the expansion of his route tree and improvement in his ability to take advantage of his attributes with greater frequency. He also needs to avoid replication of the issues that led to eight drops in 2022.

Johnston will initially contend with Palmer for WR3 usage behind Allen and Williams but should steadily ascend into that role as the season progresses. Even though his target share will be impacted by the presence of Allen and Williams, LA‘s veteran receivers will also attract sizable attention that will often allow Johnston to avoid coverage from the opposition's most formidable defenders.

Comeback routes are a calling card for Quentin Johnston

✅ Great job selling vertical

✅ Very efficient getting in and out of breaks on vertical stems (especially at his size; 6’4”, 212 lbs)

✅ Nice feel for timing & working back to the ball pic.twitter.com/JJoHZ083HB

— Aidan Maher (@Aidan_Maher17) August 9, 2022

Johnston's outlook beyond 2023 becomes favorable due to his projected ascension into a more expansive role if Allen or Williams are extracted from the equation. This will elevate Johnston on the Chargers’ depth chart, although it will be incumbent upon him to continually cultivate his skills in order to prevail against coverage that will intensify as he ascends into a larger role. The continual refinement of his skills will also expedite a rise in his target share and could expand his opportunities as a red zone weapon after he failed to exceed six touchdowns during his three seasons at TCU.

Johnston will also elevate into an expanded role this season if Allen or Williams encounter health issues. This would accentuate the advantage of operating with Herbert, in a restructured aerial attack that should utilize more downfield throws. That should incentivize you to target Johnston at 1.05 during rookie drafts in 1QB leagues, while he becomes a viable option at 1.08 in Superflex leagues. Johnston is also worthy of selection once you have entered Round 9 of your best ball drafts.

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