X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

NFL Prop Bet Picks - Super Bowl Predictions

Top recommended prop bets, picks, and betting advice for Super Bowl LIII. Seth Finkelstein gives an in-depth fantasy football preview for the big game.

The biggest game of the football season is upon us, but it's a melancholy game. We all are excited to watch it and find out who wins, but as each second passes, the quarters go by, the closer we are to not watching a meaningful football game for seven months. That's why you need to make the most of this game. Most people do that by gathering with friends for Super Bowl parties. However, most of those people don't know anything about football. People cheer for meaningless plays and don't understand the basic concept of 1st-and-10. For some people, the Super Bowl is the only NFL game they'll watch all season. If your response is, "Well, why not watch it alone?" Because that's anti-social. At least Vegas gives you so many wild and crazy prop bets to follow and that makes me happy.

In this column, I will be breaking down the big game including several prop bets - whether it's a player prop or game prop. Prop odds I used were from VSIN's 89-page prop bet compilation. My best advice would be to handicap the game in what you think will happen, and bet accordingly. If you expect a shootout, then go over on pass attempts and completions. If you expect a ball control, low-scoring game, then go under rushing yards, etc.

Be sure to try out these great tools from our friends at Lineups.com as well. For live Super Bowl odds at the Vegas Sportsbooks, you can follow the Live Odds page. And check out the free NFL betting system - test your own player predictions and see the results using machine learning models.

Editor's Note: Discover RotoBaller’s top Fantasy Football Sleepers to gain an edge in your drafts. Our free who to draft tool and expert picks spotlight undervalued players, breakout candidates, and late-round gems for all league formats.

 

Super Bowl Picks - Player/Game Props

Shortest touchdown of the game under 1.5 (-160)

This is heavy vig, but it's worth it to lay the extra money. This prop has hit in seven of the last eight playoff games.

Patriots to score a touchdown in the first quarter (-120)

The Pats have never scored a first-quarter touchdown in Brady/Belichick's eight Super Bowls. They've scored a grand total of three points and that was last year. So how come the vig for the yes is -120 while the no is even? Vegas is trying to tell you something here and want you to bet the no. Vegas isn't fooling me here.

How many different Patriots players will have a rushing attempt in a game? Under 6.5 (-120)

The Patriots are so mercurial that seven different players having a rush attempt is possible. Here's who it can be; Sony Michel, James White, Rex Burkhead, James Develin, Cordarrelle Patterson, Julian Edelman, and Tom Brady. But that's just too many guys. Bill Belichick will go with players he trusts in this game. Seven seems too much.

Greg Zuerlein over 1.5 field goals made (-140)

Legatron averaged 1.68 made field goals per game in the regular season and 3.5 in the playoffs. This game is in a dome, so it'll be easier to kick.

C.J. Anderson under 11.5 rushing attempts (-110)

Everyone is obsessed with Anderson after his monster game against the Cowboys in the Divisional Round, but for the Rams to win this game, they'll need Todd Gurley to run a lot and play well. This is not an Anderson game.

Josh Reynolds over 3.5 receptions (+110)

New England takes away your best weapons. They took away Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill in the AFC Championship game. Come Sunday, they'll take away Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. Reynolds will get the targets, the only question is, will he catch them?

Gerald Everett over 2.5 reception yards (even) and Tyler Higbee over 2.5 receptions (+110)

Same logic applies to these two props as the one about Reynolds does. If you hit two of these three, you're making money.

Patriots more first downs than Rams (-110)

New England has 66 first downs in the postseason to L.A.'s 49. In the regular season. The Rams did lead the regular season in first downs, but they were also third in 20+ yard plays. They're a big-play team while the Patriots control the clock and go on long drives.

Stephen Gostkowski's first kickoff to be a touchback (+180)

The Action Network broke this one down well; "The league median for touchback rate this season was 62%, with Gostkowski getting no return on 53.8% of his kickoffs (with a slightly better rate on the road). His average kick distance of 62.2 yards was the lowest of his career, which is certainly meaningful information. But check out this stat: Falcons punter Matt Bosher, who kicks off for Atlanta, converted 70.6% of his home kickoffs into touchbacks in 2018 (seventh-best for any team) compared to only 39.5% on the road (third-worst) — i.e. there’s really good evidence that kicks carry in Mercedes-Benz Stadium."

 

Super Bowl Picks - Miscellaneous Props

Zion Williamson -5.5 points/rebounds vs. St. John's over Patriots+Rams first-half points (-110)

This is my favorite prop of the year. I'm a big St. John's fan and watch every game. They do not have a big man and get dominated on the glass. The Johhnies are 172nd in opponent offensive rebounds per game allowing 8.4. Duke is second in the nation in offensive rebounds per game with 13.2. Williamson is ninth in the nation in that category averaging 3.6. In total, he averages nine boards per game, 43rd in nation. He's also averaging 22 points per game, 17th in the nation. Simply put, he's going to dominate St. John's. He's good for 25 points and 13 rebounds. Vegas pegs the first half total at 27.5 So assumes Zion gets 35-38 total points/rebounds, that's still slightly more while having to give 5.5.

Villanova points -7.5 over Brandin Cooks receiving yards (-110)

Nova struggled early on but in their last five games have scored 90, 85, 80, 80, and 86. In their last four, Georgetown has allowed 90, 74, 91, and 78. This game will also be played in Philly so let's say Nova scores 85. That'll be plenty to cash this ticket. If anyone knows how to shut down Brandin Cooks, it's going to be Bill Belichick who coached Cooks last year. Besides for his 107-yard outburst against the Saints, Cooks averaged 51 receiving yards in his previous six games.

Greg Zuerlein -3.5 points over Justin Thomas final round birdies (-110)

*Thomas must tee off in the final round for this to count*

I like Zuerlein to make more than two field goals and the Rams will score two or three touchdowns so let's say he scores eight points. That means JT would need five birdies to win. As I wrote in my preview for the Phoenix Open, Thomas struggles to get his game going early in the season and picks it up later in the season.

James White +10.5 receiving yards over New Hampshire points scored vs. Maine (-110)

I follow the America East (UNH's conference) because I'm a graduate of Binghamton University. The America East is a slow-it-down grind-it-out conference. There's no sense of urgency in these games and they love to walk it up, call a play, then when that play doesn't work out, call another play. On top of all that, UNH is the fifth-worst scoring team in the nation (349th) with 58 points. Maine does allow 72 points per game, but UNH hasn't broken 70 since Nov. 12. They only scored 70+ two other times all season. Those three times were the first three games of the season and two of those opponents were not even in D-1.

The Pats love using their running backs out of the backfield in the Super Bowl. White had 110 reception yards in the Super Bowl against the Falcons and Shane Vereen recorded 64 reception yards against the Seahawks. White had 97 receiving yards against the Chargers in the Divisional Round and 49 against the Chiefs. 49 will be just enough to win this bet.

 

Super Bowl Game Prediction

With two weeks to prepare for this game, both teams know every single thing about the other team. Every formation, tendency, play, you name it.

If the Rams are to win, they'll need Todd Gurley to come up huge. Jared Goff can't win this game by himself. People are saying Goff looked great against the Saints, but he really was shaky. On the last drive of the fourth quarter when the Rams were driving to kick a game-tying field goal, Goff threw it behind Woods which would've been a touchdown. When the pressure came on third-down, Goff simply threw it away. If he would have waited a half-second more, Woods would have been wide open for a touchdown. In overtime, he made two dump-off passes to get them into field-goal range. I think he'll be very panicked early on and take time to settle down. By then, the Rams will be behind and playing on the biggest stage from behind against the mighty Patriots, is a whole another story than playing from behind against the Saints.

We all know the only way to frazzle Brady is interior pressure. The Rams have that will Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh. Donald will be doubled and I expect the Pats offensive-line to continue their fantastic play. New England will run the ball and control the clock like they did against the Chargers and Chiefs wearing out the Rams defense. Brady will pick on Marcus Peters, who has been nothing short of awful this season.

One more thing to note, all eight Brady/Belichick Super Bowls have been decided by one-possession; 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 6, 8 points. Each game has come down to the final possession. I expect this one to be one possession, but not the closest game of them all. The Rams will score late to make it a one-possession game. Brady is on a mission to get that sixth Super Bowl ring to avenge last year's loss. Belichick will have the defense ready to rattle Goff.

Patriots 31 - Rams 23

Thanks for reading my column all year. I'll be back writing my NFL Survivor Picks column in the fall. Until then stay tuned for my weekly column on the PGA Tour.

More NFL Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
NFL

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Ha-Seong Kim

Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim From Injured List
Christian Moore

Placed on Injured List With Thumb Sprain
Luis L. Ortiz

the Subject of Gambling Investigation
Jordan Lawlar

to Miss Multiple Weeks With Hamstring Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Receives Encouraging News on his Hand
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Toronto Raptors

Sandro Mamukelashvili Heading to Toronto
Daron Payne

Commanders Coaches Impressed With Daron Payne
Danny Gray

Makes Impression During Offseason Workouts
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dane Belton

Should Have a Role in 2025
Kaiir Elam

Flashes During Offseason Workouts
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Riley Greene

Homers Twice, Drives in Six on Wednesday
Max Muncy

Exits With Apparent Knee Injury
Christian Moore

Exits Early with Thumb Irritation
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Josh Naylor

Returning to Diamondbacks Lineup
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Oronde Gadsden

an Active Pass-Catcher This Offseason
Brashard Smith

Speed Could be Put to Use
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Pat Bryant

Off to a Good Start
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
Cody Barton

Quickly Becoming a Leader With his New Team
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
Montaric Brown

has Worked With Starters
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
DET

James van Riemsdyk Joins Red Wings on One-Year Contract
Viktor Arvidsson

Traded to Boston
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Josh Jung

Sent to Triple-A
Jurickson Profar

Officially Reinstated and Hitting in Five-Hole on Wednesday
Spencer Schwellenbach

Going on Injured List With Fractured Elbow
Maxwell Hairston

Facing Sexual-Assault Lawsuit
Tai Felton

Rookie Season Likely to be Spent on Special Teams
LeQuint Allen Jr.

to Have Receiving Role for Jaguars?
Justin Walley

Turning Heads Going into Rookie Season
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
Jamari Thrash

Establishing Himself as Reliable Option
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Brandon Woodruff

Likely to Pitch on Sunday in Miami
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
PHI

Dan Vladar Links Up With Flyers on Two-Year Deal
Zac Gallen

Fans 10 in Tuesday's Win
Hunter Goodman

Hits Two More Homers Tuesday
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Jeff Green

Signs One-Year Deal to Remain in Houston
Los Angeles Lakers

Jake LaRavia Lands with Lakers
Orlando Magic

Tyus Jones Signs One-Year Deal With Magic
Golden State Warriors

Kevon Looney Heads to New Orleans
Milwaukee Bucks

Jericho Sims Staying in Milwaukee
Denver Nuggets

Tim Hardaway Jr. Joins Nuggets
Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Lands With Detroit
Charlotte Hornets

Tre Mann Remaining in Charlotte
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Milwaukee Bucks

Gary Harris Inks Deal With Bucks
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF