X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

PPR Draft Targets - Undervalued Wide Receivers

Antonio Losada evaluates wide receivers that should become targets in PPR fantasy football drafts due to their low ADP compared to potential return on investment (ROI).t and reception volume.

For fantasy football GMs, draft season is gearing up. Preparing for what is waiting for us in our virtual war-rooms is a key part of the process and the first thing to know is the format of the league we're going to be part of. The difference between Standard and PPR (Point-Per-Reception) scoring systems is really simple, with the latter awarding one extra point to players that catch a pass. Standard scoring was a staple in the early days of fantasy football, but PPR has become the most played system lately.

It doesn't take a genius to know who this benefits the most: over-targeted receivers, pass-catching running backs, and reliable tight ends. While some players are good enough to put up good numbers on their pure talent, others might fall shorter on the ability leaderboard. Some of those, though, trump the most talented ones in fantasy leagues due to a heavier usage and racking up receptions that go for extra fantasy points.

Having the PPR scoring system in mind, it's time to discover which players are surefire bets to excel in leagues following that format that are currently being undervalued in drafts by fantasy GMs. Today, I'm highlighting four wide receivers who are primed to become studs in these leagues that have lower ADPs and prices than those they should be attached to.

Editor's Note: Discover RotoBaller’s top Fantasy Football Sleepers to gain an edge in your drafts. Our free who to draft tool and expert picks spotlight undervalued players, breakout candidates, and late-round gems for all league formats.

 

Julian Edelman, New England Patriots

ADP: 148.2, Projected PPR: 189.8

I get the concerns. Tom Brady is no longer leading the Patriots, which is to say the Patriots have lost the GOAT at the QB position. That, no matter how you look at it, can only make things worse for the team's receiving corps. Or can it? In the last two seasons, Edelman has averaged 9.4 targets per game in the 28 matches he's been active, catching an average of 6.2 of those 9.4 targets (65.9%).

Edelman was the clear no. 1 WR of the Pats those two years, and nothing will change that in 2020. New England has brought no new threats to Edelman, will feature a "rookie" quarterback in Jarred Stidham, and Edelman is the safest option to throw the ball to. You can almost count the times he's dropped below five receptions in the last 28 games. He's a virtual lock to get his 5 PPG only by catching passes.

PFF projects Edelman to 189.8 PPR in 2020 thanks to 73 receptions, 869 yards, and 4 TDs. I'd say those are tamed predictions. Even with that, though, Edelman is getting off the board in the last round of 12-team drafts yet his projections have him as a low-end WR2 at the very least. He's the cheapest no. 1 option, the only player with an ADP below 100 projected to get targeted more than 110 times, and one of only 20 WRs expected to get more than 23% of his team's targets (23.5%).

 

Marvin Jones Jr., Detroit Lions

ADP: 158.5, Projected PPR: 206.9

Somebody explain Jones' case to me because it has me completely lost. Sure, Jones was a little bit bouncy last season from week to week, but even with that the gap in ADP between Jones (158.5) and Kenny Golladay (37.6) is massive. Not only that but when comparing his projections it makes even less sense: PFF projects Jones to reach 206.9 PPR in 2020 and Golladay to 270.1. Jones would be the WR16 and Galladay the WR5. But we're looking for undervalued receivers and the ROI returned by Jones (2.44) is much higher than that of Golladay (2.06).

Let me hand you some interesting takeaways from PFF projections: Jones in the only WR projected to get 205+ PPR with an ADP above 75 (Tyler Lockett); only Edelman (114) projects to get more targets than Jones (108) among those with an ADP above 100; Jones is one of only 11 WRs projected to finish 2020 with 105+ targets, 65+ receptions, 975+ yards, and 6+ TDs.

All of that at the sweet ADP of 158.5. No other WR with a 105/65/975/6 projection has an ADP above 46, by the way. There is no WR2 in the NFl that has the upside to reach better numbers than Jones in 2020 other than perhaps Mike Evans/Chris Godwin, depending on how you order them. And again, those two are currently being drafted at ADPs of 30.8 and 20.9 respectively. Now tell me Jones is not a clear bargain these days.

 

Jamison Crowder, New York Jets

ADP: 153.7, Projected PPR: 164.5

Last season, the Jets featured Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde on offense. While WR Robby Anderson was the quick, deep threat to use on long boom/bust passes, Jamison Crowder played the safety valve role. That's why Anderson had an average AYT of 14.2 (14th-highest in the NFL) compared to Crowder's 7.3 (98th-highest). Crowder is the ultimate PPR asset at the wide receiver position. He's a short-pass catcher, reliable, and his floor is always going to be high because of the way he's used and how he can rack up reception-points that way.

Things have not changed much in New York. Flip Anderson for newly acquired Brashad Perriman, and add rookie Denzel Mims to the equation but don't expect the latter to get a lot of opportunities from Crowder. PFF has Crowder projected as the no. 1 WR of the Jets in terms of targets (94) and target share (20%, including all Jets RBs/TEs/WRs). Crowder is projected to catch 68 passes for 724 yards and 4 TDs.

While Crowder might not get to a high yardage number, his upside relies mostly on his pass-catching prowess. He's one of 26 WRs league-wide projected to 68+ receptions. Consider Crowder the poor man's Marvin Jones: tons of catches, only accruing fewer receiving yards due to his short-distance usage.

 

Sterling Shepard, New York Giants

ADP: 147.9, Projected PPR: 166.5

Remember Julian Edelman, from the blurb above? Well, if Crowder is poor man's Marvin Jones then Shepard is the equivalent only compared to Edelman. As you can see in the chart, Shepard has played 26 games in the last two seasons and only seven times has he finished with fewer than four receptions. He averaged 4.7 per game (with 7.4 targets) with a 63.5% catch rate in that span, and in 2019 alone he raised his targets to 8.5 per game and his receptions to 5.7 per.

Looking at PFF projections, Shepard is expected to score 166.5 PPR points in 2020, making him the WR35 and thus a WR3 or FLEX option in 12-team leagues. That being said, he projects to catch 62 passes while getting a great 18.3% of the Giants targets. He's the fourth-cheapest wideout by ADP projected to catch 62+ passes other than the three discussed above.

In a similar fashion to Jamison Crowder, Shepard's depth of target is often short (9.6 yards per target, 74th in the league) and that boosts his value in PPR leagues as he's far from a boom/bust player on a per-snap basis. The injury concerns are probably dragging him down a bit but he was able to string six active games to close 2019 while racking up 77.9 PPR points in that span.

More ADP Values and Sleepers




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Cal Raleigh

Continues Historic Homer Pace Tuesday
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF