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Power Risers and Fallers for Week 15: Buy or Sell?

Welcome back to this investigative piece where we examine players who have seen some notable changes in their power profiles -- for better or for worse -- in 2017.

As usual, you don’t need me to tell you that Miguel Sano and Aaron Judge are strong or that Jarrod Dyson and Billy Hamilton are toward the bottom in average exit velocity. Just because there’s no baseball being played right now doesn’t mean the analyses stop! In fact, it means they get churned out even more because what else do we have to do with our lives?

Identifying top power risers and fallers for each week can help you swing the best deals and spot the best pickups before your competition. We'll do the hard work for you, looking at the underlying metrics that influence a hitter's power: fly-ball, pull, hard-hit rates and exit velocity. Consider buying these week 15 power risers and selling these week 15 power fallers.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Power Risers

Nelson Cruz - (OF, SEA):

This name isn’t likely to surprise, as the photogenic All-Star has already hit three homers with 11 RBI in just eight July contests after hitting only two round-trippers in the entire month of June (25 games). His fly-ball rate had sunk to 33.8 percent last month, but now it sits at 54.5 percent alongside a 54.6 percent pull rate and 54.6 percent hard-hit rate. 54 just might be his lucky number!

While that mark will surely stabilize a bit toward the low 40s as the month plays out, it’s definitely encouraging to see a bat of his caliber show flashes of outstanding power like this. I'd expect this to lead into a solid second half that sees his lower 17.2 percent HR/FB rate on the season continue to rise toward his mark of 26.2 percent last season (30.3 percent in '15).

Willson Contreras - (C/OF, CHC):

Over the first two and a half months of the 2017 season, Contreras socked just five homers with a .239/.306/.381 slash line in 196 plate appearances. There wasn’t much hope as he hit June’s mid-point without a homer since May 28. Then he socked a pair of doubles on both June 16 and 18 to jumpstart a 22-game stretch (82 PAs) that has seen him hit .315 with six homers.

The 25-year-old’s bat is heating up with the weather, as he’s notched a sweet 38.6 percent hard-hit rate, 40 percent fly-ball rate and 49 percent pull rate over this recent surge. The pull rate is nothing new, but the hard-hit rate is up eight percentage points and the fly-ball rate has jumped 14 percentage points, as he’s seeing both his exit velocity and launch angles creep up toward optimal levels.

Todd Frazier - (1B/3B, CWS):

While still hitting a lowly .213 on the season and entering the All-Star break having gone a disappointing 1-for-9 in a three-game series at Coors Field, the Toddfather looked like a new man in June and just may carry that forward here. Frazier ripped eight homers in June after hitting just seven between April and May combined, but he also went from hitting .181 to hitting .261. One is terrible, and one isn’t going to hurt anybody.

He’s already knocked three doubles and a homer in eight July games, with six walks to six strikeouts in 33 PAs. But we want to be sure that the power metrics are still there. Well, his fly-ball rate is at 55.6 percent in July, his pull rate is at 50 percent and the hard-hit rate sits at 38.9 percent (35.7 percent in June). He’s ticking off all of the boxes right now, and if he manages to keep up the contact and cull those strikeouts then all the better for us.

Carlos Correa - (SS, HOU):

Correa has been going cor-razy lately, but I’m specifically picking him out here because of what his power is supported by. We all know how he hit just two homers with a poor .233 average in April, and it’s been a nonstop joyride ever since. Despite hitting seven homers in both May and June only to open July with four dingers in seven games (sheesh), he’s been relying more and more on each fly ball to get out of the park as the season has gone on.

The young slugger’s fly-ball rate has gone from 39.1 percent in April down to 26.6 percent in June (20.8 percent in July so far), as his HR/FB rate sat at a lofty 33.3 percent last month. It’s 80 percent in July. Yes, only one of his five fly balls has failed to leave the park. Part of that comes from owning a hard-hit rate above 40 percent, but don’t expect the party to continue at quite this rate -- he simply isn’t showing the swing for it.

 

Power Fallers

Edwin Encarnacion - (1B, CLE):

Encarnacion took his parrot for seven strolls around the bases in June thanks to his fly-ball rate receiving a 17-percentage-point shot in the arm. While his early July rate sits at 44 percent, his pull rate is down at 18.5 percent and his hard-hit rate is at 26 percent -- down 10 percentage points from both May and June. Things should even out as more games get played, but the bottom line is that so far his bat hasn’t been getting around on the ball like it was in June and his performance is rightfully suffering as a result. I have faith he’ll be okay, but I also don’t want folks thinking he’s still drilling it with the same authority and simply getting unlucky.

Ryon Healy - (1B/3B, OAK):

Since clubbing two homers on June 17, Healy has been mired in a 13-for-67 (.194) slump over his last 18 games. He’s hit two homers and one double in that span with four walks against 22 strikeouts, though plate discipline has never really been his thing. What’s happened is he’s suddenly driving the ball into the dirt (58.7 percent ground-ball rate) with a poor 23.9 percent hard-hit rate fueling said gopher-thumpers. Compare that to his first half of June, when he hit grounders at a 39.1 percent clip alongside a healthy 43.5 percent fly-ball rate and robust 52.2 percent hard-hit rate. I think this is more of a rookie streak, but someone with his propensity for whiffing (26.7 percent strikeout rate on the season) can get into trouble like this pretty easily when their swing is even just the tiniest bit off.

Matt Kemp - (OF, ATL):

Kemp was able to avoid a second trip to the disabled list this season after his left hamstring tightened up on him on June 14 -- it was the right one that sent him to the DL in April -- but maybe he should’ve taken the time anyway. Something is not right here for the 32-year-old, as he’s hit just .176 (12-for-68) with one homer and two doubles in 19 games since that tightness sprung up.

It isn’t just the results, I promise you. While he’s still pulling the ball 40 percent of the time, his hard-hit rate of 22 percent alongside a 20 percent fly-ball rate is just not going to cut it. That hard-hit rate sat at 38 percent prior to June’s midpoint and one out of every three batted-balls was being lifted. This is really bad, so hopefully, the All-Star break gave his body enough downtime to feel comfortable again. Keep an eye on his swing plane and whether he’s getting any lift on the ball in the early going.

Addison Russell - (SS, CHC):

Remember when Russell went 13-for-34 (.382) with four doubles and four homers over a 10-game span from June 11-22? Well, I don’t because he’s gone just 7-for-39 (.179) since with a lonely double standing as his only extra-base hit over that span. He had enjoyed a lovely 54 percent hard-hit rate over that little surge, but it’s fallen back to 30.8 percent. Couple that with a below-average 26.9 percent fly-ball rate (down from 34.6 percent) and a 34.6 percent pull rate (down from 50 percent), and one can see that his bat is indeed lost.

That hot streak also relied on four of his nine fly balls leaving the yard, so he had some luck in there as well. What’s most interesting is how his average exit velocity is actually up on the whole -- from 87.2 mph to 87.6 mph -- but it’s actually down on balls struck in the air. His fly-ball/line-drive AEV has sunk from 92.3 mph to 90.9 mph, which helps explain how his barrels per batted-ball rate has sunk from 9.3 percent to 5.7 percent. Move along.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

GG Jackson II

Out on Friday
Marcus Smart

Rejoins Lakers Lineup
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Returns Against Grizzlies
Jalen Suggs

to Return to Magic Lineup Saturday
Anthony Davis

to Miss at Least Two Games
Guerschon Yabusele

Available Friday
Mitchell Robinson

Won't Have Minutes Restriction Friday
Karl-Anthony Towns

Ready to Face Bulls
Connor Brown

Considered Questionable for Saturday
Malik Monk

Won't Suit Up on Saturday
Gleyber Torres

Undergoes Sports-Hernia Surgery
Dylan Strome

Remains Out Friday
Elias Lindholm

to Miss Several Weeks
Donovan Mitchell

Unavailable For Friday's Matchup With Raptors
Jarrett Allen

Won't Play on Friday Night
Kaapo Kakko

Could Be an Option Saturday
Gustav Nyquist

Ruled Out for Saturday
Bo Bichette

Not Expecting to Need Offseason Knee Surgery
William Nylander

Considered a Game-Time Call for Saturday
Chris Kreider

Returning to Ducks Lineup Friday
Obi Toppin

Will Undergo Foot Surgery on Monday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Questionable For Matchup Versus Sacramento
Joel Embiid

To Remain On Minutes Restriction On Friday
Amen Thompson

Fourth-Year Option Picked Up on Friday
LaMelo Ball

Questionable For Saturday's Game
Nico Collins

Officially Cleared to Face Broncos on Sunday
Jalen Williams

Undergoes Follow-Up Procedure, Will Miss More Time
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Questionable to Play, but Won't Start in Week 9
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Out of Action on Friday
Travis Hunter

ACL is Intact
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Chris Livingston Reaches Two-Way Deal With Cleveland
Brandon Miller

Fourth-Year Option Picked Up on Friday
Mitchell Robinson

Returning To Starting Lineup On Friday
Alvin Kamara

Questionable for Week 9, Trending Toward Playing
George Springer

Back in Leadoff Spot for Game 6 of World Series
Michael Penix Jr.

Not Listed on Injury Report For Week 9
Drake London

Practices in Full on Friday, Will Play in Week 9
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Officially Cleared to Return in Week 9
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Ruled Out for Week 9 Due to Groin Injury
Rico Dowdle

Will "Start and Get the Bulk of the Carries" in Week 9
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Trey Hendrickson

Doubtful vs Bears
Calvin Ridley

Officially Ruled Out for Week 9
Rhamondre Stevenson

Officially Ruled Out for Week 9
Joe Flacco

Questionable to Play Against Bears
Travis Hunter

to Miss the Rest of the Season?
Bryce Young

Good to Go for Week 9
Jayden Daniels

Will Start on Sunday Night Against Seattle
David Onama

Set For UFC Vegas 110 Main Event
Steve Garcia

Returns At UFC Vegas 110
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Set For Co-Main Event
Ante Delija

In Search For His Second UFC Win
Miami Dolphins

Chris Grier Out as Dolphins GM, Mike McDaniel Safe for Now
Themba Gorimbo

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 110
Brian Thomas Jr.

Standing Out at Practice
Jeremiah Wells

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Yadier del Valle

Looks To Remain Undefeated
CFB

Arizona State Quarterback Sam Leavitt Out for the Season
Travis Hunter

Will Be Placed on Injured Reserve After Suffering Knee Injury
Isaac Dulgarian

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Daniel Frunza

Looks For His First UFC Win
Charles Radtke

Looks To Bounce Back
Allan Nascimento

Set To Open Up UFC Vegas 110 Main Card
Cody Durden

In Dire Need Of Victory
Puka Nacua

Says He'll Return in Week 9
Jason Dickinson

Aggravates Shoulder Injury Thursday
Gustav Nyquist

Sustains Injury in Thusday's Win
Sean Couturier

Injured Versus Predators
Elias Lindholm

Hurt Against Sabres
Seth Jarvis

Makes Early Exit Thursday
Brock Boeser

Exits Win Early
Jordan Harris

to Miss Two Months After Ankle Surgery
Ilya Mikheyev

a Game-Time Call Thursday
Samuel Ersson

Lands on Injured Reserve
Alexander Romanov

Returns to Action Thursday
Roope Hintz

Still Out Thursday
George Springer

"Strong Possibility" That George Springer Returns in Game 6 of World Series
Matt Duchene

Remains Sidelined Thursday
Martin Necas

Inks Eight-Year Extension With Avalanche
Mathew Barzal

Scratched on Thursday for Disciplinary Reasons
Bryce Miller

Not Expected to Need Elbow Surgery
Washington Nationals

Nationals Finalizing a Deal to Hire Blake Butera as Next Manager
CFB

Arch Manning Listed as Questionable for Vanderbilt Matchup
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Arion Carter Listed as Questionable Ahead of Oklahoma Matchup
Minnesota Twins

Twins Name Derek Shelton as Their New Manager
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Jordyn Tyson Questionable for Iowa State Matchup with Hamstring Injury
George Springer

Not in the Lineup for Game 4 of World Series
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Pulled Early in Game 3 With Side Injury
Baltimore Orioles

Orioles Finalizing Deal to Hire Craig Albernaz as the Next Manager
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Dominates at Martinsville and Advances to the Championship Round
Kyle Larson

Advances to the Championship Round After Top-Five Finish
Ryan Blaney

Falls Short of the Victory and Title Contention at Martinsville
Chase Elliott

Eliminated From 2025 Title Contention Despite Strong Martinsville Run
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Behren Morton Will Start Against Kansas State
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Lane Kiffin Says Money Won't Impact his Decision-Making
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Arch Manning in Concussion Protocol, Misses Practice Monday
Christopher Bell

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Joey Logano

Lack of Championship-Caliber Speed Leads to Elimination
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Last at Martinsville
Denny Hamlin

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Ciryl Gane

Fight With Tom Aspinall Ends In No-Contest
Ciryl Gane

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Virna Jandiroba

Suffers Unanimous-Decision Loss
Mackenzie Dern

Wins Vacant Strawweight Title
Mario Bautista

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Umar Nurmagomedov

Gets Back In The Win Column
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Drops Decision
Alexander Volkov

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Azamat Murzakanov

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Chris Buescher

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Ryan Preece

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Daniel Suarez

May be Worth Rostering in DFS for Martinsville
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon Worth Rostering in DFS for Martinsville This week?

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