X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

Points Leagues Starting Pitchers - Overvalued and Undervalued

As we’ve discussed before, points leagues are a bit of a different animal from the more popular head-to-head and rotisserie formats. One of the most obvious differences between them is how pitchers are valued.

In a points league, the top pitchers routinely outearn the top hitters. Most analysis will tell you to favor bats in roto or H2H, and that’s not wrong; if you’re playing points, though, throw that out the window. That said, not all pitchers are created equal, and some are less valuable than you might expect in this format.

Today, to finish up this series, we're looking at some potential starting pitcher sleepers and busts, or draft targets and avoids in points leagues.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association including Baseball Writer of the Year, Football Writers of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year and many more! Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!

 

Overvalued for Points Leagues

Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays

Stroman is one of only seven starting pitchers who have thrown at least 200 innings in both of the last two seasons, and he just posted a 3.09 ERA. Sounds great! Of course, he is also now at 560 MLB innings with a K/9 barely above 7.00, ran a 1.30 WHIP over the last two years, and last season was the first time he’d won more than 11 games. Also, that tidy 3.09 ERA was partially the resulted of an elevated strand rate. In H2H leagues and rotos without an innings cap, Stroman is a solid guy to have on your roster. In points, he’s a lot less appealing.

Lance McCullers, Houston Astros

McCullers racks up a ton of strikeouts, but he has trouble going deep into games and hasn’t proven he can stay healthy. The 24-year-old has three MLB seasons under his belt, and he has yet to start more than 22 games or exceed 125 innings. A balky back led to two separate stints on the disabled list for McCullers last season, and he’s also dealt with arm injuries as a pro. Despite playing for a contender, McCullers has just 19 major-league wins so far thanks to his inability to provide volume. Until he does, he’ll remain challenging to own, particularly in points leagues.

Michael Fulmer, Detroit Tigers

Fulmer’s modest price tag (he’s just inside the top 200 ADP) is perfectly fine in head-to-head and acceptable in rotisserie. In points leagues, though, he may be best avoided. The team context in Detroit is grim, which makes it hard to believe he’ll improve much upon the 10 wins he contributed last year. He’s also thrown 324 innings at the big-league level and has a 6.9 K/9 and 18.6 K% to show for it. There seems to be a lot of optimism around Fulmer having strikeout upside, but he was never really a big K guy in the minors either. Then, of course, we have to acknowledge that he’s working with a surgically repaired elbow.

 

Undervalued for Points Leagues

Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants

Shark has thrown at least 200 innings in five consecutive seasons entering 2018, which pretty much automatically makes him interesting. He also got his strikeout rate back up to its prior levels last season after a dip in 2015-16, and posted a 3.8% walk rate, easily the lowest of his career. Pounding the zone came at a price, of course, as Samardzija also allowed more home runs than he ever had before. Those bombs were a major contributor to him carrying a 4.42 ERA; the only other qualified starters who ran a 20% K-BB and an ERA above 3.53 were Masahiro Tanaka and Chris Archer. Despite that, he was still a top-30 SP in most points leagues due to the elite K-BB%. Imagine how valuable he could be if he manages to curb the homers a bit.

Ervin Santana, Minnesota Twins

There were just 41 complete games in MLB last season. Santana had five of them, tied with Corey Kluber for the league lead (nobody else had more than two, and only six pitchers even got that far). If your points league still rewards pitchers for going the distance, Santana is easy money; mine does, and he barely finished outside the top 20 starters. Even if not, the veteran has been rather reliable for most of his career, even if he’s thoroughly unexciting. Santana has produced an ERA under 3.50 over 180 or more innings in three of the last five seasons; he ran a 3.95 over 196 innings in 2014 and a 4.00 in the following (injury-shortened) year. In 2016-17, only 10 pitchers bettered Santana in ERA and only 16 had a lower WHIP. A finger injury will cost him the first month of 2018, but he should resume being a sneaky-good asset in points leagues once healthy.

 

More Points Leagues Analysis & Draft Values




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jorge López8 hours ago

Jorge Lopez Agrees To One-Year Deal With Mets
Diontae Johnson9 hours ago

Scores Again In Week 14 Loss
Ezekiel Elliott9 hours ago

Dominant While Earning 29 Touches
D'Onta Foreman9 hours ago

Practices In Full Again
Hunter Henry9 hours ago

Scores Two Touchdowns In Week 14
Bailey Zappe9 hours ago

Throws For Three Touchdowns In Week 14 Win
Harrison Bader10 hours ago

Giants, Padres Interested In Harrison Bader
Justin Jefferson11 hours ago

Gets In Another Full Practice
Ha-Seong Kim11 hours ago

Red Sox Interested In Ha-Seong Kim?
Pete Alonso11 hours ago

Mets, Pete Alonso Haven't Talked Extension
Kareem Hunt11 hours ago

Gets In Limited Practice Session
Juan Soto11 hours ago

Yankees Haven't Had Extension Talks With Juan Soto
Aaron Judge11 hours ago

Toe Injury "A Resolved Issue"
Jamal Murray11 hours ago

Considered Probable For Friday
LeBron James12 hours ago

To Play On Thursday
Malcolm Brogdon12 hours ago

Questionable For Friday's Game
Deandre Ayton12 hours ago

Unlikely To Suit Up Friday
Jalen Duren12 hours ago

Will Miss Next Two Weeks
Jordan Clarkson12 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Raheem Mostert12 hours ago

Sits Out On Thursday
Tyreek Hill12 hours ago

Picks Up DNP In First Practice
Geno Smith13 hours ago

Added To Injury Report With Groin Issue
Zach Charbonnet13 hours ago

Kenneth Walker III, Zach Charbonnet Limited Thursday
Tyler Higbee13 hours ago

In Danger Of Missing Week 14
Puka Nacua13 hours ago

Practices Without Limitations Thursday
DeVante Parker13 hours ago

Ruled Out, JuJu Smith-Schuster Active Thursday
Najee Harris13 hours ago

Officially Active Thursday Night
Markelle Fultz13 hours ago

Wendell Carter Jr., Markelle Fultz Remain Out Friday
Mark Williams13 hours ago

Listed As Questionable Friday
Trae Young13 hours ago

Uncertain For Friday With Illness
Taysom Hill14 hours ago

Absent Again On Thursday
Jalen Duren14 hours ago

Out With Ankle Sprain Friday
Chris Olave14 hours ago

Rashid Shaheed Miss Thursday's Practice
Derek Carr14 hours ago

Practices Again Thursday
Tyler Herro14 hours ago

No Return For Tyler Herro Against Cavaliers
Lauri Markkanen14 hours ago

Back At Thursday's Practice
Kristaps Porzingis14 hours ago

Likely To Return Against Knicks
Bam Adebayo14 hours ago

Still Out With Bruised Hip
Dalton Schultz14 hours ago

Downgraded At Thursday's Practice
Bradley Beal14 hours ago

Grayson Allen Out Friday
Dallas Goedert15 hours ago

Another Full Practice For Dallas Goedert
Derrick Henry15 hours ago

Should Be Good To Go For Week 14
Kevin Durant16 hours ago

Sitting Out Against Kings
Malcolm Brogdon17 hours ago

Held Scoreless Before Departing
Jalen Duren17 hours ago

Reaches Double-Double Before Exiting
Zach LaVine17 hours ago

Gets PRP Injection Amid Recovery
Jordan Hicks18 hours ago

Being Eyed By Yankees
Evgeny Kuznetsov21 hours ago

Expected To Return To Lineup Thursday
DET21 hours ago

Patrick Kane Ready For Red Wings Debut On Thursday
Zach Hyman21 hours ago

Stays Hot With Second Hat Trick
Nick Senzel21 hours ago

Heads To Nationals
Evan Rodrigues21 hours ago

Matches Career High With Four Points
Jeimer Candelario21 hours ago

Reds Agree With Jeimer Candelario
Victor Hedman22 hours ago

Notches Two Assists Wednesday
John Klingberg22 hours ago

Out For Season
Luka Doncic22 hours ago

Rolls To 40-Point Triple-Double
Joel Embiid22 hours ago

Feasts Against The Wizards
San Diego Padres1 day ago

Jung Hoo Lee High On Padres' Wish List
Eduardo Rodriguez1 day ago

Agrees To Four-Year Deal With Diamondbacks
Kyle Higashioka1 day ago

Padres Acquire Michael King, Kyle Higashioka, Others From Yankees
Trent Grisham1 day ago

Yankees Complete Trade To Acquire Juan Soto, Trent Grisham
Eduardo Rodriguez1 day ago

Diamondbacks Are Finalists To Land Eduardo Rodriguez
Dylan Cease1 day ago

White Sox "Pulling Back" On Dylan Cease Trade Talks?
Aaron Judge2 days ago

Could Be Regular Center Fielder
New York Yankees2 days ago

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Expected To Meet With Yankees Monday
Dylan Cease2 days ago

White Sox Have High Asking Price For Dylan Cease
Trent Grisham2 days ago

Expected To Be Shipped To Yankees
Bryce Harper2 days ago

Hoping To Discuss Another Long-Term Deal
Craig Kimbrel2 days ago

Orioles Agree To One-Year Deal
Nathan MacKinnon2 days ago

Extends Scoring Streak With Three-Point Effort
Tomas Hertl2 days ago

Posts Sixth Career Hat Trick
Vladimir Tarasenko2 days ago

Shines In Win Over Rangers
J.T. Miller2 days ago

Grabs Three Points In Loss Versus New Jersey
Jack Hughes2 days ago

Continues Tear Versus Canucks
Matt Boldy2 days ago

Notches Three Points In Tuesday's Win
Connor Ingram3 days ago

Takes Winning Streak To Five Games With Second Shutout
Clayton Keller3 days ago

Records Hat Trick Of Assists
Travis Konecny3 days ago

Logs Two Assists In Monday's Win
Anthony Cirelli3 days ago

Nets Two Goals As Tampa Bay Ends Slide
Andrei Vasilevskiy3 days ago

Bounces Back In Style On Monday
Nikolaj Ehlers3 days ago

Takes Down Hurricanes
Beneil Dariush4 days ago

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss At UFC Austin
Beneil Dariush4 days ago

Arman Tsarukyan Knocks Out Beneil Dariush In 64 Seconds
Jalin Turner4 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Bobby Green4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out In The First Round
Punahele Soriano4 days ago

Dustin Stoltzfus Submits Punahele Soriano
Punahele Soriano4 days ago

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Nathan MacKinnon4 days ago

Pushes Point Streak To Eight Games
Quinton Byfield4 days ago

Pots Two Goals Against Colorado
Alex Tuch4 days ago

Exits With Injury
Clay Guida5 days ago

Falls To .500 In The UFC
Joaquim Silva5 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Austin
Kelvin Gastelum5 days ago

Submitted In Welterweight Return
Sean Brady5 days ago

Returns To Win Column
Rob Font5 days ago

1-4 In Last Five Fights After Loss At UFC Austin
Deiveson Figueiredo5 days ago

Wins Bantamweight Debut

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP