X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Points League Outfielders: Overvalued and Undervalued

By Keith Allison on Flickr [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Kyle Bishop looks at six outfielders (OF) as 2017 points leagues sleepers and busts. Fantasy baseball value in points leagues differs from standard formats.

As we’ve discussed, points leagues are a bit of a different animal from the more popular head-to-head and rotisserie formats. One of the easiest and best ways to ensure that you’re making a smooth transition between these disparate styles is to identify players whose values change most.

Today we're looking at some potential outfield sleepers and busts, or draft targets and avoids in points leagues.

Let's get to it.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Overvalued for Points Leagues

Mark Trumbo, Baltimore Orioles

Trumbo launched a league-leading 47 home runs in 2016. That’s more than he’d hit in the previous two seasons combined. His prior career best was 34; by the All-Star break, he had 28. You get the idea. Setting aside the likely regression in power, though, there are still reasons to avoid Trumbo in points leagues. The veteran strikes out a lot and has never been a great on-base guy, with a high water mark of .317 back in 2012. That was the same year he hit .268, also a career high. Trumbo’s production also cratered in the second half last season. He kept hitting homers, but everything else dried up, as he managed a middling .214/.284/.470 line.

 

Matt Kemp, Atlanta Braves

Kemp has been a reliable producer over the last three seasons, averaging a .273-82-28-99-7 line. He’s entering his age-33 season, however, and there are some troubling trends in his batted ball data. His BABIP has declined every season since his monster 2011 campaign, and both his walk rate and contact quality have been moving in the wrong direction for a couple of years now. Kemp has posted OBPs of .312 and .304 the last two seasons, taking a chunk out of his value. He’ll lose more still if he suffers any pullback on the power he flashed last season – it was just the second time in his career that he surpassed 30 homers.

 

Justin Upton, Detroit Tigers

Upton’s first season in the Motor City, and the American League, got off to a rocky start. Through August 20, he was hitting a putrid .228/.283/.374 with 13 home runs and a 30% strikeout rate. Naturally, from then on he slashed .309/.397/.765 with 18 homers, trimming the whiffs and nearly doubling his walk rate. In the process, he probably won a lot of leagues for owners who either bought low or exercised inhuman patience. Ultimately, his end of season numbers wound up about where they usually do, but he was even streakier than usual in getting there.

Upton is a quality outfielder but a frustrating and high-maintenance asset. That’s without acknowledging that he just posted the worst plate discipline metrics of his career, set a career high in infield fly rate, and has now seen his OBP decline every season since 2011.

 

Undervalued for Points Leagues

Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays

Fantasy owners’ reluctance to rely on a 36 year old coming off his third injury-plagued season in the last five years is understandable. This is, however, Joey Bats we’re talking about. Even a down year for him is better than most. Despite dealing with turf toe and knee problems, Bautista still hit 22 homers and totaled 137 R+RBI in 112 games. While it was his worst season since his 2010 breakout, he remained a well above average hitter. His plate discipline was typically excellent, and his batted ball data doesn’t portend doom as he remained among the league leaders in exit velocity and Hard%. Time will eventually catch up to Bautista, but he should still be plenty valuable in 2017.

 

Adam Eaton, Chicago White Sox

Eaton’s last two seasons have been virtually identical by most measures. That level of consistency has value. Still just 28, the veteran’s plate discipline and contact data hint at a bit more upside. While his new home park is tougher on lefties than Chicago’s, he’s moving to a much better lineup. With some combination of Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner, and Anthony Rendon around him, Eaton could easily top 100 runs for the first time in his career and get a boost to his RBI total as well. He’s posted identical .362 OBPs in each of the last three years, and hit .290 over that span.

 

Kole Calhoun, Los Angeles Angels

Calhoun seems pretty under-appreciated for a guy who ranks 16th among outfielders in FanGraphs WAR over the last three years. He has averaged 20 homers and just under 90 runs scored over that span to go along with a passable average. Last season, Calhoun managed to chop over six points off his K% while also posting a career best walk rate of 10 percent. In an Angels lineup that should outperform most peoples’ expectations, a .270-90-20-80-5 season seems attainable. Sexy? No. But Calhoun is a classic glue guy– owners who retain his services aren’t likely to regret it.

 

 

More Points Leagues Analysis & Draft Values




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Travis Etienne Jr.

Needs to Bounce Back in 2025
Wan'Dale Robinson

Wants More Downfield Opportunities this Season
Quinshon Judkins

Arrested on Saturday for Battery and Domestic Violence
Terry McLaurin

Could be a Holdout at Training Camp
Roger McCreary

a Candidate for a Contract Extension?
Max Fried

Exits Start With Blister
Mike Evans

Buccaneers Could Have Difficult Time Retaining Mike Evans
Charles Cross

Could Sign Extension Before Training Camp
Xavier Restrepo

One to Watch Going into Training Camp
Calvin Ridley

Appears Re-Energized
Mark Andrews

Still a Key Piece in Ravens Offense
Ndamukong Suh

Officially Announces his Retirement
Jaylen Waddle

Motivated After Disappointing Season
Tre Harris

Still Unsigned
Hunter Dobbins

to Miss Rest of Season With Torn ACL
Nolan Arenado

Held Out of Lineup on Saturday
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Carlos Correa

Sitting on Saturday
Austin Riley

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Nolan Arenado

Exits Friday's Contest With Sprained Finger
Jake Burger

Expects to Play on Saturday
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Wyatt Langford

Records Four-Hit Night
Cal Raleigh

Homers Twice, Drives in Five
Cody Bellinger

Swats Three Homers in Victory
Jake Burger

Leaves With Quad Discomfort on Friday
Carlos Correa

Exits Game With Mild Ankle Sprain
Edward Cabrera

Dealing with Posterior Elbow Discomfort
Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
Minnesota Vikings

Josh Metellus, Vikings Have Mutual Interest in Extension
Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF