June 15, 2025
John Hunter Nemechek of Legacy Motor Club qualified 32nd for this week's Viva Mexico 250 at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez. This will mark the fourth road course race in a row where Nemechek will start outside of the top 30. In eight previous road course events, Nemechek collected positive place differential five times and never finished better than 21st. After 15 races this season, Nemechek has six top-20 finishes and an average finish of 20.9, with his last top-20 coming back at Kansas in May. In first practice, Nemechek ranked 29th in five consecutive lap averages, while he ranked 25th in five consecutive lap averages in final practice. Based on his low salary of $5,200 on DraftKings, Nemechek is a playable driver for DFS with some small upside. Still, considering the other options available, he should not be a priority to recommend, especially when his overall road course history in the Cup Series has been somewhat underwhelming.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
June 15, 2025
Ross Chastain's speed on road courses has been inconsistent, just as Trackhouse Racing's speed tends to be generally, but Chastain has been fast this weekend and it is likely Trackhouse is putting greater emphasis on this race since it is the first NASCAR Cup Series race at Mexico, where Chastain's Mexican teammate has his first home race after winning Saturday's Xfinity Series race. However, Chastain is better in general, so if Trackhouse puts more effort into this race because of Daniel Suárez, Chastain will likely benefit. In addition to qualifying third, he also posted two of the three fastest laps in practice and he has previously won on another F1 venue at Circuit of the Americas and dominated last year's Watkins Glen race. Since he qualified well for once, he could potentially dominate the race. The problem is that pole-sitter Shane van Gisbergen will probably dominate, which means you likely have more to lose from starting Chastain since he qualified so well.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 15, 2025
Kyle Busch is one of the few NASCAR Cup Series drivers who previously competed at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in the 2000s when the track held races in what was then the Busch Series and Nationwide Series. He won the last race there in 2008 before the track was removed from the schedule for 17 years. Since his ex-teammate Denny Hamlin isn't racing, Busch and yesterday's winner Daniel Suárez are the only past Mexico City winners entered. When you consider that Busch also led the most laps at Circuit of the Americas earlier this season, that could give him an edge since it seems like the road courses and drafting tracks are the only tracks where he still has speed. Although he only qualified 11th, his recent road course success and past experience here suggest this might be one of his last good shots to win and lock himself into the playoffs, but recent history suggests he probably won't.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 15, 2025
Ryan Preece shockingly qualified second for Sunday's race at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, giving him only his third front-row start on speed. Needless to say, this was very surprising since Preece had only ever posted two top-10 finishes in 22 road-course starts -- both ninth-place finishes at the Daytona road course in 2021 and Watkins Glen last year. Preece has run better pretty much everywhere this year than he ever has before, and even though he's not a noted road racer, Preece's successful modified experience could have helped him adapt to the changing track conditions more quickly than other drivers. He did take the lead from Ross Chastain at Circuit of the Americas in the rain, so if it rains on Sunday, he might have more staying power than expected. However, since he has still never finished better than third in a race, he's essentially guaranteed to lose positions and therefore not be a good choice for DFS.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 15, 2025
Although Austin Cindric has a reputation as a road course expert in the NASCAR Cup Series, he's really overrated on this track type in recent years. Although he does have a better average finish on road and street courses than on any other track type, he has fallen off on these tracks somewhat in recent years. Five of his nine top tens on road and street courses came in 2021 and 2022, while in the 2.5 years since, he has only had four so he definitely hasn't run as well on road courses lately. His best road courses seemed to be the infield road courses (particularly Indianapolis) and now all of those are off the schedule except for Charlotte. He doesn't seem to be as good on the purpose-built road courses. He only qualified 20th at Mexico City and he has improved in general this year even if his road course results have declined. He should likely be avoided for DFS when better road racers qualified worse.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 15, 2025
Despite Bubba Wallace's reputation as a lousy road racer and Tyler Reddick's reputation as a great one, Wallace qualified 25th and only three spots behind Reddick for Sunday's event. When you consider that Wallace is having his best season in general, there is likely some value here for place-differential points considering how poorly Wallace qualified, but the fact that Reddick was also slow suggests that Wallace might need to benefit from strategy, carnage, or attrition to get a good finish, particularly since all three of his top-10 finishes came on infield road courses and he seems to struggle more on the purpose-built ones. Wallace has some value, but it's hard to consider starting him when Christopher Bell and William Byron -- the drivers who battled for the win at Austin -- qualified even worse.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 15, 2025
It's hard to tell which NASCAR races Team Penske is emphasizing these days. While previous years suggested that Joey Logano and the No. 22 were intentionally ignoring races once they locked into the playoffs to focus exclusively on winning the Las Vegas and Phoenix playoff races, they seem to have switched that up this year as all three Penske drivers have remained fast even after winning, which none of the Penske drivers except for Ryan Blaney could say last year. Logano still seems to alternate between good and mediocre races and has become incredibly hard to predict. He does have a knack for winning at new tracks - he won both the first Bristol dirt race and the first Nashville race - but his road course record also seems to alternate between good and bad races with this car. Logano is probably too inconsistent to start for DFS when considering he qualified ninth.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 15, 2025
Although Brad Keselowski has never been a very good road racer aside from a few years at Watkins Glen, he is one of the few drivers in the field who has past experience at Mexico City, where he finished eighth in 2008 before he even won his first NASCAR Cup Series race. Sunday's race arguably bookends his career in a way, and it wouldn't be shocking if he never wins a race again despite the speed he did show at Kansas. Keselowski's past experience likely won't help him much since that race was 17 years ago with an entirely different chassis and he's generally been slower than his teammates Chris Buescher and Ryan Preece, even on ovals. On road courses, where he wasn't very strong even in his heyday, he's struggled even worse with no top-10 finishes since 2022. Despite his past experience and 30th-place qualifying run, starting Keselowski would be a big risk.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 15, 2025
After Denny Hamlin withdrew from Sunday's race at Mexico City after the birth of his son on Thursday, Ryan Truex was tapped to drive Hamlin's No. 11 car. After previously winning three NASCAR Xfinity Series races for Joe Gibbs Racing in 2023 and 2024, this marks his first start in the Cup Series since his partial 2014 rookie season and his first race in the Cup Series in competitive equipment. Unfortunately, he has never raced a Next Gen car before, and since it takes drivers longer to learn this chassis and Truex is not a particularly noted road racer, he qualified 36th for Sunday's event, only beating Katherine Legge. Truex only earned a single top-five finish on a road course in the Xfinity Series, finishing fifth at Mid-Ohio nearly seven years ago, so fantasy managers shouldn't expect much.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 15, 2025
Although Legacy Motor Club seems to be improving a little after Erik Jones recovered from his injury and the No. 43 team replaced David Elenz and Ben Beshore, the team still isn't very fast. Jones's road course performances were decent when he was driving for Joe Gibbs Racing with the Gen 6 chassis, but his road course performances with the Next Gen car have generally not been good. Although he did earn two top tens on road courses in his underrated 2022 season, he hasn't on any of his road or street courses since. While Legacy now seems to have intermediate speed again, it's hard to envision them having sustainable road course speed, even though Jones qualified 14th, better than he usually does. The fact that he also qualified better than he usually does means he will likely score negative Place Differential points and won't have much DFS value as a result.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 15, 2025
Noah Gragson qualified 35th for Sunday's Mexico City race. This marks his worst starting position in over a year, and he only outqualified Ryan Truex and Katherine Legge, two drivers with next to no experience with the Next Gen chassis. Having said that, Front Row Motorsports clearly has some speed, as Gragson's teammate Todd Gilliland impressively qualified seventh and posted the fastest lap in practice. Gragson did earn his first top-10 finish on a road course in the NASCAR Cup Series this year at Austin, the other Formula One track on the NASCAR schedule, so he seems like a decent long-shot option for this race, especially since he only costs $6,200 in DFS. However, when so many perennial road-course contenders like Christopher Bell, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, and Chris Buescher also qualified poorly, Gragson is probably only worth starting to save money elsewhere.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 15, 2025
Although Ricky Stenhouse Jr. was still in the playoffs a couple weeks ago more because he didn't crash than because he actually ran well, he will likely struggle and completely fall out of the playoff picture on the road-course-heavy summer stretch. In 41 road-course starts, Stenhouse only earned a single top-10 finish at Austin in 2023, although he did earn his best finish on a non-oval at the Chicago street race last year when he finished sixth. Road courses are clearly Stenhouse's worst track type, as he has his worst average finish of 22.2 and has only ever led three laps on those tracks, and his 33rd-place starting position is consistent with that. Although he's starting poorly enough and he's cheap enough to possibly consider him as a punt option for DFS, there are still too many better choices.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 15, 2025
Not only did Riley Herbst post his best starting position of the season with a 15th-place qualifying run at Mexico City, he shockingly also outqualified both of his 23XI Racing teammates, including perennial road course master Tyler Reddick. Although that seems surprising on the surface since road courses weren't his strongest track type in the Xfinity Series by any means, it's possible some of his experience racing in the Baja 1000 could've carried over here. However, his past NASCAR road course races do not suggest he will be fast enough to maintain that speed and he will likely tank through the field, making him one of the least valuable drivers for DFS play.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 15, 2025
Although it's hard to imagine Cody Ware seriously contending anywhere, if there's a place he could, it might be a track like Mexico City. Ware does have more road racing experience than many of the NASCAR Cup Series drivers and even won the 2019-20 Asian Le Mans Series championship in the LMP2 Am class with Gustas Grinbergas, although admittedly, Rick Ware Racing entered the only two full-time cars in that class. Ware has shown bursts of speed on road courses when it rained and there was a lot of rain at Mexico City leading up to this event. With the frequency of cautions, it's unlikely he'll be lapped on track if he stays out of trouble so if RWR tries some wild strategy and it rains, maybe Ware could actually finish much better than his 34th place starting position, but that's still too many maybes to make starting him a serious consideration.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
June 15, 2025
Victory lane for Sunday's Viva Mexico 250 at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico City will likely go through Shane van Gisbergen. The Trackhouse Racing driver is the heavy favorite to win this weekend's race according to all sportsbooks, and rightfully so: the No. 88 Chevrolet had the most consistent speed during practice this weekend and SVG also put down the fastest lap in qualifying, which means he will lead the field to the green on race day. Shane is a super elite road course racer and has a Cup Series victory at the Chicago Street Course. He also finished sixth at COTA earlier this season and seventh and second at the Charlotte Roval and Watkins Glen (respectively) last season. He will be the one to beat this weekend in Mexico.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: ifantasyrace
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