March 16, 2025
RFK Racing's Ryan Preece obtained a starting position of 12th for this week's race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the Pennzoil 400. Preece's starting position will be the highest ever of his Cup career at Las Vegas. In 10 Cup starts in his career at Vegas, Preece has two top-20 finishes. The No. 60 Ford driver also nabbed positive Place Differential in all four of his appearances in the Next-Gen car since 2022. Through four races this year, Preece has two top-20 finishes, with his 15th-place finish in last week's race at Phoenix being his best of the season yet. In practice, Preece ranked 28th in overall lap averages while displaying top-20 speeds in the 20 and 25 consecutive lap average categories. Compared to most in his salary range ($6,200 on DraftKings), Preece offers little upside based on his starting position. Preece can only be worth recommending for tournament games, but his practice speeds suggest that he may not be worth the gamble. Fantasy players are recommended to fade Preece this week.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
March 16, 2025
Even though Joey Logano is very expensive at $9,500, last fall's Las Vegas winner seems potentially poised to lead early and often since he qualified second directly outside Michael McDowell. Considering he is a vastly better intermediate driver and one of Las Vegas' foremost masters, he stands a good chance of earning a lot of points for leading and fastest laps, but he's still had a significant downturn in speed as his speed percentiles of 59.42 and 60.62 the last two years were his slowest ever as a Penske driver, and Ryan Blaney is routinely faster of late. However, he definitely seems faster than he was last year, and despite no top-10 finishes, he already has half of last year's laps-led total after four races. If you think Logano is going to dominate the race, he's a very valuable DFS option. But if you don't, he becomes avoidable.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 16, 2025
Michael McDowell pulled a big surprise by delivering Spire Motorsports' first pole position for Sunday's Pennzoil 400, while his teammates Carson Hocevar and Justin Haley only qualified 25th and 33rd, respectively. Although McDowell won the most poles last year, that came for a Front Row Motorsports team that was dominating on drafting tracks, and one does not normally expect him to do much on intermediates. Since he only costs $6,100, he might be a tempting DFS selection if you think he's going to hold the lead and score a lot of lap-leader points, but it seems far more likely that outside pole-sitter Joey Logano will pass him immediately, so he will likely lose more points based on place differential than he gains from leading.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 16, 2025
Austin Cindric tends to qualify well on flat intermediates, and Las Vegas is no exception, as he has now qualified third here for the third time, including three of the last four winter Las Vegas races. However, he also has a history of sliding back through the pack when he qualifies well on an intermediate and he has lost positions in every Las Vegas start, except for the 2023 winter race, when he started ninth and finished sixth, but he ran significantly worse in that race since his average running position was 18th. Despite having four top-10 qualifying runs at Las Vegas, he has never had an ARP better than 13th in six previous starts, so starting from third, he is almost certain to lose positions. While he could lead a few laps in the beginning, there's not enough value to start him, even at $7,200.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 16, 2025
Chase Briscoe was typically very slow in his previous races at Las Vegas, with a fourth place in the 2022 fall event serving as his sole highlight, but even in that race he only had an average running position of 17th. Admittedly, a large part of that was the fact that the Stewart-Haas Racing cars tended to badly struggle on intermediates after 2020. Now Briscoe is driving for a Joe Gibbs Racing team that is traditionally much faster on them, but it didn't seem to help much as he still qualified only 24th and perhaps surprisingly, none of the JGR cars placed in the top ten. Briscoe is one of the biggest question marks for this race since he'll likely run better for JGR than SHR in theory but James Small isn't a great crew chief and bad luck continues to follow the No. 19 car whever it goes. Briscoe is likely too overpriced at $8,500 to be very valuable.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 16, 2025
After looking like he would inevitably win his first NASCAR Cup Series race soon in the first half of last year, Ty Gibbs has had an inexplicable falloff. He has only posted a single top ten in the last 15 races despite having theoretically championship-caliber Joe Gibbs Racing equipment and it's not like he's even been running well and is merely unlucky. In the last seven races, his best average running position is 21st and he qualified 29th yesterday. His weekend went from bad to worse when he flipped his High Limit sprint car last night. Considering how dominant Gibbs's teammate Christopher Bell was in last fall's race here, Gibbs should be good for Place Differential in theory, but since he seems to be running badly on a regular basis now and somewhat unlucky, he's probably not a top-tier option.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 16, 2025
Even though Shane van Gisbergen's teammate Ross Chastain was the fastest driver in Saturday's practice at Las Vegas, don't expect SVG to utilize his Trackhouse Racing cars to the same extent. Although it might be tempting to draft him because he is starting 28th and because of Chastain's speed, he is still a rookie who has only raced at this track once before in the Cup Series, finishing 29th in last fall's event. He didn't have much experience there in the Xfinity Series, either, as he had mechanical DNFs in both Las Vegas races last year before they were half over. It takes a while for even the world's best drivers to figure out the Next Gen car, and even though he is one of the world's best drivers, he isn't yet on ovals. It is probably advisable to stay away for DFS lineups.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 16, 2025
Although Noah Gragson crashed out last week at Phoenix when he seemed to be the best underdog DFS choice, the hometown native seems to have a little value at Las Vegas since last year he drove from 30th to sixth on a track type where the Stewart-Haas Racing cars usually struggle. However, even though he finished far ahead of his fellow SHR cars, his average running position of 17th suggests he was very lucky and won't repeat that performance. Additionally, he qualified a lot better this time (21st) for a Front Row Motorsports team generally regarded as worse, although his teammate Zane Smith did qualify in the top 10. Gragson probably isn't one of your best options this time, but at $6,900, he's a relatively cheap option who might be suitable to fill a DFS lineup.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 16, 2025
Austin Dillon has a decent record at Las Vegas, even though he hardly ever leads there. In 19 starts, he has finished in the top twenty 14 times and has been reliably consistent on a very low level, which suggests he will probably improve somewhat from his 22nd place starting position. However, he has only led 12 laps there (all before the advent of the Next Gen car), so it seems highly improbable that he will score much in the way of points for leading laps or fastest laps. Furthermore, Justin Alexander isn't his crew chief this year and he always runs worse without him than with him. He'll probably gain a couple positions, but not enough to make him a valuable pick for DFS especially since he costs closer to $7,000 than $6,000.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 16, 2025
Josh Berry qualifying well is starting to become rather routine, and his seventh-place starting position for Sunday's race at Las Vegas is consistent with that. However, he tends to be very slow on unrestricted intermediate tracks, and he only finished 20th and 24th in last year's Las Vegas races. Admittedly, he was a rookie, but the track hasn't really suited him to begin with -- in his Hendrick Motorsports debut at Las Vegas two years ago, he only finished 29th, while his three regular teammates swept the top three. For all the speed Berry had at Atlanta and Phoenix, he's almost guaranteed to lose positions here, making him clearly one of the worst options unless you think he'll lead laps in Stage 1 when most of the better drivers are starting behind him. Given his recent form, it's certainly not inconceivable, but don't bet on it.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 16, 2025
In a puzzling qualifying session, Michael McDowell won the pole while his Spire Motorsports teammates Carson Hocevar and Justin Haley only qualified 25th and 33rd, respectively. Nonetheless, based on qualifying, Spire has seemed to have an uptick in speed this year and Spire at least is a Hendrick Motorsports satellite at a track where HMS frequently dominates. Even though Haley has generally underachieved since he took over the No. 7 Spire car late last year, it seems he likely has a lot of value since he earned top-20 finishes in four of the five Next Gen-era races in which he didn't have a Rick Ware car. In three of those, he had top-20 average running positions. When you also consider that Corey LaJoie had a 13th-place ARP last year, Haley is likely one of the best DFS underdog plays.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 16, 2025
Although Cole Custer's career-defining moment in the Cup Series came when he made a four-wide pass for the win as a rookie at Kentucky Speedway in 2020 and Las Vegas is likewise a flat 1.5-mile track, he hasn't been too strong at Las Vegas, as his best finish is 16th and he has never led a lap there. He has also only posted an average running position of better than 25th once. To some extent, Stewart-Haas Racing really struggled on intermediates after his rookie season, so this isn't surprising, but even though Custer was solid on this track type in the Xfinity Series, the fact that Haas has now dropped from four cars to one suggests that they probably aren't very likely to run well on intermediates where horsepower is paramount. Custer might be worth a slight look if you think he'll have speed since he only costs $5,300 and is starting 26th, but it seems unlikely he will have speed.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 16, 2025
Cody Ware qualified 35th for Sunday's race at Las Vegas. After missing the fall 2023 and winter 2024 races at Las Vegas after his arrest and suspension by NASCAR, he earned a career-best finish at the track when he finished 21st, and it wasn't that unrepresentative of a result as his average running position of 24th matched his best on a non-drafting oval in his career. Having said that, even though he is the cheapest DFS driver on DraftKings at $5,000, he is still unlikely to gain enough positions in terms of place differential to be a worthwhile pick to start for DFS lineups.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 16, 2025
Keep an eye on Kyle Busch in this weekend's Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Richard Childress Racing has had better-than-expected speed to start out the 2025 season, and "Rowdy" has an excellent track record at his home venue. In six of the last nine races at this track, Busch has finished sixth or better, so the talent is definitely there if his equipment is up to par. The No. 8 Chevrolet wasn't overly competitive in the two Las Vegas races last year--Busch finished 26th and 13th--but, as mentioned before, the RCR Chevrolets could have more speed this time around. Busch also finished eighth at Kansas last season, which is the sister track to Las Vegas. This weekend, the No. 8 Chevrolet was 11th-fastest in practice. Kyle will roll off the starting grid from fourth-place when the Pennzoil 400 goes green on Sunday. He could end up leading some laps early and makes for an interesting tournament play in DFS contests on DraftKings.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: ifantasyrace
March 16, 2025
Don't sleep on Alex Bowman this weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Statistically, this has been one of the best tracks on the schedule for Bowman since the Next Gen car was introduced, as he has an average finish of 12.4 here over the last five races and an average driver rating of 98.5. Including his win here in Sin City back in 2022, Bowman finished third here in 2023 and ended up finishing fifth in the fall Playoff race last October. Additionally, the Hendrick Motorsports driver has been strong at Kansas Speedway as well, which is the sister track to Las Vegas. Over at Kansas, Bowman has five straight top-10 finishes. This weekend, the No. 48 Chevrolet was among the fastest in practice when it came to long-run lap averages, and Bowman qualified sixth for Sunday's Pennzoil 400. He's a risky tournament/pivot option in DFS contests at $8,000 on DraftKings.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: ifantasyrace
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