July 20, 2025
William Byron has never won at Dover before, as his best finishes here have been a trio of fourth-place showings. However, he has also not lacked for speed, as he has led 250 laps in the last four races, including 229 in the last two. In the 2023 race, he made the first two passes for the lead and he also made another in last year's race. He feels more suitable on this track type than the four drivers starting in front of him, with the possible exception of Chase Elliott, so he could easily be one of the most likely drivers to dominate the race. However, at $10,500, he is also mighty expensive for a driver who has rarely finished better than he is starting on Sunday. Although he could easily win, starting either Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, or Kyle Larson seem like safer bets since they are starting worse in the field. Byron is still nonetheless one of the strongest options.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
July 20, 2025
Although 23XI Racing stands to lose a lot of money from the revocation of their charter, they could easily make some of it back if Tyler Reddick wins NASCAR's $1,000,000 In-Season Challenge, and he's certainly the favorite since he's the only likely playoff-bound driver remaining in the Final Four. However, despite being the only driver to earn top ten finishes in all three races in the bracket, he has curiously lacked speed compared to the last three seasons and is often tending to finish better than he runs, which is uncharacteristic of him. That lack of speed is not inspiring since he has usually lacked speed on shorter pave ovals as well and at Dover, he's never finished better than 7th, which means he's likely to lose spots from his 4th-place starting position. The No. 45 team will be intensely motivated to advance in the bracket and make some of their money back, but Reddick's speed has been shaky enough to make him a very risky option.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
July 20, 2025
After back-to-back top-10 finishes on road/street courses at Chicago and Sonoma, Ty Gibbs is now somewhat alive to point his way into the NASCAR playoffs and he has also made the semifinal of NASCAR's In-Season Challenge, where he will face Tyler Reddick. Although Gibbs is nowhere near as good on any other track type as he is on road courses, he hasn't been terrible at Dover, as he finished 13th and 10th in his first two starts and improved from his starting position in both races. Now starting ninth at a track where Joe Gibbs Racing could very well dominate, he might be poised to upset Reddick, who he did beat by a single position last year. He's probably not worth starting because his starting position is too good at a track where he will likely finish worse, but he might be worth a bet in the bracket since Reddick's speed has been shakier than Gibbs' lately.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
July 20, 2025
Dover has been one of Joey Logano's worst tracks throughout his career as he has never finished better than third and he has only ever led 41 laps here. One thing that can be said for him here is that he usually gets a finish, but he isn't a great option for DFS play today because he is starting 8th and is likely to finish worse than that, particularly in a year where he keeps making stupid mistakes and finishes worse than he runs. Starting where he is, he's likely only valuable if he either leads a lot of laps or gets a lot of fastest laps, but he probably won't be near enough to the front to do either of those things. He's by no means one of the worst options for DFS play, but he isn't a great one.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
July 20, 2025
Although Kyle Busch has been substantially worse at most tracks since he switched from Joe Gibbs Racing to Richard Childress Racing, Dover Motor Speedway is one of the main exceptions. For how much he has lacked speed elsewhere, Busch actually won poles here in each of his last two starts and he's led a combined 192 laps in the last three Next Gen races, which is not typical for him of any track at late. Busch doesn't necessarily need to win to make the playoffs since he is only 37 points behind a collapsing Bubba Wallace, but he is probably intensely motivated to end his winless streak at a time when many of the top drivers seem to be ignoring the current races to prepare for the playoffs. Starting Busch is a high-volatility option anywhere these days, and since he's starting 10th it's a big risk, but since it's conceivable he could dominate here (unlike most tracks) it might be a risk worth taking.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
July 20, 2025
John Hunter Nemechek has slight value for Sunday's race at Dover because he starts poorly (28th), he has gained positions in all three of his previous starts here, and he's been reliably consistent in finishing either 20th or 24th in all three of his starts in '20 and '24. After a long litany of crashes those two years, he's actually kept it somewhat clean this year, but he doesn't have much speed. You can likely count on him to finish better than his starting position, but it probably won't be by enough to make him one of the best options. Nonetheless, he might be worth rostering at $5,700 if you want to start more of the higher-dollar options. Given his usual performance here, it seems very unlikely that Nemechek will lose his round in the In-Season Challenge to Ty Dillon and he will likely advance to the finals against one of the other Tylers.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
July 20, 2025
Michael McDowell is one of the absolute worst options for DFS consideration on Sunday as he starts seventh at Dover, a track where he has never finished better than 17th. This means he is almost certain to lose positions and score extremely few DFS points as a result. His previous best starting position of eighth came in last year's race, where he had a hub failure and finished next-to-last. That does not inspire confidence, although admittedly that was a mechanical failure for a different team. Starting where McDowell is, he's only really valuable if he leads laps or sets a lot of fastest laps, which does not seem likely for him at a track where he's only led nine laps. McDowell is a must to avoid.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
July 20, 2025
Ever since Roger Penske fired Tim Cindric as Team Penske President in the wake of their Indy 500 qualifying cheating scandal, Tim's son Austin has steadily faded to his typical mediocrity. That could just be a coincidence as plenty of other teams seem to be giving up on the regular season races once they win their way into the playoffs, as Cindric did at Talladega. Furthermore, Cindric has only really been fast lately on drafting tracks and intermediates and the series has pivoted away from those tracks in recent months. As a result, don't count on Cindric turning it around at Dover, a track which is not exactly his metier. Cindric's 26th-place starting position is his worst ever at a track where he has never finished better than 15th. He starts poorly enough that he could have value, but it's more likely that his recent lack of performance except on two track types will override that.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
July 20, 2025
Erik Jones' chances of getting into the playoffs are likely over after two typically subpar road-course runs back-to-back, but now as NASCAR returns to the ovals, Jones might get back into the groove as he had six straight finishes of 17th or better on ovals before the road-course swing. Although he typically does better on the larger superspeedways than the shorter ones, Jones has been reliably consistent at Dover with no finishes of worse than 22nd, even if he's never been much of a contender for the lead and has never led a lap at the track. His first two top-10 finishes came in his Joe Gibbs Racing years, but he did finish 10th in his strong underdog 2022 season, and this is the best he's been since then. Since he starts 27th thanks to his poor road-course performances, worse than he ever has here, he has a lot of value, especially because he only costs $6,300 in DFS.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
July 20, 2025
Zane Smith starts 30th for Sunday's race at Dover, smack dab in between his Front Row Motorsports teammates Todd Gilliland and Noah Gragson, who start 24th and 36th, respectively. It's unclear what effect NASCAR's revocation of FRM's charter will have on the team's performance, especially after their appeal was denied. However, it's pretty rare for teams to DNQ anywhere, except the Daytona 500 these days, so it will likely have little effect. Smith has been the best FRM driver all season and is likely the best option for DFS play, especially when noting that he improved from 37th to 24th in last year's race, indicating he has some definite potential for place-ifdferential points. However, Dover is a track where speed tends to be paramount because it is so easy to be lapped, and FRM doesn't have a lot of speed. He's worth a shot if you want to start several more expensive drivers, but there are better options elsewhere.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
July 20, 2025
Todd Gilliland has his best-ever starting performance at Dover, where he starts 24th after qualifying was rained out, even though he is currently lower in points than he finished any previous season. When considering both that fact and the fact that he has never finished better than 25th here, he is very likely to lose positions in this race from his starting position and is unlikely to score many DFS points. His 31st-place finish last year is fairly unrepresentative because he had an early crash and finished 21 laps down, but even when he did not have trouble in 2022 and 2023, he finished four laps down both times. You can likely expect more of the same on Sunday. For DFS play, Gilliland is best avoided, even at the low price of $5,400.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
July 20, 2025
Even by his very low standards, Cody Ware has not been terrible at Dover Motor Speedway. In five starts, he has an average finish of 34th. He crashed out in both 2018 and 2021 and has never finished better than 13 laps down here. In general, drivers for the slowest teams should be avoided at Dover because it is substantially easier to get lapped there than at most other tracks. The only places where you might conceivably want to start Ware are either tracks that are long enough that the slower cars won't get lapped or races that have a lot of attrition, but neither of those apply to Dover as only an average of five failed to finish here in the Next Gen era. Even with Ware costing only $4,700 and starting 35th, you should not be tempted.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
July 19, 2025
Don't sleep on AJ Allmendinger in this weekend's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Dover Motor Speedway. Over the last two Cup Series races here, Allmendinger has walked away with finishes of 13th- and 18th-place, and over his last eight starts at "The Monster Mile," he's ended up 22nd or better six times. While those numbers aren't earth-shattering, you have to consider the speed the No. 16 Chevrolet has had on intermediates in 2025. Allmendinger finished ninth at Bristol back in April (another concrete track), plus he came home eighth at Las Vegas, and fourth at Charlotte. At just $6,600 on DraftKings, it is absolutely worth taking a chance and rolling the dice with AJ Allmendinger at Dover this weekend. His starting position of 17th-place is mid-pack enough to give him some Place Differential upside, but also forward enough that his overall ownership in tournaments should be relatively low.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: The Tennessean
July 19, 2025
Shane van Gisbergen has been the talk of the NASCAR world lately, as the Trackhouse Racing driver now has three wins on the season after his dominating performance at Sonoma last weekend. You can expect SVG to come back to Earth this weekend at Dover, though, as the series returns to oval racing and gets away from the road courses. Although we have seen some improvement from van Gisbergen on intermediates lately (he finished 14th at Charlotte and 18th at Michigan), his sixth-place starting spot for Dover this weekend makes him an easy fade in DFS on Sunday. SVG has never made a Cup Series start at "The Monster Mile" and in his lone Xfinity Series start here (last season) he finished 18th after starting 31st. A top-20 finish on Sunday would be a good day for SVG and this No. 88 team, but that's not the type of performance DFS players should be targeting due to the negative Place Differential likelihood.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: Racing-Reference
July 19, 2025
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has been a positive place-differential machine this season, and that is likely to happen again at Dover Motor Speedway this weekend. Thanks to this weekend's starting lineup being set by the metric, Stenhouse will roll off the starting grid from 34th place when the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 goes green at Dover on Sunday. If Stenhouse has just an average race, though, he should finish much better than that. In the Next Gen era, he has posted finishes of second, 15th, and 35th at Dover, and that last one was due to a wreck in last year's race. At just $6,200 on DraftKings, Stenhouse is a cheap place-differential option that could challenge for a top-15 finish if things go right on Sunday. Stenhouse has finished inside that mark in 10 of his 21 career starts at Dover.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: ifantasyrace
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