4 weeks agoMartin Truex, Jr. is the favorite to win the Toyota Owners 400 this weekend. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver looked strong in practice on Saturday, especially on the long runs, which are going to be a key factor in this weekend's race. Truex is a three-time winner at Richmond Raceway and has led 50 or more laps in 10 of the last 14 races at this track. In the four NextGen races at Richmond, Truex has had the second-best average running position and ranks second-best in average finish as well. In DFS contests, Truex is a great pick, as he has a little bit of place differential upside since he starts seventh, as well as dominator potential. His $10,800 price tag on DraftKings is well worth it this weekend.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: Action Network
4 weeks agoChristopher Bell came into the Toyota Owners 400 race weekend as one of the favorites to win the race, but the Joe Gibbs Racing driver is going to have some work to do on Sunday night. Bell's No. 20 Toyota bobbled a bit during his qualifying run on Saturday morning and Bell wasn't able to recover, as he will start from back in 29th when the race goes green. Bell is used to not qualifying well at Richmond Raceway, though, as he has started outside of the top 20 in each of the last four races now. Over the previous three, though, he has posted finishes of 20th, 4th, and 2nd, so there isn't much to be concerned about this weekend. From a DFS perspective, Bell is one of the highest-priced drivers on DraftKings for Richmond ($11,000) and fantasy players could have to make a tough decision on whether to chase place differential points with Bell or dominator points with someone else. Bell is definitely a safe DFS option this weekend because of his deep starting position.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: Jayski
4 weeks agoDeath. Taxes. Denny Hamlin contending at Richmond Raceway. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has finished sixth or better in 13 of the last 16 races at this track, including a win in the first NextGen race here. Over those four races in this new car, Hamlin has the best average running position, the best average finish, and the second-most fastest laps. In short, this is a great track for Denny, and that's why he's one of the favorites to win this weekend's Toyota Owners 400 despite qualifying 11th. For DFS contests, Hamlin combines place differential upside as well as dominator and winning potential, so he makes for a good pick--even at that high $11,200 price tag on DraftKings.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: Win The Race
4 weeks agoChris Buescher may not be the first driver that comes to mind when the NASCAR Cup Series visits a short, flat track, but he should be in your top tier. Buescher is the most recent race winner at Richmond Raceway, as he won here last July despite starting relatively deep in the field (26th). This weekend, Buescher had a better qualifying effort and will roll off the starting grid from 14th for the Toyota Owners 400. Can he repeat the race-winning performance, though? Buescher was very happy with his car after practice on Saturday and had good speed to back it up (he was fourth in ten-lap average). In DraftKings contests, he looks to be a great pick at just $9,300 with such high upside. For what it's worth, Phoenix the most comparable track to Richmond, and Buescher came home with a runner-up finish there earlier this month.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: Jayski
4 weeks agoDaniel Hemric has been the slowest full-time driver of 2024 with a speed percentile of 17.51. Don't expect that to change much after today's race at Richmond as he qualified a mere 34th only ahead of the Rick Ware cars of Kaz Grala and Justin Haley. Although Hemric finished all three of starts at Richmond, he hasn't competed there since 2019 and never finished on the lead lap or led a lap with a best finish of 19th. In the Xfinity Series, he was better with three top fives and 102 laps led, but short tracks aren't really his discipline in the Cup Series, as all three of his top-10 finishes have came on superspeedways. When you further consider that he has no experience at Richmond in the NextGen car, he'll likely finish several laps down in this weekend's race.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 weeks agoAlthough Justin Haley delivered two of Rick Ware Racing's best-ever performances in his last two races, earning the team the best average running position in back-to-back events, his last race at Circuit of the Americas was overshadowed by a post-race disqualification when it was revealed that his car was too light. The last-place finish culminated in him getting a poor qualifying draw at Richmond, which resulted in him qualifying 36th and last next to his teammate Kaz Grala. Richmond isn't a particularly strong track for Haley as he has never finished better than 21st, finished on the lead lap, or led a lap in his career, and now he is driving a Rick Ware car that is probably slower than the Kaulig car he drove in 2022 and 2023. Considering all that and the poor Ford speed, Haley seems poised for a rough outing. Still, though, he is a relatively safe and cheap DFS option, as his $5,300 price tag on DraftKings and his last-place starting spot gives him upside without much risk.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 weeks agoKaz Grala will be making his first NASCAR Cup Series start at Richmond this weekend, and Richmond was actually one of Grala's most productive tracks in the Xfinity Series, as he scored top-10 finishes in his last three starts there culminating in a fourth-place finish at last year's spring event, tying for his best career finish. He did outqualify teammate Justin Haley in 35th this weekend, but they are starting alongside each other in the last row so it seems like they probably won't have the speed to contend. The fact that they both have Fords in a race where the Fords look like they are going to be slow doesn't help. Even if Grala is something of a Richmond specialist, the fact that he has been significantly slower than Haley--he has a speed percentile of 19.50 to Haley's 32.68--also indicates that he won't likely contend.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 weeks agoTy Dillon makes his debut in the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series this weekend at Richmond for Kaulig Racing, but don't expect him to do much. Similarly to Harrison Burton and Austin Cindric, Dillon has finished every race at Richmond he's started but has never led a lap or really done anything in his past races. He has a best finish of 17th in 2022. Last year Ty Dillon's speed percentile was 18.68 on short tracks, a little better than his overall speed percentile of 14.00, and he was actually faster on those tracks than his teammate, Corey LaJoie, but still, he has been extremely mediocre and when considering he is starting 33rd longside his teammate Daniel Hemric, it's hard to even imagine Dillon getting a top 20 finish unless there's a lot of attrition, which there usually hasn't been at Richmond recently.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 weeks agoAustin Cindric has not been particularly strong at Richmond. Although he has finished all five of his attempts, he has never finished on the lead lap, led a lap, or posted a result better than 12th. His average finish of 22.8 is below average even though the Fords were generally strong in most of those races, with Cindric's teammate Joey Logano finishing in the top ten in four of those five events. Cindric is not known for his short track prowess as his speed percentile last year on those tracks was a miserable 23.38. At Bristol earlier this year, his speed percentile was even worse than that (17.65). When you further consider based on practice and qualifying that the Fords aren't as fast this year as they were in 2022 and 2023, it seems like it'll be a rough race for Cindric. Considering he qualified up in ninth for the Toyota Owners 400, you should probably fade him in DFS.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 weeks agoAlthough Jeff Burton led more laps at Richmond International Raceway than any other track, his son Harrison has not been nearly as successful. Although Harrison Burton has finished all four of his Richmond starts, he has never finished better than 18th or led a lap in any of his Richmond races to date. This weekend, after qualifying 29th in a race where the Fords seem to be slower than the Toyotas and the Chevrolets, it seems extremely unlikely that Harrison will contend, especially after finishing 27th and 32nd in the last two races on shorter ovals at Phoenix and Bristol. His race in the previous short track race at Bristol was faster than usual, as his speed percentile of 41.18 was his second-best this season, but last year his speed percentile on short tracks was 14.69. Don't expect much from Burton on Sunday.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 weeks agoDaniel Suarez will start 20th in Sunday's Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway. Despite Chevrolet earning the top four starting positions for Sunday's race, Suarez struggled to find the same speed that his fellow bowties did, which isn't really surprising given his history at this track. In his
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4 weeks agoRicky Stenhouse Jr. will start 24th in the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway. After winning the Daytona 500 and tying a career-high nine top 10 finishes in 2023, there was some optimism surrounding the 14-year Cup veteran entering the season. While nobody was expecting him to be
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4 weeks agoRyan Preece will start 16th in the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway. Despite only posting the 13th fastest speed in practice (119.58 mph) Preece is still one of the top value options on this weekend's slate. In his two starts at Richmond in 2023, the Stewart-Haas Racing star improved his position by an average of 10.5 spots, and even managed to finish in the top five in the July race. For his efforts in these two races, Preece averaged 44.53 DraftKings points which is higher than what perennial Cup contenders like William Byron, Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, and Martin Truex Jr earned over this same span. At a salary of just $ 6,500 on DraftKings, Preece would only need to finish 13th to hit value, which is certainly within reason based on what he did last year. Given his success at this track last season, and at a salary of just $6,500, the No. 41 looks like one of the top value plays this weekend in DFS.
--Adam Erhardt - RotoBallerSource: Racing-Reference.info
4 weeks agoJohn Hunter Nemechek will start 18th in Sunday's Toyota Owners 400. Given that he has finished in the top five in each of his last three Xfinity appearances at this track and that he won the Truck race here in 2021, there is a lot to like about Nemechek heading into this weekend's race. While some may point out that he finished 30th in his only Cup start at this track in 2020, it is hard to read too much into that finish. Not only is the car completely different today from what it was four years ago, but he has matured significantly as a driver over that span. Between the consistency he has shown at this track in Xfinity and Truck, the fact that his salary is just $6,400 this weekend on DraftKings, and that he drives for the manufacturer that is sponsoring Sunday's race, John Hunter Nemechek looks like a value play that you need to target in DFS this weekend.
--Adam Erhardt - RotoBallerSource: Racing-Reference.info
4 weeks agoCorey Lajoie will start 21st in Sunday's Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway. In 12 Cup starts at Richmond, Lajoie has never finished in the top 10 and has an average finish of 28.1, which is the 33rd worst among active drivers. His average finish of 26th and DraftKings average of 8.97 in the three races in this year's modified aerodynamic package for short/road courses are equally disappointing. Even Saturday's practice session was largely unimpressive as the second-generation Cup star produced the 33rd slowest time of the day (22.907). Between his struggles at this track and his underwhelming performances this season, we recommend having little to no exposure to the No. 7 in DFS this weekend.
--Adam Erhardt - RotoBallerSource: Racing-Reference.info
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