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Mike Trout 2021 Outlook: Changing Profile Still Deserves Consideration As Top Pick
Angels superstar Mike Trout continues to be excellent at baseball, but the shape of his greatness appears to be changing. He hit .281/.390/.603 with 17 long balls over 241 PAs in 2020, but fantasy managers may have wanted more than one steal and a higher average. His Statcast Sprint Speed declined slightly (28.9 ft./sec vs. 29.3 in 2019), and Trout's defensive metrics have indicated some loss of athleticism for two years now. As such, his days of 30+ steals are probably over. Trout's 23.2 K% was a career-worst, but his 17.4% chase rate was a career-best while his 6.4 SwStr% matched 2019. In short, Trout appears poised for favorable batting average regression. Trout is also adapting by becoming even more of a power hitter. His career FB% is 41.2, but he crushed that mark in both 2019 (49.2%) and 2020 (50.3%). His Statcast contact quality metrics are excellent (96.1 mph average airborne exit velocity, 15% Brls/BBE in 2020), so more fly balls are generally good for his fantasy performance. Trout may not be the five-category threat he once was, but the combination of a strong average with elite OBP, HR, and counting stats should still have the 29-year-old in the conversation for the first overall pick. His current ADP of 6.03 is a steal.
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