RADIO
Merrill Kelly 2024 Fantasy Baseball Outlook: Stable Workhorse Seeing Late Bloom In Strikeouts
11 months agoArizona Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly once again started 30 games in 2023, totaling 177 2/3 innings with a 12-8 record and 3.29 ERA. More importantly, in his age-34 season, Kelly saw an uptick in strikeouts, with a career-high 25.9 K% compared to 22.0 K% in 2022. A significant factor in this increase in strikeouts should be credited to his high 32.9 chase% compared to his 29.9 chase% the year prior. A look under the hood shows that his changeup was effective in 2023. This pitch generated a 32% whiff rate in 2023 compared to 28.0% in 2022. In addition, it produced a minuscule .234 SLG, while in 2022, it produced a hefty .361 SLG. While his overall average exit velocity of 89.6 mph was below average, it is encouraging to see a 34-year-old find untapped strikeout numbers this late in his career. Kelly will provide a stable option as a starter over the long course of the season that is not common in baseball today. He may not be why you win your league, but I doubt he will lose it, and a few extra punchouts along the way are an unexpected plus. ATC projects Kelly to start 29 games with 11 wins and a higher 3.94 ERA, making him a solid pick at his current NFBC ADP of 152.
