April 6, 2022

New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom was on pace for one of the best pitching seasons in MLB history in 2021 before he was shut down in early July due to health issues that included a lat strain and partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament. In 15 starts, deGrom posted a 7-2 record with a 1.08 ERA and 0.55 WHIP over 92 innings pitched. He struck out 146 while walking just eleven batters. Looking at his underlying metrics, his xERA was 1.54, his strikeout rate was 45.1%, his xWOBA against was .190, and his walk rate was 3.4% - numbers that were all in the top 1% of MLB and the best of his career. deGrom was an unquestioned lockdown, matchup-proof fantasy ace heading into 2022 if he could remain healthy. Unfortunately, toward the end of the truncated spring training season, deGrom experienced tightness in his right shoulder. An MRI exam revealed a stress reaction on his scapula. As a result, deGrom has been shut down from throwing until at least May before more tests are done. Assuming he gets a clean bill of health, best case scenario would mean a season debut sometime in June. More likely, deGrom will be out until the All-Star break which significantly impacts his fantasy value. deGrom's ADP has declined from 22 to 33 since the MRI and diagnosis, an ADP which is still too high given the injury risk and amount of time deGrom will be sidelined. When healthy, deGrom is a lock for elite strikeout totals with potential league-leading ratios and decent win totals with the additions of outfielders Starling Marte and Mark Canha to the Mets lineup. Once off the injured list at some point over the summer, deGrom will be handled very carefully by the Mets to prevent further injury to his shoulder and/or his UCL, further impacting his fantasy value. This would include forcing deGrom to skip starts and dial down the number of 100+ mph pitches thrown. deGrom should be a difference-maker for managers in the second half of the season if he can get 15 starts and close to 100 IP in 2022 (this is a big "if"). He's an ace who absolutely should be rostered in all formats, but his recent, significant health concerns are not for the faint of heart.--Brad Camara - RotoBaller