Gavin Lux 2021 Outlook: Delayed Breakout Makes for Strong Upside Pick
4 years agoLos Angeles Dodgers second baseman Gavin Lux was a strong breakout candidate and draft sleeper in 2020 after being ranked the #2 prospect in all of baseball. He was supposed to compete for a starting job early on and earn a place in the potent Dodger lineup, possibly earning Rookie of the Year honors. Instead, he reported to camp late after the delayed spring training and wasn't prepared to join the big-league club. With no minor league season to speak of, Lux spent much of the season at the team's alternative site. He was finally called up on August 27 but in one month of play, he produced a slash line of .175/.246/.349 with three home runs in 63 at-bats.
The letdown has led to a depressed ADP for Lux around 240 overall in early NFBC drafts. The uncertainty surrounding his pro readiness makes him too risky to select as a starting second baseman. He now becomes a late flier with tremendous upside, however. Lux has huge power potential for a middle infielder and had shown mastery of every minor-league level until last season. Kike Hernandez signed with the Boston Red Sox so only utility player Chris Taylor stands in the way of regular playing time. It is really Lux himself that stands in his own way. If he is motivated and mature enough to handle the show, he could be a breakout performer (finally). Manager Dave Roberts has praised Taylor for his defensive versatility, meaning they like him all over the field and not just second base. It also helps that Lux has been swinging a hot bat this spring. Over 31 Cactus League at-bats, he's slashing .387/.424/.484 with five RBI. He's also hitting .429 vs. LHP (seven AB's). Lux looks like a safe bet to make the Opening Day roster and if he continues to hit well then he'll be getting regular AB's, which his current ADP isn't factoring in. We recommend pouncing on Lux shortly after the first 12 second basemen are off the draft board, possibly as high as 150 overall.