11 months agoJavier transformed from a swingman into a bona fide frontline starter in 2022, posting a 2.54 ERA in 148.2 innings for Houston. The peripherals supported his performance as well, with Javier boasting a 2.43 xERA, 3.16 FIP, and monster 11.74 K/9 that season. He was considered a top-20 starter coming into 2023, but regressed in every sense of the word. His ERA jumped two runs to 4.56, his 4.58 FIP suggests he earned the spike, and his strikeout rate cratered to 8.83 K/9. Primarily a two-pitch pitcher, Javier enjoyed unsustainable performances with slider and fastball in 2022. He had a .234 BABIP with his fastball and a .195 BABIP with his slider in 2022, but a .258 BABIP on the fastball and .267 BABIP on the slider last season. It wasn't just regression to the mean that caused this either, as Javier lost an inch of break and a an inch of drop on his slider in 2023. While Javier had a 16.9% swinging strike rate and 28.6% chase rate with his slider in 2022, he had just a 10.2% swinging strike rate and 21.5% chase rate in 2023, pitiful by comparison. One can't expect another 33.2% strikeout rate season with metrics like that, and the underlying metrics did not support the 2022 strikeout rate that season. Javier not only lost something on his slider, but his fastball velocity dipped from 93.8 MPH to 92.7 MPH in 2023. While he can likely perform better than a 4.56 ERA, 2022 seems like the outlier season and one should expect an ERA in the 3.50-4 range with a below average strikeout rate.--Elliott Baas - RotoBaller