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Chris Paddack 2021 Fantasy Outlook: A Reasonable Price Tag But A Dreary Outlook
4 years agoThe young San Diego Padres right-hander really took a step backward after his strong rookie year. Chris Paddack saw big losses in strikeout rate (23.7%), ERA (4.73) and WHIP (1.22) in 2020, really hurting fantasy managers who used a top-50 pick on him. Unfortunately for Paddack, his 2020 numbers seem more believable than his 2019 numbers. He has a very limited arsenal, with 90% of his pitches being either a four-seamer or a changeup. That would be OK if both of those pitches were very good, but his fastball does not seem to be -- .590 expected slugging percentage, 20.9% whiff rate on the pitch last season. That leaves him overly reliant on his great changeup, and you simply cannot get away with that for long in the major leagues. His age (24) and great command (career 5.3% walk rate) keep him relevant for fantasy purposes, and he does have a reasonable price tag for the 2021 season (going outside of the top-30 starting pitchers). That makes him worthy of consideration, but he is unlikely to provide huge dividends, even at this cost.
