May 25, 2019

Fantasy gamers are in love with the idea of Aaron Jones. They so desperately want him to be the next great Packers RB. After all, Aaron Rodgers' RB1 has tremendous value. If Jones were guaranteed 250+ touches, I would tell you to run to draft him in the second round. Unfortunately, no matter how hard you try and convince yourself on Jones, he is being overdrafted. Jones is clearly better at football than Jamaal Williams. But, that doesn't matter. This is not an overreaction go "coachspeak," but the simple truth: Williams is going to see the field. Jones will never be a three down back on the Packers and he will never be treated like the workhorse we know he can be. Jones' 2018 touch count, extrapolated to 16 games (because Jones has missed multiple games due to injury in each of his first two seasons), puts him somewhere in the low 200s in terms of touches. That is probably close to his ceiling. There is also the problem of job security. As a fifth round pick, the Packers have no heavy investment in him to the point where they'll fear looking bad if they bench him. All it will take is for him to miss a couple games due to injury, and for either Williams (the Packers drafted Dexter Williams in the sixth round) to perform well in his stead and there goes Jones' primary back role. As it stands, Jones is overvalued in the third round and I would not even consider him over the WRs that typically go around him, not to mention the handful of safer RBs with similar upside.--Jason Katz