RADIO
Welcome to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series for the 2024 season! Each week, I will select one stat, choose a few pitchers with strong metrics and poor metrics, and analyze them to determine how their future performance may change. As we continue to accumulate player data, I'll take a look at the expected weighted on-base average on contact (xwOBA).
wOBA is used to establish the value a player brings per plate appearance using unintentional walks, base hits, and hit-by-pitches; it is scaled like on-base percentage. Expected wOBA takes wOBA and applies weights to each factor to predict what the factors should have been. xwOBA provides adjusted run expectancies of a batting event in the context of the season as a whole.
Expected values are helpful for fantasy valuations because they hold predictive power for future performance. Analyzing how starters performed vs. how they were expected to perform is useful as more data becomes available. Fantasy managers can take the opportunity to analyze how their teams have performed, where they have excelled, and where they may benefit from trades. Let's use xwOBA to help with this process!
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xwOBA Studs for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 26, 2024.
Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox
2-2, 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, .269 wOBA, .238 xwOBA
Garrett Crochet has made an instant fantasy impact in his first season as a starter. The 24-year-old has gone 5-4 with a 3.75 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 32.3% strikeout rate in 11 starts and 57 2/3 innings pitched. Further, his .238 xwOBA is among the best for starting pitchers. What can fantasy managers expect from him for the rest of the season?
Crochet has a lot to like without having to dig too deep. His Statcast profile is covered in red, including his walk rate. Crochet struggled with walks out of the bullpen but has improved immensely. He produced a 12.7% walk rate from 2020-2023 and has cut it in half this season with a 5.7% walk rate. This is one of the contributors to his strong xwOBA.
He has also done a great job avoiding contact due to his strikeout skills. His four-seam fastball has plenty of velocity at 96.8 MPH, leading to a strong 11.9% swinging-strike rate. His cutter and slider are his true swing-and-miss pitches, with respective 18.0% and 16.4% swinging-strike rates.
Crochet has been an exciting fantasy development since joining the starting rotation. His strikeout skills have played up even more, he has corralled his walks, and his .238 xwOBA and 2.65 SIERA suggest that his avoidance of contact and weak contact generated are legit.
The only question is how far the White Sox will let him go. Crochet is already at a career-high IP and had never been stretched out as a starter in the minors. Fantasy managers may consider trying to sell high on him after a few more starts to capitalize on his value before he hits an innings limit. However, they would have to get an excellent return, as he should continue to be a higher-end fantasy contributor even with an innings cap.
Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
3-2, 3.06 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .288 wOBA, .258 xwOBA
Hunter Greene has finally started to look like a high-end fantasy prospect after several disappointing seasons. The 24-year-old is 3-2 with a 3.06 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 26.7% strikeout rate in 11 starts and 64 2/3 IP. His .258 xwOBA supports his strong start and is much lower than his .296 career average. Has Greene turned the corner and can fantasy managers fully buy in?
Nothing has changed for Greene in the walks department, as his 9.4% walk rate is slightly high overall and is in line with his 9.3% career mark. Therefore, his big drop in WHIP is due to fewer hits allowed. Greene's batted-ball profile seems to be the big contributor. Specifically, he has done a much better job avoiding hard contact this season.
Greene's average exit velocity this season is in the 77th percentile of baseball at 87.5 MPH compared to an 89.4-MPH career average. Similarly, his hard-hit rate of 32.3% is in the 85th percentile of baseball and is much lower than his 40.0% career average. He has always been a flyball pitcher, but he has gotten different results to his benefit this season.
Home runs have been a problem for Greene, but he has avoided damaging contact in the air this season. His fastball was the main culprit last season, as he allowed a lot of hard contact with a 20-degree launch angle. However, he has lowered both the exit velocity off the pitch and the launch angle this season. He has also seen improvements with his slider, as he has induced weak pop-ups with the pitch. Overall, his HR/FB% has dropped from 14.3% in 2023 to just 5.5% in 2024.
Greene has taken big steps forward this season because he has avoided hard contact and hasn't allowed nearly as many barrels, or hard-hit balls with an optimal launch angle. Despite all his improvements, his .288 wOBA, while decent, is quite a bit higher than his xwOBA. This is even more encouraging for fantasy managers, as it suggests he has more room to improve. I am ready to buy into Greene given what we have seen so far.
xwOBA Duds for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 26, 2024.
James Paxton, Los Angeles Dodgers
5-0, 3.49 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, .328 wOBA, .366 xwOBA
James Paxton has put together decent peripherals in his first season with the Dodgers, going 5-0 with a 3.49 ERA in nine starts and 49 IP. However, his 1.43 WHIP, 13.5% strikeout rate, and .366 xwOBA tell a completely different story. He has provided some fantasy value so far and has been a high-end fantasy contributor previously in his career, but is his current performance too good to be true?
The underlying numbers overwhelmingly suggest yes. For starters, Paxton's WHIP and xwOBA are so high because of his poor 13.5% walk rate. He has also allowed a lot of contact with an 82.6% contact rate. This has not been soft contact, as his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 41st and 35th percentiles, respectively.
Paxton's strikeout numbers have also fallen off a cliff. He has shifted to mainly a two-pitch mix of a four-seam fastball and a knuckle curveball. His curveball has gotten relatively little movement compared to the rest of his career, resulting in a career-low 12.4% swinging-strike rate. His fastball has dropped almost two MPH from 2023 to 2024. This is generally concerning, as is his 10.5% to 6.3% swinging-strike rate drop.
Paxton's wins and ERA resemble the player of old, but nothing else does. His walk rate has spiked, he has allowed a lot of hard contact, he has limited his pitch mix to his detriment, and he has seen a velocity dip.
Injuries have derailed Paxton's career, and while he has managed 5 1/3IP per start, the poor underlying numbers and velocity dip present reasons to be concerned. Paxton is currently rostered in 45% of leagues, which is way too high. Fantasy managers should try to sell him for anything they can get before his underlying metrics catch up to him.
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
3-3, 4.47 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, .341 wOBA, .349 xwOBA
Kevin Gausman has not been the fantasy ace fantasy managers were expecting. His 3-3 record, 4.47 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and 25.1% strikeout rate have been pedestrian at best. His .349 xwOBA is one of the highest among starting pitchers and inspires even less confidence. After numerous seasons of being a top fantasy contributor, is it time to move on from Gausman?
The good news for fantasy managers is there is plenty under the hood to suggest that Gausman has gotten unlucky. Starting with his high WHIP, his 6.2% walk rate is actually slightly lower than his career average. The issue has been hits allowed, as Gausman has been saddled with a career-high .367 BABIP and a 9.8% barrel rate.
This is peculiar because Gausman's batted-ball profile is not much different from what it has been the past couple of seasons. His 89.3-MPH average exit velocity is similar to his 2021-23 marks, and his 38.8% hard-hit rate is on the low end of his 2021-2023 range. The discrepancy in his batted-ball profile and BABIP suggests that he has gotten unlucky on balls in play. This is further suggested by the discrepancy between his 4.47 ERA and his 3.39 SIERA.
One concern for fantasy managers about Gausman is his health. Gausman sat out a good portion of the spring with right shoulder fatigue. He has experienced a 0.5-MPH dip on his slider and a one-MPH drop on his fastball and splitter. Again, his peripherals are worse, which fantasy managers may want to relate to. However, as described above, his underlying batted-ball profile hasn't changed from when he was getting excellent results.
Gausman has let fantasy managers down this season, but there are many reasons to doubt his peripherals and high xwOBA. He has decreased his walk rate and has gotten unlucky on balls in play. As such, I consider Gausman to be a buy-low candidate given his recent career track record as a fantasy ace. He is coming off one of his best starts of the season, which may raise his asking price slightly, but he is absolutely worth inquiring about.
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